Are Storm Clouds Gathering Over the Florida Gators Basketball Program?

Noah Locke was the surprise but one of only three announced departures.

The moment the basketball season ended for the Florida Gators in the second round of the NCAA Tournament last Saturday, it was only a matter of time before Tre Mann did what everyone expected and declared for the NBA Draft. No one was caught by surprise when Mann announced he’s leaving on Wednesday but no sooner did he have both feet out the door when Noah Locke and Ques Glover announced they have placed their names in the NCAA transfer portal.

Locke was a high profile recruit out of Baltimore three years ago who has lived up to his reputation as a lethal weapon three kind of guy. Glover was not highly recruited but he had some positive moments the last two years only to see them offset by defensive limitations and issues with turnovers. Locke leaving is a shock, Glover not so much.

The departure of three players – two of them starters – plus the unanswered health questions regarding Keyontae Johnson give the appearance that storm clouds are gathering over Mike White and the Florida basketball program. Rumors persist that at least one or two players – perhaps more – will be transferring out, leaving White with only five or six scholarship players. Additionally, assistant coach Jordan Mincy, who came to Florida with White from Louisiana Tech, was named the new head coach at Jacksonville University on Thursday.

In this day and age, transfers are the norm and not the exception but a mass exodus can bring any program to its knees. Even with the NCAA sitting on legislation that will grant scholarship athletes a one-time transfer without the one year penalty, a number of programs are already seeing their rosters decimated by players putting their names in the transfer portal. Florida is not at the equivalent of nuclear winter but the very last thing Mike White needs is the perception that he, too, has lost control. How he addresses the transfers of Locke and Glover while stabilizing matters within is going to go a long, long way toward determining success moving ahead.

This is one of those hope for the best but plan for the worst scenarios that White has to deal with if the Gators are going to be anything more than simply competitive next season. If Locke and Glover are the only two to leave, then White has the nucleus of a very good basketball team that should compete for a top four finish in the Southeastern Conference next year. If the transfer floodgates are open, how will he re-fill his roster with quality players? Will he focus more on high school recruits? Only a few quality players remain unsigned but there are still some very good players with whom White and his staff have had an ongoing relationship. White may have to dip further into the transfer portal than he ever intended, especially if he can’t land any quality high school recruits.

Here is a breakdown of the Florida roster along with the names of potential high school recruits and some prominent transfers that might fit what Florida needs:

GONERS:

Tre Mann (6-5, 192, 2nd-year freshman), Noah Locke (6-3, 203, 3rd-year sophomore); Ques Glover (5-11, 182; 2nd-year freshman)

Mann’s NBA draft stock has been on the rise since January and it really took off in the last month of the season. He’s almost certain to be selected in the first half of the first round. ESPN ranks him as the 15th best draft-eligible player but if he does well enough in the pre-draft workouts it’s not unfathomable that he breaks into the lottery or possibly top ten. He has deep range on his 3-ball and he can create his own shot, both traits that will make him a commodity in the NBA, which puts a premium on scorers.

The decision by Locke to enter the transfer portal was unexpected. A career 40.3 percent shooter from the 3-point line, Locke leaves ranked among the top 10 3-point shooters in UF history. Locke scored 933 points in his UF career and averaged 10.1 per game. His loss is huge since 3-point shooters of his caliber don’t grow on trees. Locke will have two years of eligibility remaining wherever he transfers.

Glover’s decision to transfer wasn’t a shock. As his liability to defend in the half court became more pronounced his playing time nosedived. He didn’t sniff the court in either of Florida’s two NCAA games. He has three years of eligibility remaining due to the NCAA ruling that made 2020-21 a mulligan year for every Division I player. Glover needs to play at a mid-to-low major where the players he defends aren’t nearly as big and he won’t have to worry about getting his shot blocked.

ONE FOOT OUT THE DOOR?:

Scottie Lewis (6-5, 189, 3rd-year SO), Omar Payne (6-10, 230, 3rd-year SO), Jason Jitoboh (6-11, 285, 3rd-year SO), Osayi Osifo (6-7, 225, 4th-year JR)

Do not be surprised if Lewis declares for the NBA. When he arrived at UF in 2019 he was predicted to be a one-and-done. After a good but not great freshman year, he digressed to the point that if he left now, at best he would be a second rounder and a G-leaguer. The NBA is about potential and Lewis has plenty of that to go with the kind of athleticism few can match. Lewis needs to return to college for another season to develop, but if he does come back – especially to Florida – he would be wise to focus more on basketball, not so much on social issues. Had he spent more time on basketball than social activism this past season he might have played himself into the first round. Odds he stays: Less than 50%.

Payne digressed in 2021. He can’t be happy either with the progress he’s made or his role on the team. Due to diminished playing time this past season there is plenty of speculation that he wants a fresh start. The talent is definitely there, but there is a disconnect somewhere because either he’s not being coached well or he’s not responding for reasons unknown. If he stays he needs a lot of TLC and a fresh approach to development because he has the physical abilities to be exceptional. Odds he stays: Less than 50%.

Jitoboh played in only 12 games and only once (vs. Tennessee in January) did he play more than 10 minutes. Were there health issues such as weight or COVID-19? Student confidentiality rules prevent us from knowing the answer to those questions. He has great size and if he can ever get himself into good playing shape there is a chance he could be productive. Odds he stays: A little more than 50%.

Osifo doesn’t rebound, defend or score well enough to play in the SEC. He can stay a year and be a role player or he can go somewhere else. The more players who leave the program the more likely he will remain at UF. Odds he stays: Less than 50%.

SERIOUSLY DOUBTFUL Keyontae Johnson (6-5, 230, 4th-year JR)

There has been little to indicate whether Johnson will be cleared to play basketball again. Nothing is official until it’s announced, but the image of his collapse on the floor in Tallahassee makes it hard to see him playing anytime soon if ever at all. If he can’t play will he remain at UF and hone his coaching abilities? Is Noah Locke’s departure a sign that Keyontae will also be leaving? They are closest of friends so it’s hard to imagine Keyontae remaining in Gainesville while Locke moves on somewhere else. Odds he will be cleared to play: Next to 0. Odds he will be a student assistant coach at UF: 50% at best.

IF THOSE GUYS ARE GONERS, THEN WHAT REMAINS?:

Colin Castleton (6-11, 235, 4th-year JR), Tyree Appleby (6-1, 170, 5th-year JR), Anthony Duruji (6-7, 225, 5th-year JR), Samson Ruzhentsev (6-7, 195, 2nd-year FR), Neils Lane (6-5, 206, 2nd-year FR), Kowacie Reeves (6-6, 190, FR)

Castleton averaged 12.4 points, 6.4 rebounds and 2.1 blocked shots per game. If he adds 10-15 pounds of muscle and develops a free throw line on in jump shot to complement what he does around the rim, he could become a big-time scorer next season. The added strength would also help him increase his rebounding. He’s already an elite defender in the paint. Next season: Starter.

Appleby can be a blur with the ball in his hands, but that’s also the problem. He may be the fastest point guard in the SEC, but he hasn’t exactly learned to harness the speed and play under control. He gets himself into trouble off the dribble far too often. He averaged 11.3 points per game but he had nearly as many turnovers (72) as he had assists (82), numbers that don’t cut it as a point guard in the SEC. He has to learn to play under control. He would benefit from a new offensive scheme as well. Next season: Starter.

Duruji is the most athletic player on the UF roster with one of the best verticals (said to be 48 inches) in the country. He’s an outstanding defender but was an inconsistent scorer and rebounder in his first season in the SEC, quite often due to foul trouble. General consensus is that he needs to abandon the 3-ball and focus his scoring from 15 feet on in and especially around the rim where he can outjump people. Next season: Starter.

Ruzhentsev has enormous potential as a shooter although he was erratic as a true freshman when he shot only 28.6% on his 3-pointers. His opportunities to earn starters minutes increased dramatically when Noah Locke entered the transfer portal. He has to get serious in the weight room to add 15-20 pounds of muscle much the way Tre Mann did after his freshman year and he has to become a better defender. He will be given every chance to play serious minutes because he’s a pure shooter with tremendous range. Next season: A chance to start or be early off the bench.

In Florida’s January win over Tennessee, Lane played 18 minutes and had a productive game with six points and five rebounds. He played only 26 minutes and took three shots the rest of the season. Were there health issues? That we don’t know. What we do know is that Lane can defend all the perimeter positions. He should see a large increase in minutes. Next season: Early off the bench or possibly starter.

Reeves is a dynamic scorer who has an excellent mid-range game and is good taking it off the bounce to the rack. He’s an explosive leaper who can also excel on the defensive end. Reeves showed major improvement with his 3-point shot during his high school season. He needs to continue to work on that aspect of his game, plus he needs to get physically stronger. He’s athletic enough to play early and often. Next season: Potential starter.

STILL ON THE RECRUITING BOARD:

It’s late in the process to land quality high school kids, but the Gators are still recruiting several players.

Wesley Cardet (6-6, 175, Oakland Park, FL/Orlando FL West Oaks Academy): He’s a scorer, not so much a shooter, but he gets to the rim and to the foul line a lot. His offer list includes UF, Auburn, Illinois, Alabama, Clemson, Miami and Southern Cal. Right now, Alabama seems to have the edge on everybody.

Jordan Shorter (6-5, 180, Miami, FL/Orlando, FL West Oaks Academy): He plays AAU ball for Team Breakdown, which sent Kenny Boynton to UF years ago. He has narrowed his choices down to UF, Oklahoma State, Iowa State, South Florida, Florida International and Saint Louis.

Nate Tshimanga (6-9, 230, Kinshasha, Congo/Granbury, TX North Central Texas Academy): His shot beyond 10 feet is somewhat of an adventure but he’s a pure power player around the rim who can score through contact. He has offers from UF, Ole Miss, UConn, TCU and Auburn.

Bretner Mutombo (6-11, 220, Kinshasha, Congo/Chattanooga, TN Hamilton Heights Christian Academy): He played his AAU basketball for Georgia Stars. He has offers from UF, Pitt, Georgia, TCU, Xavier, Clemson, Virginia Tech and Auburn. Some say he’s a lean to Auburn while others predict he will go to Pitt. By all accounts, he has a very good relationship with Mike White, who has landed two recruits (Jitoboh, Ruzhentsev) out of Hamilton Heights the last two years.

Kristian Kocab (6-11, 220, Prague, Czech Republic/Chattanooga, TN Hamilton Heights Christian Academy): Kocab first caught everyone’s attention a couple of years ago at the European Under 16 Championships. He played briefly at Hamilton Heights before returning to Czech Republic to play in an under-19 league where he averages 21 points, 17 rebounds and 4.0 blocks. If he decides to play college basketball in the US, Florida, by most accounts, has the inside track.

Efton Reid (7-1, 235, Richmond, VA/Bradenton, FL IMG Academy): The Gators have been recruiting him for the past three years, but so has everybody on the planet. Still, he continues to list Florida as one of his interests and he’s worth pursuing until he says go away. He needs a year or two of college basketball but with his size and mobility he may decide to forego college to spend a year in the G-League before going into the NBA in the 2022 draft.

GOING THE TRANSFER ROUTE:

With three players already gone, the possibility that two or three more will follow and the unlikely possibility that Johnson will be medically cleared to play again, White will need to turn to the transfer portal to bring in some experienced players. The question is how many?

Very few coaches have been as successful landing quality transfers as Mike White over the last six years. Transfers Canyon Barry (Charleston), Jalen Hudson (Virginia Tech), Egor Koulechov (Rice), Kerry Blackshear Jr. (Virginia Tech), Tyree Appleby (Cleveland State), Anthony Duruji (Louisiana Tech) and Colin Castleton (Michigan) all had an impact on the UF program and helped make up for recruiting deficiencies. Can White find similar impact players this year? Here are a few players that could be on the UF transfer radar:

Jarrod West (5-11, 185, Marshall, GR): West is a grad transfer point guard. He averaged 12.5 points, 3.5 rebounds, 6.0 assists and 2.0 steals per game while shooting 40.8 percent from the 3-point line. He has offers from Ohio State, Louisville, Georgetown, Texas, West Virginia and Maryland.

Myreon Jones (6-3, 180, Penn State, 4th-year JR): Originally from Birmingham, Alabama, Jones is one of many Penn State players who elected to transfer out when Pat Chambers was fired. Jones averaged 15.3 per game last season when he shot 39.5% from the 3-point line. Ole Miss was his only SEC offer coming out of Lincoln Academy in Suwanee, Georgia, so he has overachieved at the collegiate level.

Earl Timberlake (6-6, 220, Miami, 2nd-year FR): He’s a former 4-star recruit from DeMatha who began the exodus that is taking place from Miami. Timberlake had injuries, which is why he played in only seven games. He averaged 9.3 points and 5.09 rebounds. Florida had a legitimate shot at landing him out of high school. Since he’s from Hyattsville, Maryland, Maryland and Georgetown will be the presumed front runners.

Kellan Grady (6-5, 205, Davidson, GR): He is a grad transfer who can light it up. Grady has scored 2,002 points in his career, averaging 17.4 points per game in the tough Atlantic 10 Conference. He can score inside and outside and is comfortable at the point or either wing.

CJ Felder (6-7, 230, Boston College, 3rd-year SO): Felder had a handful of SEC offers coming out of Sumter, South Carolina. Two years playing for two bad Boston College teams and a change at HBC hastened his exit. He averaged 9.7 points and 5.9 rebounds this past season. He scored 11 points in BC’s loss to the Gators in November. He has long arms and is a very quick leaper. Good rebounder, good defender and not a very good shooter outside 15 feet.

Tre Mitchell (6-9, 235, UMass, 3rd-year SO): Mitchell scored 792 points and grabbed 315 rebounds in 44 career games at UMass playing for former Florida assistant Matt McCall. He averaged 18.8 points and 7.2 rebounds last year when he shot 51.9% overall and 37.5% from the 3-point line. He’s a high volume scorer who is very effective in the paint using either hand. He had offers from Arkansas, Illinois, Louisville, Notre Dame, Syracuse and Tennessee coming out of high school.

Jamison Battle, 6-7, 225, George Washington, 3rd-year SO): Battle scored 636 points in two seasons at GW after being a lightly recruited prep out of Minnesota. He averaged 17.3 points and 5.2 rebounds a game last season when he shot 35.4% from the 3-point line. Not a great defender or a consistently good rebounder but there aren’t many 6-7s out there who can shoot like he can.

Marcus Carr (6-2, 200, Minnesota, 4th-year JR): Carr, who prepped at Montverde Academy, is a Canadian who originally signed with Pitt then transferred after one year to Minnesota. He averaged 19.4 points, 4.0 rebounds and 4.9 assists per game last season playing for former UF assistant Richard Pitino. Carr has scored 1,361 points in 92 career collegiate games (14.3 average). He’s a pure point guard who is more scorer than shooter and a very good defender.

Qudus Wahab (6-10, 230, Georgetown, 3rd-year SO): Wahab had plenty of big time offers out of Flint Hill School in Ashburn, Virginia. He was one of the most improved big men in the country this past season when he doubled his production, averaging 12.7 points, 8.2 rebounds and 1.6 blocks per game. Originally from Lagos, Nigeria, he is strictly an inside guy who has never attempted a 3-pointer.

Jamal Mashburn Jr. (6-2, 180, Minnesota, 2nd-year FR): The son of the former Kentucky great and NBA star, Mashburn is from Miami originally although he prepped at Brewster Academy in New Hampshire. As a freshman at Minnesota, he averaged 8.2 points per game backing up Marcus Carr at the point. He’s a good scorer although not a great shooter and a very good defender.