Thoughts of the Day: July 13, 2026

(Photo by Chris Spears)

A few thoughts to jump start your Monday morning:

“I win. Google it.” Those are the words of Curt Cignetti, whose two seasons as the head coach at Indiana have produced 27 wins, two losses and the 2025 national championship.

Cignetti doesn’t do it with magic woofie dust. He wins, in large part because he dominates on the money down. Win on third down consistently and it tends to show in the won-lost record. Cignetti and Indiana went 16-0 last year, converting a national best 56.5 percent on third down. The Hoosiers’ defense consistently got the ball back for the offense by holding opponents to 30.1 percent of their third down conversions. Third down conversions keep the chains moving and the clock ticking. Indiana was tenth nationally in time of possession. The Hoosiers held the ball a full five minutes longer than opponents. When Indiana went 11-2 in 2024 the Hoosiers converted 47.22 percent of its offensive third downs (13^th nationally) and allowed 32.74 third down conversions on defense (15^th nationally).

Indiana serves as a barometer for what Jon Sumrall and the Gators hope to do on both sides of the ball: Move the chains, control the clock which keeps the defense off the field and get third down stops to get the offense back on the field.

In the four years prior to Sumrall taking the Florida job, the Gators struggled on both sides of the ball when it came to third down. The 2022 Gators converted 40.48 percent of their third downs, seventh in the Southeastern Conference and best of the four years Billy Napier was head coach. On the other side of the ball, the Gators were dead last on third down, allowing 49.71 percent conversions, which ranked 129^th nationally, second from the bottom nationally. In the games the Gators lost they converted 39-104 on third down (37.5 percent) and allowed 46-88 third down conversions (52.27 percent).  

Here are the numbers and both the SEC and national ranking for third down conversions on both sides of the ball for the Gators from 2023-25:

2023 (5-7 record):  Offense converted 36.91 percent on third down (10^th SEC, 86th national); defense allowed 35.62 percent conversions (6^th SEC, 36^th national). In the games the Gators lost they converted 36-93 (37.7 percent) offensively and allowed 33-88 (37.5 percent) conversions on third down.

2024 (8-5): Offense converted 37.89 percent on third down (13^th SEC, 92^nd national); defense allowed 39.67 percent conversions (11^th SEC, 75th national). In the games the Gators lost they converted 17-63 third downs (26.98 percent) and allowed 23-60 (38.3 percent) third down conversions.

2025 (4-8): Offense converted 34.21 percent on third down (15^th SEC, 116^th national); defense allowed 44.38 percent conversions (15^th SEC, 119th national). In the games the Gators lost they converted 28-100 (28 percent) on third down while allowing 57-119 (47.89 percent) third down conversions.

Four seasons, three losing records and poor performance on third down whether on offense or defense. The money down stats don’t lie.

Sumrall went 20-8 in two seasons at Tulane, taking the Green Wave to the American Conference championship game in 2024 (9-5 record) and then winning the league while earning a berth in the College Football Playoff last year (11-3 record). The 2024 Green Wave converted 50.29 percent of its third downs (4^th nationally) and held opponents to 32.95 percent (18^th nationally) on third down. The numbers regressed in 2025 when Sumrall lost heavily to graduation and had to replace the bulk of the team on both sides of the ball. Offensively Tulane converted 42.08 percent of its third downs while holding opponents to 39.57 percent.

When he took the Florida job, Sumrall’s first and most significant hire was Georgia Tech offensive coordinator Buster Faulkner. In 2025 Georgia Tech ranked No. 23 nationally and third in the ACC, converting 46.1 percent of their third downs. In all three seasons as the Tech OC, Faulkner’s offenses converted more than 40 percent of their third downs. When he served as the quarterbacks coach for Georgia’s back-to-back national champions, the Bulldogs converted 45.03 percent on third down in 2021, 51.1 percent on third down in 2022.

It is tougher to judge the hire of defensive coordinator Brad White, who was handicapped at Kentucky by predictable offenses, pedestrian offenses, particularly the last three seasons. The 2022 Wildcats had a very good quarterback in Will Levis so the offense was able to stay on the field. White’s defense gave up only 3.26 yards per rush attempt and 6.4 per pass attempt while ranking 12^th nationally overall (311 yards per game). On the money down, the Wildcats ranked 21^st nationally, allowing just 33.33 percent conversions.

In a conference as competitive as the SEC which consistently sends more players to the NFL than any other, there is a very fine line between winning and losing. So much can be justified with statistics, but there is no mistaking the correlation between winning and effectiveness on third down. For Sumrall and the Gators to reverse a losing trend that began late season in 2020 it will take better efforts on third down than we’ve seen.

For the Gators to reverse the losing trend that has been in place since the 2021 season, third down will be critical.

SIX GATORS, ONE RECRUIT TAKEN IN THE MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL DRAFT

Six Gators and one signee from the 2026 recruiting class were taken in the Major League Baseball Draft over the weekend. Of the six taken in the draft, all but outfielder Blake Cyr have the option of returning to the University of Florida in the event they can’t agree to financial terms. Cyr is a fourth-year senior who in all probability will not challenge the recently instituted NCAA 5-for-5 rule.

Here are the draftees and the their slot value.

Liam Peterson, RHP (Cleveland, Round 1, pick 19): Slot value $4,350,500

Kyle Jones, CF (Milwaukee, Round 3, pick 102): Slot value $770,600

Russell Sandefer, RHP (Los Angeles Dodgers, Round 4, pick 132): Slot value $575,300

Luke McNeillie, RHP (New York Mets, Round 5, pick 152): Slot value $472,500

Hayden Yost, OF (Seattle, Round 5, pick 162): Slot value $425,500

Blake Cyr, OF (New York Yankees, Round 18, pick 548): Maximum bonus of $150,000

Signee:

Kevin Roberts, OF (Baltimore, Round 4, pick 110): Slot value $711,800

A power hitting outfielder from Jackson, Mississippi, Roberts is 17 years old. If he elects to go the college route, he won’t be eligible for the draft until 2029, so does he bet on himself that he would be worth substantially more money three years from now or does he take the money now? Another question: Can Florida offer an NIL compensation package that would provide security during the three years he’s developing as a college player?

ONE FINAL PITHY THOUGHT: Just in case you missed it last week, Ohio judge Christopher Wagner handed the NCAA another beatdown in court, ruling in favor of 24 athletes who are challenging the NCAA 5-for-5 ruling that excludes last year’s fourth-year seniors (2022 high school graduates) from a fifth year of eligibility.  Ruling that the NCAA acted in an “arbitrary and capricious” manner, Judge Wagner stated that the athletes would suffer “irreparable damage” if denied an opportunity to compete.   

The NCAA, in its infinite wisdom, called Judge Wagner’s ruling “wrong” and vowed to appeal.

Here are excerpts from the NCAA statement: “As disappointing as the ruling itself is he decision by some member schools to support a lawsuit designed to circumvent the rules by which those same schools agreed to be bound. It is fundamentally unfair to the many programs and student-athletes who follow the rules to compete against those who do not. Integrity in college sports relies on all members abiding by the same standards. While we will seek to overturn this ruling, it is now apparent that Congress must act swiftly to restore stability, uniformity and fair competition in college athletics.”

The NCAA paints itself as a virtuous defender of integrity and fairness, which is hardly the case. A decades-long trail of inconsistency and selective enforcement of rules makes the NCAA fair game in court rooms across the country where it consistently takes a losing stand rather than compromise by tweaking its rules. Hundreds of athletes across the country are lining up to challenge the fairness of the 5-for-5 rule that excludes last year’s fourth-year seniors while granting a fifth year of eligibility to first, second and third-year underclassmen.

The simple thing to do would be to amend the rule to grandfather in the fourth-year athletes but that makes far too much sense for the NCAA to comprehend. Instead, the NCAA will spend millions of dollars sending out its teams of lawyers to courtrooms where judges will strike down their arguments with near uniform precision. The NCAA never misses a chance to lament the high cost of doing business in college athletics these days yet it spends money like a drunk 70-year-old millionaire in a strip joint losing in court when the prudent choice would be a compromise.

Compromise would be the smart thing to do, but instead the NCAA chooses to take yet another stand on yet another indefensible hill where it will lose. Again.

At the end of its statement of opposition to Judge Wagner’s ruling, the NCAA begs once again for congressional intervention. Congress can’t agree on a plan to fund the government so why does the NCAA think these folks in Washington can fix college athletics? College athletics are a multi-billion dollar business enterprise. How many of the college presidents who ultimately run the NCAA and how many senators and congressmen ever ran a business much less know anything measurable about sports? This is like putting a chimpanzee in the pilot’s seat of a 747 and expecting him to fly non-stop from Orlando to Tokyo.

The NCAA isn’t the answer nor is Congress. College sports are in definite need of reform but these people haven’t a clue how to get it done. We can only hope and pray someone with a plan will emerge before it’s too late.