Thoughts of the day: October 11, 2022

photos: Chris Spears

A few thoughts to jump start your Tuesday morning:

STOPPING THE THIRD DOWN ADVENTURE

Third-and-forever. It’s supposed to favor the defense.

“Any time it’s third and long, if you know the numbers, you’re anticipating you’ve got a good percentage chance to win,” Billy Napier said Monday morning.

All the analytics say that’s true, so why do the Gators struggle so much on third down? Overall, they’ve allowed six opponents to convert 50.59 percent (43-85) of their third downs. The only time all year the Gators have been good on third down is game two against Kentucky when the Wildcats managed only 4-13 conversions. In the four games since, the Gators have allowed South Florida to convert 8-15, Tennessee 6-9, Eastern Washington 8-18 and Missouri 9-17.

Missouri converted 3-6 when five or fewer yards were needed. The Tigers were 2-5 converting between six and nine yards. They were 3-6 when it was third and 10 or more.

The three conversions of more than 10 yards were all in the fourth quarter when Mizzou converted a third-and-22, a third-and-15 and a third-and-18. That’s the part that has Florida fans howling.

On the third-and-22, Brady Cook threw a dump down pass to running back Cody Shrader. It should have been stopped for eight yards but there was a missed tackle and somehow Shrader split three UF defenders to get five yards past the first down marker.

On the third-and-15, Cook threw a pass that seemed to hang in the air long enough that someone could have called a fair catch. Mekhi Miller ran under it, dived and made the catch for an 18-yard gain and a first down. Miller was wide open on the third-and-18 on Mizzou’s final drive, making a 20-yard catch that kept the Tigers’ hopes of an upset alive.

How can this happen? How is it that the Gators can play such good defense on first and second downs to force a long third down only to blow the coverage or miss tackles? The third-and-22 and third-and-15 conversions were chunk plays that allowed Mizzou to cut Florida’s lead to 24-17. The final conversion gave the Tigers hope that they could spring the upset in the final two minutes of the game.

Asked Monday after the third-and-long issues, Billy Napier replied, “I think it’s all very correctable. Some of it’s missed tackling. Some of it is pass rush lane integrity. Some of it is leveraging coverage and then some we’re just not – maybe we’re not in a great call here or there. So it’s a combination of a lot of things.”

Okay, we saw the missed tackles on the third-and-22. On that one we also saw a problem with the pass rush. Cook should have been sacked. On the third-and-15 and again on the third-and-18, the Gators got some pressure but not enough.

“I don’t necessarily know that there’s one thing we can pinpoint, but it’s certainly something we have done really well at times week-to-week, and Saturday was an area where we struggled a little bit,” Napier said. ““We’ll go back to work there and evaluate it objectively and try to put our players in better position and then try to get the players to execute much better.”

The execution has to be better. LSU is converting 45.68 percent of its third downs (37-81), which ranks fourth in the SEC and 33rd nationally. Against Tennessee last week, the Tigers were 7-15 on third down.

What should keep the Florida coaching staff up burning the midnight oil is stopping LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels, who extends plays with his feet. He’s the Tigers’ leading rusher with 359 yards (4.72 per carry) and he’s particularly dangerous on third down when he scrambles or gets outside the pocket.

“This quarterback has made significant impact on the game with his feet,” Napier said. So, they’re certainly going to be a big part of our planning and the dilemma that you have on defense.”

The Tigers have allowed Daniels to be sacked 21 times, which is 124th nation. On paper, Florida’s best defense on third downs against LSU will be to keep Daniels in the pocket so he can’t get outside the pocket where he’s at his dangerous best.

UF basketball practice

The unquestioned star of Monday’s practice was Alex Fudge, who spent the day with the second unit. Was this for motivation? If it was it certainly had an effect because Fudge was all over the floor, particularly on the defensive end. With Colin Castleon on a sprint out fast break, Fudge ran him down and blocked Castleton’s attempted dunk from behind, easily the best defensive play of the day. He has two brilliant dunks, one off a pass from Riley Kugel on a fast break and the other after he tipped the ball away defensively then took a pass from Denzel Aberdeen for a monstrous jam at the other end.

Kugel had a rather spectacular baseline dunk to go a long three and several nice defensive plays. He is fearless taking the ball to the rack.

Niels Lane continues to play spectacular defense. He had a strong layup on a pass from Fudge on a give-and-go.

Kowacie Reeves finished on the break with a spectacular two hand dunk off a lob from Trey Bonham. Both Bonham and Myreon Jones had good days shooting the 3-ball. Bonham is in range from other area codes.

It was probably the best day of practice yet for Aberdeen, who had a buzzer beater three off a pass from Lane and a turn around move that finished with a banker on the left block.

This was the best day rebounding the basketball for CJ Felder. Felder had some open looks from the three-point line that just wouldn’t go down.

Jason Jitoboh showed nice hands and that soft floater on a cross-court pass from Jones.

SEC football

No. 3 Alabama (6-0, 3-0 SEC): With all eyes on injured Heisman Trophy quarterback Bryce Young ahead of Saturday’s showdown with 6th-ranked Tennessee in Knoxville, Nick Saban said, “Hopefully we’re going to try to get him ready to play this week, but this is something where nobody can predict how quickly this is going to give him an opportunity to be able to go out and do what he needs to do. We’ll see as the week progresses.”

Arkansas (3-3, 1-3 SEC): HBC Sam Pittman says quarterback KJ Jefferson, who sat the loss to Mississippi State due to concussion protocol, is expected to be ready to play Saturday when the Razorbacks visit BYU.

Auburn (3-3, 1-2 SEC): There is speculation among Auburn fans that if and when Bryan Harsin is fired that former Carolina Panthers HBC Matt Rhule could be a leading candidate. Rhule, who was a winning coach at Temple and Baylor before going to the NFL, was 11-27 with the Panthers.

No. 1 Georgia (6-0, 3-0 SEC): Running back Branson Robinson, whose 12 carried netted 98 yards and a touchdown, was named SEC Freshman of the Week.

No. 22 Kentucky (4-2, 2-1 SEC): Quarterback Will Levis who missed the loss to South Carolina because his foot was in a boot, practiced on Monday according to HBC Mark Stoops but his status is listed as day-to-day.

LSU (4-2, 2-1 SEC): Sophomore center Garrett Dellenger will miss the Tigers’ next two games after suffering an MCL injury.

No. 16 Mississippi State (5-1, 2-1 SEC): Quarterback Will Rogers was name SEC Co-Offensive Player of the Week after completing 31 passes for 395 yards and three touchdowns in the Bulldogs’ win over Arkansas … Saturday at Kentucky, the Bulldogs will be facing a defense that has registered only eight sacks so far this season. Led by quarterback Will Rogers, the Bulldogs have the fifth-ranked passing offense in the country (354.7 yards per game).

Missouri (2-4, 0-3 SEC): Missouri’s three SEC losses are by a combined 14 points.

No. 9 Ole Miss (6-0, 2-0 SEC): Tight end Michael Trigg could be out the rest of the season with a broken collarbone suffered in the win over Vanderbilt … Wide receiver Jonathan Mingo, whose nine catches against Vanderbilt netted a school record 247 yards and two touchdowns, was named the SEC Co-Offensive Player of the Week.

South Carolina (4-2, 1-2 SEC): HBC Shane Beamer said the Gamecocks have great confidence now that they’ve won three games in a row and “our best football is still out there.” … Jovaughn Gwynn, who graded out at 88 percent and allowed no sacks or quarterback pressures against Kentucky, was named SEC Offensive Lineman of the Week.

No. 6 Tennessee (6-0, 2-0 SEC): Starting safety Jaylen McCullough, who had seven tackles in the Vols 40-13 win over LSU in Baton Rouge, was arrested and charged with felony aggravated assault after allegedly punching a man Saturday night. The man allegedly lost consciousness and had several broken and missing teeth … Placekicker Chase McGrath was named SEC Special Teams Player of the Week after he hit 4-5 field goals and four extra points against LSU. Named SEC Defensive Lineman of the Week was Byron Young, who had five tackles, five QB pressures and 2.5 sacks against LSU.

Texas A&M (3-3, 1-2 SEC): The Aggies are dead last in the SEC in offense, averaging just 333.5 yards per game. The Aggies are next to last in the league in scoring at 21.5 points per game.

Vanderbilt (3-3, 0-2 SEC): Running back Rocko Griffin, who had 517 rushing yards and four touchdowns last year, has entered the transfer portal. Griffin had only 86 yards on nine carries so far in 2022.

Our SEC orphans in the Big 12

Oklahoma (3-3, 0-3 Big 12): Quarterback Dillon Gabriel, who has been under concussion protocol since taking a vicious hit against TCU a couple of weeks ago, continues to be evaluated ahead of Saturday’s game with Kansas.

No. 23 Texas (4-2, 2-1 Big 12): The big difference since 2021 for Texas is the defense. A year ag, the Longhorns gave up 31.1 points per game. This season they’re allowing only 17.8.

ONE FINAL PITHY THOUGHT: Matt Rhule has been fired by the Carolina Panthers. He will have to squeeze by on the $40 million the Panthers will be paying him not to coach their team any longer. Some of the buyout money will be offset when he goes back to his college coaching roots, but if he’s vindictive, he’ll take a bare minimum and for himself and tell the school to spend lavishly so that he can have one of the great coaching staffs in the country.

Due to the way he did such a quick turnaround at Baylor, taking the Bears from 1-11 to 7-6 to 11-3 in three years, Rhule is going to be the hottest coach on the market. There are already five Division I openings. The best two are Nebraska and Wisconsin. Auburn will be in search of a new coach any day now when it gives Bryan Harsin an $18 million going away gift.

Money is not going to be an object for him since he has that big buyout from the Panthers, but the right fit will be. Is there a job out there that he really wants? Wisconsin and Nebraska have money but lousy recruiting bases and the glamor jobs in the Big Ten are all in the East. Wisconsin just fired a coach who was 67-26. Nebraska fans still think it’s the 1990s. Auburn has money and a great recruiting base but it’s in the same SEC division and same state as Nick Saban. Looking at things from those perspectives, Rhule can afford to wait a year if necessary. He will still be a hot ticket in a year and there may be better jobs available.