Billy Napier says, 'We're close to being pretty dangerous.'

When it comes to football, nobody really pays attention to close calls. It’s like that old adage close only counts in horse shoes and hand grenades.

When it comes to the Florida Gators, nobody says the Gators are just a handful of bad plays away from a 3-0 record that would have them highly ranked and teetering on the verge of playoff contention. People only pay attention to the bottom line and that’s 1-2.

If the Gators were 3-0 right now – they’re a TD called back for either a holding penalty or a dubious offensive pass interference against South Florida and another TD nullified by holding and a pick six at LSU – Billy Napier would have the longest winning streak in the country. Seven games. Everybody would be talking up Saturday when Billy matches up with his former colleague on the Alabama staff, Miami coach Mario Cristobal.

At 1-2, however, people are wondering if Florida athletic director Scott Stricklin gives Napier the pink slip after the Gators match up with 4^th-ranked Miami (3-0) at Hard Rock Stadium Saturday (7:30 p.m., ABC) or if Napier does a Houdini and buys some time with an upset.

The people who set the point spreads in Las Vegas seem to think the Gators are in for a third consecutive close call since they’ve made Miami a 7.5-point favorite. A close call or blowout loss won’t do anything for Napier’s job security and from the perspective of Florida fans, a win would only delay the inevitable. They, along with a super majority in the national media, see Napier as a goner even if he leaves Miami with his first road win over a ranked team since he took the Florida job.

The reason few, if any, are giving Napier any slack is because the schedule ahead is a minefield. After the open date that follows the Miami game, the Gators are home against 8^th-ranked Texas followed by a roadie to College Station to face 10^th-ranked Texas A&M. Texas was the preseason favorite to win the national championship and the Aggies are playing like they might be the toughest and most dangerous team on the Florida schedule. Get past those two games and the Gators still have games remaining with 5^th-ranked Georgia in Jacksonville, at 13^th-ranked Ole Miss, and home games with 15^th-ranked Tennessee and 7^th-ranked Florida State.

“Reality is, you got to show up every week, I don't care who you play,” Napier said Monday. “Look at college football out there right now. So we're just as capable. We could easily be 3-0. Probably a dozen plays away from being 3-0.”

Yes, but at 3-0, perceptions would be radically different than they are now. We can fantasize about what coulda, woulda or shoulda been, but in the real world the Gators are 1-2 with a season already deemed a total bust even though there are nine games remaining on the schedule.

After seeing the Gators snatch defeat from the jaws of victory the last two games, no one seems to think Napier and his coaching staff can transform the team from one that finds ways to lose into one that can put the fear of God into any and everyone.

“We’re close to being pretty dangerous,” Napier said Monday.

Close, yes. In the 41 games that Napier has been Florida’s football coach (20-21 record), there have been 11 games decided by 10 or fewer points. In most of the close call losses, the Gators have all but given the game away because of self-inflicted wounds. 

Against South Florida, there were the holding calls that nullified two touchdown passes, ironically both on the same drive that wound up with a field goal. The Gators lost by two points. Against LSU, there was the TD called back because of a holding call and five interceptions. One of the interceptions set up a field goal at the end of the first half and the other was a pick six.

Nobody knows more than Napier how close the Gators are to 3-0. Nobody also knows more than Napier how the Gators have allowed two winnable games to slip through their fingers. In a best case scenario it would seem that his job is on the line and salvageable with a strong finish.

The reality scenario is it will take a miracle of the walls of Jericho tumbling down proportions for Napier to be coaching the Gators all the way through the 2025 season. The only control he has over his own job security is to go on a winning tear.

 Can the Gators orchestrate the kind of turnaround that will keep Napier gainfully employed?

"I think that they're a group that knows how they're that close," Napier said. "All parts of our team have to go play at a high level, given who we're playing. And I think that's, we're seeking that. And I think they know that, we know that, you know that. A lot of our guys are doing a heck of a job. So, yeah, we're close to being pretty dangerous, in my opinion."

SEC FOOTBALL

No. 14 Alabama (2-1): Bray Hubbard, who intercepted two passes against Wisconsin, was named SEC Co-Defensive Player of the Week … Alabama has the week off, which will help in the recovery of defensive end LT Overton, defensive tackle Tim Keenan and running back Jam Miller. All three could be back in time for next week’s game at Georgia.

Arkansas (2-1, 0-1 SEC): Saturday opponent Memphis has nine sacks in three games and is allowing only 69 rushing yards per game. Against the pass, the Tigers allow only. 5.7 yards per attempt … Arkansas is a 7.5-point favorite. Saturday: at Memphis (3-0)

No. 22 Auburn (3-0): Running back Damari Alston, safety Champ Anthony and wide receiver Malcolm Simmons are expected to play against Oklahoma. All three were held out of the win over South Alabama. Wide receiver Eric Singleton Jr. suffered a hip pointer but he’s expected to play Saturday … The Tigers are 6.5-point underdogs on the road. Saturday: at No. 11 Oklahoma (3-0)

No. 5 Georgia (3-0, 1-0 SEC): Quarterback Gunner Stockton was named SEC Offensive Player of the Week for his play against Tennessee and placekicker Peyton Woodring was named SEC Special Teams Player of the Week. Stockton threw for 304 yards and two touchdowns and ran for another. Woodring kicked three field goals and five extra points in the win.

Kentucky (2-1): A concern for Mark Stoops this bye week is fixing the O-line, which gave up four sacks to Eastern Michigan.

No. 3 LSU (3-0, 1-0 SEC): Dashawn Spears, who ran one of his two interceptions against Florida back for a touchdown, was named SEC Co-Defensive Player of the Week … HBC Brian Kelly says that quarterback Garrett Nussmeier is fighting through a torso injury that affects his ability to throw the ball. Through three games, Nussmeier is averaging only 6.5 yards per pass attempt with three TDPs and two interceptions. Saturday: Southeastern Louisiana (2-1)

Mississippi State (3-0): If the Bulldogs are able to score a win Saturday against Northern Illinois it will mark their first 4-0 start since the 2014 season … The Bulldogs are 21.5-point favorites. Saturday: Northern Illinois

No. 23 Missouri (3-0): The Mizzou defense gave up only four first downs against Louisiana and one of those came on a pass interference call … Missouri has opened as a 13.5-point favorite over South Carolina. Saturday: South Carolina (2-1, 0-1 SEC)

No. 11 Oklahoma (3-0): Running back Tory Blaylock, who gained 100 yards on 14 carries and scored two touchdowns, was named SEC Freshman of the Week … The Sooners are 6.5-point favorites against Auburn.  Saturday: No. 22 Auburn (3-0)

No. 13 Ole Miss (3-0, 2-0 SEC): Trinidad Chambers, the backup QB who led the Rebels past Arkansas in his first SEC start, passed for 26 touchdowns and ran for 25 last season while leading Ferris State to the Division II national championship. Chambers could be the starter again this week if Austin Simmons’ ankle doesn’t respond … Tackle Diego Pounds was named SEC Co-Offensive Lineman of the Week … The Rebels are 11.5-point favorites over non-conference Tulane. Saturday: Tulane (3-0)

South Carolina (2-1, 0-1 SEC): Shane Beamer is optimistic that QB LaNorris Sellers will pass concussion protocol and will play against Missouri … The Gamecocks are 13.5-point underdogs to Missouri. Saturday: at No. 23 Missouri (3-0)

No. 15 Tennessee (2-1, 0-1 SEC): Defensive lineman Jaxson Moi is listed day-to-day as the Vols prepare for UAB … The Vols are 40.5-point favorites. Saturday: UAB (2-1)

No. 8 Texas (2-1): Through three games Arch Manning is 47-85 passing for 579 yards (6.8 per attempt) with six touchdown passes and three interceptions … The Longhorns are 41.5-point favorites Saturday.  Saturday: Sam Houston (0-3)

No. 10 Texas A&M (3-0): Albert Regis, who had seven tackles and a sack in the win over Notre Dame, was named SEC Defensive Lineman of the Week.

No. 20 Vanderbilt (3-0, 1-0 SEC): Guard Jordan White, who didn’t allow a sack or a pressure on 30 pass snaps against South Carolina, was named SEC Co-Offensive Lineman of the Week … Vandy is a 26.5-point favorite against Georgia State. Saturday: Georgia State (1-2)