Thoughts of the Day: July 26, 2021

A few thoughts to jump start your Monday morning: “SANKEY IS THINKING 50 YEARS AHEAD OF ALL OF US” – POWER 5 ADMINISTRATOR Greg Sankey once again reminds us that great line from the movie “Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid” when Butch (played by Paul Newman) utters the line, “I’ve got insight and the rest of the world is wearing bifocals!”

A year ago when Kevin Warren of the Big Ten was doing his best impersonation of someone who just had a lobotomy and Larry Scott was sitting in his San Francisco office drooling, Sankey had a plan to play football. The Southeastern Conference played a 10-game, conference-only schedule. He allowed wiggle room with midseason open dates so that games postponed due to COVID-19 could be made up. Counting the SEC Championship Game, 71 games were scheduled and 69 were played. Only after Sankey led and the ACC, Big 12, American, Fun Belt and Conference USA followed did Warren wake up from his coma. The Big Ten season was abbreviated, offered no wiggle room to make up games lost and, by all practical accounts, was borderline disaster. Larry Scott made Kevin Warren seem like Einstein reincarnated.

When everyone was grumbling that the College Football Playoff was stale and too much of the same old, same old, Sankey was once again was way ahead of everyone else. Make no mistake about it, the expanded 12-team playoff that will invite the six highest ranked conference champs and six at-large teams was Sankey’s doing. It turns out he was working on this BEFORE there was such a thing as a COVID-19 pandemic.

Last week, just when we starting to realize how name, image and likeness (NIL) is going to do a Lou (The Tailor) Rosanova on college sports by making permanent alterations, the bombshell that Texas and Oklahoma want to bolt the Big 12 for the SEC leaked out. Confirmed within hours, further investigation uncovered the fact the two schools had been working on this with the SEC FOR SIX MONTHS, which means Sankey has gotten this well past idle chat and into the serious stage. Further proof was the feigned outrage by Texas A&M, the purported leaker of the jailbreak. Feigned, because within 48 hours of the “leak” the Texas A&M president was saying “Bring on Texas!” or words to that effect.

Barring a miracle of Shadrach, Meshach and Abednego in the fiery furnace proportions that will keep Texas and Oklahoma in the Big 12, this is going to happen. Texas and Oklahoma will announce their intentions this week and within a matter of a couple weeks, if not sooner, the SEC presidents will do their best Price Is Right impersonations and shout out, “Texas and Oklahoma, come on down!”

Now, money has plenty but not all to do with the move. With or without Texas and Oklahoma, every school in the SEC will be cashing yearly checks for $65 million (or more) every year when the new deal with ESPN kicks in. And speaking of ESPN, do understand this – there would be absolutely zero chance that this could get done without ESPN in on the negotiations almost from the beginning. All ESPN has to do is add $40 million a year to its deal with the SEC and everybody is happy. ESPN will make up the difference easily with advertising and have enough extra that every school in the league will get MORE than the guaranteed $20 million payout. As for Texas and Oklahoma, they’ll get a $27 million raise from the $38.3 million a year they get from the Big 12.

When you think money, don’t be thinking in terms of greed because greed has very little to do with it. This is about survival pure and simple. Texas was forced to cut six sports because of COVID-19. Oklahoma was forced to cut $13.7 million from its athletic budget. The cuts at both schools were in addition to the lost revenue from a season with 1/4th capacity for home games.

SEC schools also lost money, but salaries weren’t cut, budgets weren’t trimmed and not one sport was eliminated. During the spring, the SEC dipped into its substantial reserves and wrote a check to each school in the league to ease the pandemic pains. That, alone, says plenty about why Texas and Oklahoma are leaving.

Then there is the matter of Sankey. He has become the single most powerful voice in all of college athletics. NCAA president Mark Emmert, only wishes he had Sankey’s vision and leadership skills. Sankey is busy seeking answers even before others know there is a question that must be asked. With so many issues confronting college athletics the future is cloudy, but with Sankey in charge you get the impression he’ll figure things out. Texas and Oklahoma aren’t willing to stake their futures to anyone but a leader who is 50 years ahead of everyone else.

WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE BIG 12?

Here are four scenarios for the future of the Big 12.

1. Poach 4 schools from the Pac-12: It has been suggested that the Big 12 lure Colorado, Utah, Arizona and Arizona State from the Pac-12. From a television standpoint, it makes some sense because it would add the large Phoenix, Tucson, Salt Lake and Denver markets to the TV markets in Texas, Kansas City, Oklahoma City and Tulsa. There isn’t a dominant football program in the entire group and you have that teensy problem of West Virginia. It’s 2,052 miles from Morgantown to Tucson. What would make this work would be for West Virginia to be absorbed into the ACC and for BYU be the replacement.

2. Form its own super conference with a merger with the American Athletic Conference: This 16-team league would have Texas Tech, TCU, Baylor, Oklahoma State, Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State and West Virginia from what’s left of the Big 12 merging with Houston, SMU, Tulsa, Tulane, Cincinnati, Memphis, UCF and South Florida. From a TV perspective, you have the Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas City markets adding markets in New Orleans, Memphis, Cincinnati and Florida, so this is a good footprint. It’s actually a better football market than you would get from adding the four teams from the Pac-12 since Cincinnati, UCF and Memphis are as good or better, plus you renew some of the old Southwest Conference rivalries like TCU-SMU. This merger would create a powerful basketball league with a core of Baylor, Kansas, West Virginia, Texas Tech, Houston and Memphis.

3. Become a 12-team league by adding four AAC teams: Cincinnati, Memphis, UCF and South Florida would jump at the chance to join the Big 12. Even with the Big 12 television contract taking a sizeable hit with the loss of Texas and Oklahoma, the new contract will still offer the four AAC teams a better deal than they have now. Adding the Florida markets would be the key to the TV deal but Cincinnati and Memphis add to the league footprint. Cincinnati, Memphis and UCF along with Oklahoma State, Iowa State, Kansas State and TCU aren’t the kind of football powers that make TV marketers drool, but they’re solid.

4. Form a 20-team super conference with the Pac-12: Other than hold a séance or pity party where they sit in a circle, hold hands and do their best Nancy Kerrigan (“Why meeeeeee?”) impersonations what do two conferences in deepest and darkest linguine do to make themselves attractive to a network? It is being suggested in some quarters that the Pac-12 and Big 12 could merge but this would be a logistical nightmare not to mention the fact that the Pac-12s academic people would consider this the equivalent of drinking Pabst at a wine and cheese tailgate. Assuming this merger is being considered, it could have some appeal to Fox Sports which might see real potential in combining the West Coast and Texas television markets. West Virginia would probably balk, but not if it could join the ACC. That could open the door for BYU, which has nearly seven million LDS church members who are BYU fanatics residing in the US. Consider this a longshot proposal but considering the state of desperation that both the Pac-12 and Big 12 are going to be in anything is possible.

My conclusion: I’ll take door No. 2, Monty Hall.

WHAT WILL THE ACC DO?

The ACC finds itself in an almost no-win situation. It’s already a bottom feeder when it comes to money and if it elects to expand, its choices are extremely limited.

Let’s start with the money. The SEC already pays out $13 million a year more than the ACC and that gap will widen to at least $30 million a year when the new SEC TV contract goes into effect in 2024. This is WITHOUT Texas and Oklahoma. Nobody is talking about it openly, but the panic alarms are loud and clear when ACC administrators talk to each other.

New commissioner Jim Phillips openly courted Notre Dame at ACC Media Days but what incentives can the ACC offer to make league membership attractive for Notre Dame? Even if Notre Dame capitulated and joined, the money gap will be staggering. The Irish are members of the ACC in all sports but football. The price for membership is five football games against ACC opponents each year, which begs the question is there anything remotely appealing about adding three or four more ACC games? Given the choice between a home and home with Wake Forest or one with Southern Cal, Southern Cal wins every time. Joining the ACC would cramp their national schedule in a big way.

The ACC can only hope that Notre Dame will feel its College Football Playoff opportunities will be squeezed by SEC expansion. At first the move to 12 teams (champs from the six highest ranked conferences, six at-large) favored Notre Dame but Texas and Oklahoma in the SEC could mean more SEC at-large teams in the playoff, shrinking the at-large bids for everyone else. If Notre Dame caves and joins the ACC for football, that’s the reason.

Is there any team besides Notre Dame that can increase the ACC’s dollar value? West Virginia is a good geographic fit and would be very competitive in football and basketball but doesn’t offer anything else whether athletically or in adding scads of new television viewers. Cincinnati is as good a geographic fit as West Virginia and has an up-and-coming football program, but the Ohio TV market is owned by the Buckeyes. You can forget UCF or USF. Neither one has anything in the way of tradition or much in the way of strengthening the league in other sports. Because Florida State and Miami are already in the ACC, UCF and USF wouldn’t add anything in the way of television viewers.

My conclusion: Even if the ACC adds Notre Dame it won’t do anything more than halve the gap with the SEC. At best the ACC will be the third best conference in the country.

WILL THE BIG TEN JOIN THE EXPANSION FEEDING FRENZY?

Thanks to the Big Ten Network, all 14 schools in the league got a $56 million payout prior to the pandemic. The network is so strong that even a boob like Kevin Warren can’t screw things up too badly. If Warren is smart, he will take a very conservative stance while the Big 12, Pac-12 and ACC scramble. The Big Ten doesn’t really need to expand so it can be afford to be patient and selective. Notre Dame is the only school that makes complete and total sense for the Big Ten, but if Notre Dame wants to join a conference it is contractually obligated to the ACC.

Past Notre Dame, the choices aren’t great. Kansas fits the league academic profile and would add to the league’s basketball strength, but KU has plenty of baggage with the NCAA right now, particularly in basketball. The KU football program is light years from being competitive. Iowa State is another good academic fit and would be a strong football addition, but doesn’t offer much with the other sports or with television. Missouri, which is a geographic and academic fit, would have to leave the SEC. There would be a financial hit, although not that great. Travel expenses would be less, and Mizzou would be in the Big Ten West, which is weaker. The Big Ten flirted with Missouri 10 years ago and didn’t invite the Tigers to join. It’s highly doubtful there would be an invitation extended now.

My conclusion: Kevin Warren lets things play out with the other conferences before deciding whether it’s smart to make a move.

ONE FINAL PITHY THOUGHT: At SEC Media Days, first year Auburn coach Bryan Harsin went on the record that he will not even discuss COVID-19 vaccinations with his team. Harsin went on to say, “It’s deeply personal for a lot of people and so, that’s how we approach it: Here’s the information. You make the decision.” The SEC wants every team to be at least 80 percent vaccinated to prevent the kind of teamwide outbreaks that could result in games being forfeited and seasons disrupted. Right now, Harsin says Auburn is at 60 percent. It seems to me the head coach needs to do whatever he has to do to get his team within the minimum threshold. Anything less than a serious effort to get the team vaccinated is irresponsible.