Both DJ Lagway and Arch Manning need to come up big on Saturday

(Photo by Chris Spears)

Well before foot hit football quite a few experts circled October 4 as a date in which the Heisman Trophy could be decided. Arch Manning of Texas vs. DJ Langway of Florida. The predicted national champ Texas vs. up and comer with a chance to make the playoff Florida.

My how things have changed. They’ve transformed from can’t miss kids into quarterbacks in desperate need of a signature win. Texas is still in the playoff hunt, but hardly the favorite anymore. Florida is trying to salvage what it can from such a rotten start that Billy Napier is hanging on to his job by fingernails.

Starting with a mediocre performance in a loss to Ohio State, Arch Manning’s Heisman chances took a torpedo to the bow and Texas flunked its chance to show the college football world that it was national championship worthy. Arch has rebounded, putting up decent stats against three horrendously overmatched opponents (San Jose State, UTEP and Sam Houston). When he goes against Florida Saturday (3:30 p.m., ABC) Arch will be facing the best defense he’s seen since Ohio State. He needs a big game in the worst way. His Heisman chances are currently doing a victory lap in the toilet but he can revive his reputation and help Texas get a win against a quality opponent. Sure, the Gators are 1-3 with a coach (Billy Napier) whose fanny is blowtorch hot, but the Florida defense is good enough to create plenty of havoc.

Lagway is showing what a lack of practice will do for you. A shoulder injury kept him out of spring football and from getting enough throwing in during the summer months. A calf injury kept him from live snaps until the week of the season opener with Long Island University. Due to a lack of live reps in practice, Lagway has looked nothing like the playmaker he was as a freshman when he led the Gators to four straight wins at the end of the year. Nothing tells the Lagway story of misery in 2025 quite like these two numbers – 10.0 and 5.6. The 10.0 is what Lagway averaged per pass attempt a year ago. The 5.6 is what he’s averaging this year. You can translate that into a quarterback who was willing to throw the ball downfield as a freshman who has transformed into the master of the 2-inch pass as a sophomore.

Both these quarterbacks need this game to go well Saturday. Forget the Heisman. The way both of them have played it would take a miracle of feeding the 5,000 proportions for either Manning or Lagway to resurface in the Heisman conversation. However, they both have plenty to prove. They need to show they can make plays against outstanding defenses, but more importantly, they need to show they can lead their teams to victory against a good opponent.

So, with Manning and Lagway in the Heisman tank, here are eight candidates to be sitting on the podium in New York when the winner of the 2025 Heisman is announced in December.

Eight at the top:

Diego Pavia, Vanderbilt: A Heisman candidate from Vandy? Surely you jest! Not! Vandy is 5-0 with Pavia leading the way with 1,211 passing yards for 13 TDs and 294 rushing yards for two more. If he leads Vandy past Alabama this weeks (he did it last year too), his Heisman stock will soar.

Dante Moore, Oregon: The Ducks are 5-0 and ranked No. 2. Moore has thrown for 1,210 yards and 14 touchdowns. He’s got Indiana in two weeks, after that the Ducks look unbeatable. Right now, he’s the favorite on most lists.

John Mateer, Oklahoma: Until he broke his thumb, he was the leader. If he comes back from surgery to not just play Texas next week but win, he probably vaults back into the lead. So far he has thrown for 1,215 yards (in four games) for six touchdowns and he has run for 190 and another five.

Ahmad Hardy, Missouri: Never heard of him? Neither had anyone else until recently. He gained 1,351 yards and scored 13 TDs last year at Louisiana-Monroe for a 5-7 team in the Fun Belt. He has run for more than 100 yards in all five Mizzou games, totaling 730 yards and nine TDs. The schedule gets much tougher the next four games (Alabama, at Auburn, at Vanderbilt and Texas A&M) so we’ll have a better idea then about his Heisman chances.  

Jeremiah Smith, Ohio State: This is the one guy who was on everybody’s Heisman list when the season began. A lot of people say he is the best football player in the country regardless of position. He has 28 catches for 396 yards and four touchdowns. Ultimately, he’s going to be judged by what he does against Penn State and Michigan.

Fernando Mendoza, Indiana: He’s originally from Miami, transferred from Cal to Indiana. He’s thrown for 1,208 yards and 16 TDs with just one pick, plus he’s run for two. Games at Oregon and Penn State will probably determine if he makes the podium, but right now he’s a legit candidate.

Tristan Chambliss, Ole Miss: He’s come out of nowhere. A year ago he led Ferris State to the Division II title. Now he is 3-0 as a starter with 1,033 passing yards (5 TDPs) and 266 rushing (2 TDs). If he keeps having big games and Ole Miss keeps winning he will be a factor.

Ty Simpson, Alabama: Since the first game loss to FSU, Simpson is 65-84 passing for 884 yards and nine touchdowns without a pick. Winning at Georgia was huge. He has to come up big in the next six games (Vanderbilt, at Missouri, Tennessee, at South Carolina, LSU and Oklahoma) to get an invite to New York.

On the fringe:

Gunner Stockton, Georgia: He was very average in the loss to Alabama and that will stick with the voters. You can’t throw for 130 and lose when the whole world is watching and expect to be a serious candidate. To get back in contention he will have to come up big against Ole Miss, Texas and Georgia Tech.

Carson Beck, Miami: Yes, Las Vegas still has him top two, but he hasn’t exactly set the world on fire. The Florida game was a real setback. To get back into serious contention among voters he needs to rip and shred against Florida State this weekend.

Haynes King, Georgia Tech: Tech is unbeaten and the next seven games are very winnable. He’s probably the best pure runner among all college QBs. If GaTech is 11-0 going into the Georgia game, he could at least make the podium.

Tommy Castellanos, Florida State: A lot of the luster was kicked off with the loss at Virginia. He has to come up big against Miami because there isn’t another marquee game on the schedule unless Clemson makes a stunning about face and Florida starts winning.

SEC FOOTBALL

No. 10 Alabama (3-1, 1-0 SEC): The run defense is a concern after Georgia hammered the Tide for 227 yards including gains of 21, 24, 29, 43 and 43 yards. Alabama is giving up 160.5 yards per game on the ground 14^th in the SEC. Vanderbilt is running for 223.4 yards per game. Saturday: No. 16 Vanderbilt (5-0, 1-0 SEC)

Arkansas (2-3, 0-1 SEC): While Rhett Lashlee seems to be the favorite of some of the bigger money brokers and interim Bobby Petrino has a big play offense, a name that is starting to pick up serious traction is Jon Sumrall, who is 36-10 as a head coach at Troy and Tulane. He’s a Texarkana native and that could weigh very heavily in his favor.

Auburn (3-2, 0-2 SEC): The Tigers’ issues are all on the offensive side of the ball. The defense is doing just fine, particularly against the run. Opponents are averaging just 88 yards and 2.56 yards per carry. The Tigers have 16 sacks.

No. 12 Georgia (3-1, 1-1 SEC): How far has Georgia’s defense fallen since Dan Lanning left? The Bulldogs finished No. 2 nationally in defense (267.9 yards) and No. 1 in scoring defense (10.2) in Lanning’s last year. This year under Glen Shumann and despite a cupcake schedule other than Alabama, the Bulldogs are giving up 324 yards per game which is 12^th in the SEC and 19.5 points per game (also 12^th). Georgia is No. 15 in the SEC with just five sacks (No. 121 nationally). Saturday: Kentucky (2-2, 0-2 SEC)

Kentucky (2-2, 0-2 SEC): Redshirt freshman QB Cutter Boley will be the starter once again Saturday in Athens per HBC Mark Stoops. “The players believe in him,” Stoops said. “He has the talent so he’ll continue to work and get better.” Boley has thrown for 402 yards and two touchdowns.

No. 13 LSU (4-1, 1-1 SEC): During an off week in which the loss to Ole Miss continues to resonate, HBC Brian Kelly said, “We have to get better. I think everybody’s angry. I’m angry. I’m angry at myself for, you know, not having the details in this game that we needed and that starts with us coaching. That starts with teaching, preparing your football team … I think there’s just a lot of disappointment in the way we prepared our team and I take responsibility for that.”

Mississippi State (4-1, 0-1 SEC): The starting O-line for Saturday’s game at Texas A&M are LT Jayin James, LG Jacoby Jackson, C Canon Boone, RG Zack Owens and RT Albert Reese. Saturday: at No. 6 Texas A&M

No. 19 Missouri (5-0, 1-0 SEC): Two numbers stick out when measuring Missouri’s defense – 2.64 and 5.3, as in 2.64 yards per rush attempt by opponents and just 5.3 per pass attempt. The Tigers give up only 66 yards per game on the ground and 141 through the air.

No. 5 Oklahoma (4-0, 1-0 SEC): Javonnie Gibson, who caught 70 passes for 1,215 yards and nine touchdowns a year ago, will make his 2025 debut Saturday. Gibson broke his leg during the spring … With John Mateer recovering from thumb surgery, the Sooners will turn to sophomore Michael Hawkins Jr. to run the offense. Hawkins has only limited action this year, but as a true freshman last year he completed 76-120 passes for 783 yards and three touchdowns. Saturday: Kent State (1-3)

No. 3 Ole Miss (5-0, 3-0 SEC): Three of the Rebels top four receivers came to Ole Miss via the portal. Harrison Wallace III (17-361, 2 TDs) transferred from Penn State; Deuce Alexander (17-313, 1 TD) transferred from Wake Forest; and tight end Dae’Quan Wright (12-273, 2 TDs) came to Ole Miss from Virginia Tech. Cayden Lee (12-226, 1 TD) is home grown.

South Carolina (3-2, 1-2 SEC): The bye week comes at a good time for the Gamecocks for getting healed up and re-tooling the No. 123 offense nationally. The next five games are (at) No. 13 LSU, No. 5 Oklahoma, No. 10 Alabama, (at) No. 4 Ole Miss and (at) No. 6 Texas A&M.

No. 15 Tennessee (4-1, 1-1 SEC): The Vols are putting plenty of points on the scoreboard (51 per game), but the high-flying offense is hindered by turnovers. The Vols have thrown five interceptions and fumbled the ball away four times. The nine turnovers are worst in the SEC and No. 122 nationally.

No. 9 Texas (3-1): Florida’s defense will be the toughest the Longhorns have faced since their opening game loss to Ohio State. The Longhorns managed only seven points and 336 yards of offense in that one … Texas averages 202.75 rushing yards per game. Expect Texas to try to wear the Gators out by pounding it up Florida’s gut behind their huge offensive line. The Longhorns have allowed only three sacks all season. Saturday: at FLORIDA (1-3, 0-1 SEC)

No. 6 Texas A&M (5-0, 1-0 SEC): Saturday’s game could be a flagfest. Texas A&M is next to last in the SEC and No. 125 nationally in penalties with 38 for -309 yards. Saturday opponent Mississippi State is last in the SEC and No. 134 nationally with 47 penalties for -427 yards. Saturday: Mississippi State (4-1, 0-1 SEC)

Vanderbilt (5-0, 1-0 SEC): The Commodores are 10.5-point underdogs at Alabama this weekend. Considering the Dores beat Alabama last year and they’re unbeaten you can bet the farm Clark Lea will be playing the disrespect card to the hilt. Saturday: at No. 10 Alabama (3-1, 1-0 SEC)