A few reasons why Billy Napier is feeling very confident

A few thoughts to jump start your Monday morning:

So here we are two weeks from the end of camp, three weeks from the season opener with Miami. For the most part, the same people who thought the Gators were going to crash and burn back in the spring still think Billy Napier is on a fast track to the paid well to not coach line. A few of the spring naysayers have changed their minds, but not many.

A columnist for Saturday Down South predicts the Gators will start the season 5-0 but finish 6-6 with UF athletic director Scott Stricklin and Napier canned. That’s an interesting theory that doesn’t get much traction among the people who write the big checks. The SDS columnist and a bunch of others from national, regional and state media don’t seem to understand that barring a total collapse – say 2-10 or worse – Napier will be the head coach next year and Scott Stricklin will still be the AD.

Now if things aren’t peachy keen by the end of 2025 both of their lawyers will be negotiating buyout money but that's a long way off.

Things do have to change at UF. That much is a necessity, but folks who write the checks do understand that if Napier goes, you can kiss DJ Lagway good bye. Florida isn’t stupid enough to take a chance on losing a quarterback who’s considered a generational talent. Florida fans have been begging for the next Tim Tebow since he graduated after the 2009 season. In Lagway they may have him.

Those same well heeled folks with money to spare also understand that Napier is the sixth coach at UF since Steve Spurrier walked away in 2001. Of Napier’s five predecessors, only Urban Meyer walked away. The others were pink slipped and every one of them got a fat going away check. Yes, somehow, someway, Old Yeller even got a see ya’ later check. How and why that happened is one of life’s unexplained mysteries.

If Napier is feeling the heat from the administration or from fan expectations, he’s not showing it, at least now when it’s August and camp is in full swing. When he speaks, he sounds more confident than he has at any point in the previous two years. That has something to do with having the deepest and most talented roster he’s had. The Gators look like grown men for a change and you don’t win without grown men in the Southeastern Conference.  

It probably has something to do with a revamped defensive staff. The Gators are 11-14 in Napier’s two seasons, a defensive play or two in a handful of games away from 19-6. There wouldn’t be any conversation about a hot seat if the Gators were sitting 19-6 heading into year three. The talk would be all about the College Football Playoff. Napier likes his defensive staff, but especially he’s comfortable having Ron Roberts back in the saddle with him. Roberts is a guru whose creeper scheme has been copied and tinkered with to fit the personnel on hand at every level of football from high school to the pros. He is a born difference maker, which is why skeptical Florida fans might want to bite their critical tongues and give him a chance to implement a new and improved way of getting opponents off the field before they score another TD while taking six minutes off the clock.

People who have actually played the game at the highest levels and who have seen the Gators practice tell me they see a team that is going to win seven or at football games at a bare minimum, more if they get a break or two along the way. I asked why and here is a sampling of answers:

Graham Mertz: Looks better than he did last year when he completed 72.9 percent of his passes. In complete command of the offense.

Running backs: The deepest the Gators have been in years ... When Montrell Johnson is healthy five backs who can impact a game ... Beware of Ja’Kobi Jackson.

Wide receivers: The Gators are capable of going vertical every single play with at least four receivers ... Someone is going to overlook Kahliel Jackson this year and they’ll pay a serious price for their stupidity ... Tre Wilson has to get the ball 10 times a game.

O-line: Jake Slaughter and Austin Barber have been consistent and playing lights out. Knijeah Harris has played well … They’re still shuffling two of the other three positions to find the best combinations although they played better overall as a unit in the scrimmage … Right now it looks like Kam Waites and Damien George Jr. will be at right guard … Brandon Crenshaw-Dickson is at right tackle but he hasn’t been as consistent in August as he was in the spring.

D-line: Desmond Watson has lost 68 pounds of fat and added more than 50 pounds of muscle. He could be a real factor at the nose … Joey Slackman is a real player, while (Caleb) Banks and (Cam) Jackson are looking much better … Gerald Chatman will bring out the best in this group … Kelby Collins will be on the field somewhere … Losing Jamari Lyons (serious leg injury in the scrimmage) will hurt.

Linebackers/EDGE: Shemar James and Pup Howard are the real deal in the middle. Derek Wingo is going to be on the field a lot … A lot more pressure from the outside. Tyreak Sapp and Justus Boone are players … Love the kid (LJ McCray). He’s going to be a stud, maybe even this year.

Secondary: Tighten your jock if you’re going across the middle. Asa Turner loves to hit people … Turner and Jordan Castell are locked in at safety. Jason Marshall Jr. and Devin Moore at corner. Looks like Aaron Gates or Sharif Denson at STAR … DJ Douglas will play somewhere. Too good to sit.

SEC FOOTBALL

Alabama: Alabama’s first team O-line appears to be LT Kadyn Proctor, LG Geno VanDemark, C Parker Brailsford, RG Roq Montgomery, RT Wilkin Formby.

Arkansas: HBC Sam Pittman says offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino “brings that swag to our program.”

Auburn: The standouts at the Auburn scrimmage were wide receivers Malcolm Simmons and Bryce Cain. Simmons caught three passes for 116 yards and two touchdowns including a 71-yarder. Cain caught four for 80 including a 52-yarder.

Georgia: Earnest Greene III started all 14 games last year at LT but he’s now in a battle with Monroe Freeling for the starting job with some observers predicting Freeling will win the job.

Kentucky: Former Gator Jalen Farmer seems a lock to start at right guard for the Wildcats. Another former Gator, Gerald Mincey, who is at UK after a detour to Tennessee, should be the starter at right tackle.

LSU: The starting O-line looks to be LT Will Campbell, LG Grant Dellinger, C DJ Chester, RG Miles Frazier and RT Emery Jones.

Mississippi State: The Bulldogs lost all five starters on the O-line. Four transfers are in the mix to start: Ethan Miner, Makylan Pounders, Jacoby Jackson and Marlon Martinez.

Missouri: Wide receiver Joshua Manning had six catches for 100 yards and two touchdowns in Mizzou’s scrimmage Saturday … Appalachian State transfer Nate Noel and Georgia State transfer Marcus Carroll seem to be running neck and neck for the starting running back job.

Oklahoma: Baylor transfer Jake Roberts, who began his career at North Texas, seems to be a lock for the starting tight end job. He caught 23 passes for 231 yards and a TD last year at Baylor.

Ole Miss: Former Gator Princely Umanmielen is recovering from a bum shoulder that has kept him in a non-contact jersey. He doesn’t expect to miss any game time starting with the season opener against Furman.

South Carolina: Running 1-2 at quarterback are redshirt freshman LaNorris Sellers and Auburn transfer Robby Ashford.

Tennessee: The Vols were the most penalized team in the SEC a year ago. HBC Josh Heupel was pleased that the zebras threw very few flags at the Vols’ first scrimmage Friday night.

Texas: The defense dominated when Texas held its first scrimmage Saturday afternoon. Clemson transfer Andrew Mukuba picked off Quinn Ewers and Jelani McDonald had a pick off Arch Manning.

Texas A&M: Running back Rueben Owens was injured in Saturday’s scrimmage and will miss the entire 2024 season. Amari Daniels and Le’Veon Moss are the replacements.

Vanderbilt: Corners Mark Davis (Achilles) and Marlon Jones Jr. (illness) will miss the entire 2024 season.

ONE FINAL PITHY THOUGHT: Last week the National Collegiate Athletic Association put a 4-year show cause on former Michigan head coach Jim Harbaugh. As if that’s likely to cause Harbaugh sleepless nights. He’s moved on to the NFL Los Angeles Chargers and has made it plenty clear that he has no intention of ever coaching college football again.

I’m reminded of the three formative years when my family was exiled to Mississippi. Buddy Prestridge, a local banker, lived across the street from us on Westview Circle. He had a toothless dog who had fallen out of a moving vehicle when he was just a puppy. That didn’t stop him from trying to bite people whenever he got loose from the Prestridge’s back yard. The dog did his best to cause irreparable harm to me whenever he saw me, but the best he ever did was make me change my socks or pants because of all the dog slobber.  

The NCAA is toothless, slobbering dog when it comes to Harbaugh. They probably had a legitimate case against him for the signal stealing that went on for years before the Wolverines won the national championship last year. According to a lengthy report in The Athletic, it turns out the NCAA had the goods on Harbaugh for recruiting violations and not telling the truth when confronted by investigators.

When it comes to Jim Harbaugh, there isn’t a damn thing the NCAA can do. But, there is something the NCAA can do to Michigan. Just because they can’t kick Jim Harbaugh around anymore doesn’t mean they can’t stick it to Michigan. They’ve already got the goods on new head coach Sherrone Moore for deleting emails that pertained to the signal stealing. Former Michigan staffer Connor Stalions, who was the alleged brains behind the signal stealing, has a Netflix documentary coming out on August 27 that could damage the Michigan brand even further.

Four days after the Stalions documentary, Michigan will open its season in the Big House with Fresno State. Michigan has already announced that Jim Harbaugh will be the honorary captain for the game. Most folks would take that as Michigan’s ultimate up yours to the NCAA.

Michigan is the winningest program in college football history, a true blueblood. Until the signal stealing and recruiting cases that involved Harbaugh came up, the only time in school history football had run afoul of the NCAA was in 2010 when it got hit with three years probation but no loss of scholarships or show cause for then head coach Rich Rodriguez.

Perhaps Michigan thinks of the NCAA the way I thought about the Prestridge’s dog, slobber on the leg that caused me to change pants and socks but no damage. The NCAA has the power to stick it to Michigan with sanctions, scholarship reductions and other penalties. Perhaps the question that has to be asked is does the NCAA have the guts to go after a blueblood?

I am of the opinion the NCAA’s sell-by date expired years ago and that it’s time for a brand new organization complete with a set of rules that it’s willing to enforce equally whether the offender is a blueblood or a wannabe. If the NCAA doesn’t go ahead and drop the hammer on Michigan, then any chance it has to survive just got flushed down the toilet.