Napier Won In The Fun Belt by Recruiting Better Talent, Surrounding Himself With Coaches He Trusts.

"THOUGHTS OF THE DAY"

A delayed thoughts of the day to jump start your bye weekend.

By Franz Beard

DO WE DARE HOPE?

On October 20, 2018, the Louisiana Ragin Cajuns were taken out by Appalachian State, 27-17, in Boone. The Cajuns, whose record dropped to 3-4 under first year coach Billy Napier, couldn’t get App State off the field. The Mountaineers ran for 266 yards that day. They didn’t have to throw much because it was too easy pounding the Cajuns between the tackles.

From that point moving forward, Louisiana won four of its next five games to tie Arkansas State for the West Division championship of the Sun Belt Conference. Because one of those four wins was over co-champ Arkansas State, the Ragin Cajuns got a rematch with Appalachian State in the Sun Belt Championship Game, again in Boone, and the results weren’t all that different. Louisiana went to a bowl game where it lost to Tulane, finishing the season 7-7.

That probably doesn’t sound like much of an achievement, but fans pretty much thought the Cajuns were at rock bottom when they were 3-4. Instead, Napier rallied the troops, got the running game going in the last half of the season and started winning games in shootout fashion. The next year, they went 11-3, won their division outright and started the best three-season run in school history (33-5 from 2019-21) that concluded with a Sun Belt championship and a bowl win over Marshall.

It's easy to write off what happened at Louisiana as life in the Fun Belt, but it’s all relative. He won in the Fun Belt by recruiting better talent, surrounding himself with coaches he knows and trusts and then sticking to a plan to transform the entire football culture with emphasis on his belief that better people make better football players.

The Gators don’t have a game this weekend, which is a good thing. This is a team that for all its flaws has yet to be blown out by anyone. All three lost games could have been won just as three of the four wins could have been lost. You probably get tired of that being brought up, but it’s worth mentioning. Bryan Harsin down at Auburn tried to reassure his fan base this week that the Tigers aren’t that far off, but three of their four losses are blowouts by 14 or more points. The Gators may be terrible on defense and the offense is erratic at best, but they’ve had their chances to win every game.

So the question that should be asked is do we dare hope? I would say the answer is yes. The Gators are already out of the race to win the SEC East, but they do have five games remaining for all the kids on the team – 64 of the 85 on scholarship are freshmen and sophomores – to get experience and show improvement. Right now a 7-5 record seems to be likely, which is what the Gators were predicted in the preseason. Could they go 8-4? If they show improvement on defense and if the lights go on and stay on for Anthony Richardson then all things are possible.

Probable? Maybe not, but as we’ve seen in seven previous games, eliminate a mistake here and there and outcomes can be far different.

The SEC Soothsayer

UT-Martin (4-2) at No. 3 Tennessee (6-0): The fans in Dollywood were so happy with their win last week that they stormed the field and tore down the goal posts which caused the university to ask for donations to replace them. Let’s see, the school got $56 million last year from the SEC, will get more than $60 million next year and by 2025 will be taking in more than $100 million. And they’re asking for donations for goal posts? Of course, these things happen when it's been so long that you actually accomplished anything that you are clueless how to act in a big moment. They won’t be tearing down goal posts this weekend, not with Paycheck Tech in town. This one will be over and done with before the clock strikes zero at the end of the first quarter. What they better hope and pray for is that nobody important gets hurt because the following two games are going to be beastly and determine if the Vols make the College Football Playoff. The Sayer says sooth!: Dollywood, Dollywood Swinging 63, Paycheck Tech 3

No. 24 Mississippi State (5-2, 2-2 SEC) at No. 6 Alabama (6-1, 3-1 SEC): Did you know that since 2013, Alabama has allowed 40 or more points in a game 13 times? Take a guess what Nick Saban’s record is in games after Alabama gave up 40 or more? If you said 13-0, then you win the kewpie doll. It should be noted that this is uncharted territory for Bama, however. The last time the Tide gave up 50 points, which they did last week to Tennessee, was 1907 when Sewanee thumped them 54-4 in a game played on The Quad in Tuscaloosa. Needless to say, much has changed since 1907 including Nick Saban’s demeanor the week after (a) losing and (b) allowing 40 or more points. Nick knows the only way the Tide makes the College Football Playoff is to go 5-0 in the remaining regular season games, then knock of whoever wins the SEC East. It can be done but will require better defense than last week when Tennessee hung 52 on the Tide. The Pirate probably gets some points, but not enough to beat a rather pissed off Nick. The Sayer says sooth: Stars Fell on Alabama 40, Pirates of the Caribbean 24

No. 7 Ole Miss (7-0, 3-0 SEC) at LSU (5-2, 3-1 SEC): Everybody thinks Lane Kiffin is a heave it all over the ball yard kind of coach, but he actually likes grinding opponents to a pulp on the ground and then throwing it over the top when they try to load up the box. That’s pretty much what he’s had the Rebels doing this year and what they’ll need to do to beat LSU in Tiger Stadium Saturday. One thing Lane knows is that Jayden Daniels can’t hurt his porous defense if he can’t get on the field and the best way to keep him off the field is time-consuming drives that grind away. When the Tigers try to load the box, they don’t have anyone who can handle Jonathan Mingo or Malik Heath. At night LSU would get the edge but this is a 3:30 game. The Sayer says sooth: Mississippi Squirrel Revival 35, Opelousas Sostan 28

Texas A&M (3-3, 1-2 SEC) at South Carolina (4-2, 1-2 SEC): How embarrassing would it be for the Aggies to get bushwhacked by the Chickens at Willy Brice Saturday night? They’ve never lost to the Chickens before so this would be an all-time first. It would also have Aggie boosters anteing up money just in case the AD gives them the okay to buy out Jimbo. In Texas they say the only ones who have more money than the Aggies are God and the Longhorns, so $94.5 million is a day’s interest for a few of the more well-heeled types. The Aggies are 3-point favorites. When the season began this was supposed to be a blowout for the Aggies who were going to be in the hunt for a national title. My how things have changed. This feels like an upset is brewing. The Sayer says sooth!: Making Colonel Sanders proud 20, Not ready for prime time 13

Vanderbilt (3-4, 0-3 SEC) at Missouri (2-4, 0-3 SEC): Someone at SEC headquarters in Birmingham should be fired for not scheduling this game on Thursday night. Three years ago on October 19, 2022 Gloria Vanderbilt last won an SEC football game, ironically against Missouri. Since then the Commodores have run off an SEC record 24 consecutive losses in conference games, breaking their old record of 23. Saturday the two teams square off in a high tension battle to see who lays claim to last place in the SEC East. One team will depart Saturday as the only team in the SEC without a conference victory. Vanderbilt comes into the game on the heels of a 55-0 poleaxing at the hands of Georgia in which they managed 150 yards of offense. The Dores will be going against the fourth best defense in the SEC Saturday which is why they will keep the streak alive, even against a team whose offense basically stinks. The Sayer says sooth!: Misery Index 24, Anderson Cooper’s mother 14

Our SEC orphans in the Big 12

No. 20 Texas (5-2, 3-1 Big 12) at No. 11 Oklahoma State (6-1, 3-1 Big 12): In 21 years on the job at Okie State, Mike Gundy has exactly one Big 12 championship. He wins a lot of games but now that Georgia broke through and won the big one, he’s the king of almost. He’s not out of the Big 12 championship race, since there are no divisions and everyone plays everyone else, but he can’t afford another slip-up, particularly against the Longhorns, who also have only one loss in league play. It’s still October, but this is a must game for both teams. The Longhorns are favored to win by six, probably because the Mullet Man has been throwing lasers lately. This is in Stillwater and the Cowboys are really good at T. Boone’s place. The Sayer says sooth!: Garth Brooks alma mater 37, Willie Nelson’s favorite team 34

ONE FINAL PITHY THOUGHT: The commissioners and Notre Dame athletic director Jack Swarbrick met Thursday in an attempt to iron out the details to expand the College Football Playoff in 2024. There are numerous logistical issues that have to be resolved along with revenue distribution. Since there will be two extra layers of games with the expected 12-team tournament, will some games be played on campus or will the bowl games be incorporated so that every game will be at a neutral site?

One thing seems lost in the shuffle. For all the debate about logistics, bowls, etc., who’s going to have the television rights? And, since whoever it is that has the rights is going to be paying at least a billion dollars or more, that entity – or entities if more than one network is involved – is going to have a very large say in the who, what, where and when. It probably wouldn’t be a stretch to say the network partner(s) will have the largest say. ESPN essentially controls the bowls and in all probability will get the contract for the ESPN/ABC/Disney family of networks, particularly since it has the current CFP contract that doesn’t expire until after the 2025 playoff.

There are indeed so many items on the agenda that can and will be decided by the commissioners, but let’s not think for even a nano-second that when television speaks, that will be the final word and the colleges will nod in agreement.