With a win today at Ole Miss Gators maintain their 2-game SEC lead

Boogie Fland gets a defensive stop against Georgia (Photo by Chris Spears)

The mathematics favor 12^th-ranked Florida, so much that everybody on the planet expects a blowout today (12 noon, ESPN) when the Gators (20-6-11-2 SEC) take on Ole Miss (11-15, 3-10 SEC) in Oxford. The Gators have won six straight games including their last five on the road and they have a 2-game cushion in the Southeastern Conference standings. Ole Miss, on the other hand, has lost eight straight games and is fighting to stay out of the SEC cellar. 

Florida is a 13.5-point favorite and the way the Gators have been playing lately, most would be shocked if the final margin isn’t closer to 20. The Gators have won their last six by a 22-point per game margin. Only Kentucky (9-point UF win) was able to keep it closer than 10 points.

There is a 3-team pack chasing the Gators, who can inch closer to the SEC regular season title with a win over Ole Miss. If the Gators make it six straight road wins today, it narrows the chances Tennessee (19-7, 9-4 SEC), Arkansas (19-7, 9-4 SEC) or Alabama (19-7, 9-4 SEC) can at least earn a tie for the championship. Today, Tennessee travels to Vanderbilt (21-5, 8-5 SEC), Arkansas is home against Missouri (18-8, 8-5 SEC) and Alabama is on the road to LSU (14-12, 2-11 SEC).

The Gators can’t count on either Tennessee, Arkansas or Alabama losing, so it’s imperative on the Gators playing at a very high level to maintain that 2-game edge.

"We talked about it yesterday,” Golden said Friday afternoon. “You're in a spot where you have five league games left, and you have a 2-game lead in the league, which is an incredible spot to be in, but we can't necessarily focus on that or worry about it. The reality is, at the same time, having that goal in front of us, we still have to approach and focus on our day-to-day, just getting better. We talked about our macro goal, but at the same time, on a micro level, yesterday, it was focusing on getting to know Ole Miss and the personnel, kind of getting our bodies back right.

“Today, I thought we had a really good practice. Thought we executed well, our physicality was there, thought we had a kind of a pop in our step. Just as good of a position as we're in today, if we don't take care of business tomorrow and play well, we're gonna be in a tough spot. So it's just taking one game at a time and trying to continue to keep ourselves in a really good position."

Despite their poor record in SEC play, Ole Miss hasn’t exactly been a pushover. The Rebels have been in most games until late, when a lack of quality depth and rebounding has taken a toll. The Rebels average just 34.4 rebounds per game. Florida leads the nation in rebounding (46.04 per game), offensive rebounds (16.42) and rebounding margin (14 per game). The Gators boast the SEC and nation’s leading rebounder in Rueben Chinyelu (11.8 points, 12.0 rebounds). Alex Condon (13.6 points, 8.1 rebounds) ranks third in the SEC in rebounding.

Those kind of numbers point to Florida winning big, but Ole Miss can play very tough. Prior to their 8-game losing streak in SEC play, Ole Miss won three straight games in league play – over Missouri at home, at Georgia and at Mississippi State.

“I think they've just been one of those teams that's fallen a little short, like Oklahoma, in some matchups, where you look at them and you're like, 'Dang, you know, they got good players, just like everybody else in the league', and that's why they can go on the road and win at Georgia, even though it was earlier in conference play,” Golden said. “They can go on the road at Texas, have a chance to tie the game with a minute to go. They should have won at Texas A&M, so you when you kind of look at all the results, big-picture wise, like, their record's not great, but they're very capable team, and I think on their home floor, just like any team in the league, like, you got to do a really good job of playing well if you want to get out of there with a win."

In addition to dominating the backboards, the key for the Gators will be on the defensive end. The Gators are actually scoring more points this season than a year ago (86.1 per game this year; 84.8 last) despite a lack of consistent outside shooting (29.4 percent on 3-pointers). Despite the poor shooting percentage, the Gators have actually made more 3-pointers (192) than their opponents (178).

But it is the defense that is the calling card. Per the analytics at barttorvik.com, the Gators are the No. 3 team in the country in defensive efficiency. They’re No. 4 at kenpom.com. All five Florida starters can guard on the perimeter and all five are very good rebounders, which accounts for a lot of one-and-done offensive trips down the floor for opponents.

Since convincing the team that the secret to success this year would be rebounding and defense, Golden believes the Gators are “a more talented defensive team this year, and that's something that we got to continue to hang our hat on."

Golden has also had success getting the Gators to treat every opponent seriously, taking a true one-game-at-a-time approach rather than look ahead.

"It's been the mindset,” Golden said. “It will continue to be the mindset. It's the best way to approach every game. Not every single game can you really treat as a national championship, but it's just mentality and consistency in approach. And trying to do all the things you can put yourself in position be successful and letting the chips fall where they may. But I do think, especially later in the year, the mental part of it's really important and staying fresh and staying focused and making sure that you don't take any of these opportunities for granted. We only got five league games left, two at home, and the postseason will be here before you know it."

Anticipated starting lineups

No. 12 FLORIDA (20-6, 11-2): (Alex Condon, 6-11, 236, JR); Rueben Chinyelu (6-11, 265, JR); Tommy Haugh (6-9, 215, JR); Boogie Fland (6-3, 185, SO); Xaivian Lee (6-4, 185, SR)

Ole Miss (11-15, 3-10 SEC): Malik Dia (6-9, 250, SR); James Scott (6-10, 225, JR); Travis Perry (6-5, 185, SR); Patton Pinkins (6-5, 200, FR); Ilias Kamardine (6-1, 185, FR)

Saturday’s games

No. 12 FLORIDA (20-6, 11-2 SEC) at Ole Miss (11-15, 3-10 SEC)

Tennessee (19-7, 9-4 SEC) at No. 19 Vanderbilt (21-5, 8-5 SEC)

Missouri (18-8, 8-5 SEC) at No. 20 Arkansas (19-7, 9-4 SEC)

No. 25 Alabama (19-7, 9-4 SEC) at LSU (14-12, 2-11 SEC)

Texas (17-9, 8-5 SEC) at Georgia (18-8, 6-7 SEC)

Kentucky (17-9, 8-5 SEC) at Auburn (14-12, 5-8 SEC)

Texas A&M (18-8, 8-5 SEC) at Oklahoma (13-13, 3-10 SEC)

Mississippi State (13-13, 5-8 SEC) at South Carolina (11-15, 2-11 SEC)

SEC in ESPN (Joe Lunardi) bracketology

Midwest: 1. Michigan; 2. Iowa State; 3. Texas Tech; 4. Virginia (SEC: 5. Tennessee; 6. Kentucky; 10. Georgia)

South: 1. Houston; 2. Illinois; 3. FLORIDA; 4. Nebraska (Other SEC teams: 5. Arkansas; 10. Texas A&M)

East: 1. Duke; 2. UConn; 3. Kansas; 4. Michigan State (SEC: 5. Vanderbilt; 9. Texas; 11. Missouri)

West: 1. Arizona; 2. Purdue; 3. Gonzaga; 4. Alabama (Other SEC: 10. Auburn)

SEC in CBS bracketology

Midwest: 1. Michigan; 2. Iowa State; 3. Gonzaga; 4. Vanderbilt (SEC: 5. Arkansas; 10. Missouri)

South: 1. Houston; 2. Purdue; 3. FLORIDA; 4. Virginia (SEC: 5. Tennessee; 10. Georgia)

East: 1. Duke; 2. Illinois; 3. Kansas; 4. Alabama (SEC: 9. Texas; 10. Texas A&M)

West: 1. Arizona; 2. UConn; 3. Nebraska; 4. Michigan State (SEC: 7. Kentucky)