Bowl eligible for Florida Gators? Improbable but not impossible

Albert and a few others might faint if the Florida Gators somehow win six games and become bowl eligible (Gator Bait Photo by Chris Spears)

A few thoughts to jump start your Tuesday morning:

Bowl eligible. In most cases it means a reward for mediocrity, but given the difficulty of Florida’s schedule and the rash of injuries that have plagued the Gators since the season began, a 6-6 record that would not only give the Gators another game but the equivalent of a second spring practice is a worthy goal to shoot for.

At 4-3 overall and 2-2 in SEC play getting to 6-6 is a steep hurdle, particulary considering the next four games are No. 2 Georgia (Jacksonville), at No. 5 Texas, No. 8 LSU and No. 18 Ole Miss. That is followed by non-conference Florida State, 1-6 so far this year, but it’s a rivalry game and those are never gimmes.

When the Gators were sitting at 1-2 with the losses at the hands of Miami and Texas A&M, getting anywhere close to four wins, much less six, seemed the longest of shots, but the Gators are a much-improved team. The defense has played extremely well the last three games and in the 48-20 win over Kentucky, the Gators played like a team capable of competing at a very high level. As well as they have played, they will have to elevate their level of intensity to win even one of the next four, especially since they’ll face four straight quarterbacks that rank among the best in the country.

Can they win one of the next four and then close out the regular season with a win over FSU in Tallahassee? It seems impossible, but the Gators went on the road to Neyland Stadium and should have won that game. So, they’re capable of competing at a very high level. Competing and winning? Another story altogether.

Prior to the start of the season, the oddsmakers in Las Vegas set the over/under for the Gators at 5.5 wins. General consensus was given the difficulty of the schedule, 6-6 should be considered a success. Here we are with five games to go and 6-6 might be difficult, but it can be done if the defense can avoid catastrophe and DJ Lagway is given enough time to find Elijhah Badger, Chimere Dike and Tre Wilson running free in the secondary.

SEC FOOTBALL

A look at what’s ahead with five games remaining for the rest of the league.

No. 15 Alabama (5-2, 2-2 SEC): The SEC championship is out of the question, but the Crimson Tide still could make the College Football Playoff. The only way that happens is to run the table – Missouri, at LSU, non-conference Mercer, at Oklahoma and Auburn. Right now, don’t bet on making the playoff.

Arkansas (4-3, 2-2 SEC): The Razorbacks have a chance to get bowl eligible, which seemed next to impossible when the season began. Games with Mississippi State and Louisiana Tech should get the Hogs over the hump. The other three games are Ole Miss, Texas and Missouri.

Auburn (2-5, 0-4 SEC): At this point in time, just getting a win or two will rejuvenate the fan base which is rather hostile at this point toward Hugh Freeze. Winning four out of five to get bowl eligible seems an impossibility since the SEC portion of the schedule is Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Texas A&M and Alabama.

No. 2 Georgia (6-1, 4-1 SEC): The Bulldogs have a three game stretch of Florida in Jacksonville, at Ole Miss and Tennessee before two non-conference games to close the season. Georgia can afford to stumble once and still make the College Football Playoff.

Kentucky (3-4, 1-4 SEC): The goal now is to get bowl eligible. There are roadies with Tennessee and Texas plus a non-conference closer with Louisville. To get to 6-6 will be dicey but doable.

No. 8 LSU (6-1, 3-0 SEC): The Tigers could be the last team standing with an unbeaten record in SEC play this weekend when they travel to Aggieland. Three of their last four SEC games are at home (Alabama, Vanderbilt and Oklahoma), the only roadie at Florida. Go 8-0 in the SEC and LSU plays for the SEC championship. A 10-2 record almost certainly puts them in the College Football Playoff.

Mississippi State (1-6, 0-4 SEC): The Bulldogs are simply looking for a win and the only sure thing looks to be lowly UMass, an independent that might be the worst team in America.

No. 21 Missouri (6-1, 2-1 SEC): If Missouri can spring the upset on Alabama in Tuscaloosa this weekend, the Tigers could finish 11-1. That’s doable because the remaining games will be Oklahoma, at South Carolina, at Mississippi State and Arkansas, all of them extremely winnable. There is a really good chance the Tigers aren’t nearly as good as their record would seem to indicate.

Oklahoma (4-3, 1-3 SEC): The Sooners are a trainwreck on the offensive side of the ball which is why they have a legitimate shot to finish dead last in the league. The four SEC games remaining are at No. 18 Ole Miss, at No. 21 Missouri, No. 15 Alabama and at No. 8 LSU.

No. 18 Ole Miss (5-2, 1-2 SEC): The Rebels should be 7-0 right now but they’ve squandered away wins against Kentucky and LSU. They have to play Oklahoma this week and then at Arkansas, which is not a good place for anyone this year. After that it’s Georgia at home and at Florida before closing out against Mississippi State. Ole Miss has to run the table to make the College Football Playoff and that means they have to beat Georgia in Oxford.

South Carolina (4-3, 2-3 SEC): Winning two of five to be bowl eligible rests on the shoulders of a ferocious defense. The Gamecocks are going to have to figure out a way to score points to get to six wins with a schedule that includes SEC games of Texas A&M, Vanderbilt and Missouri and a non-conference closer with Clemson.

No. 7 Tennessee (6-1, 3-1 SEC): The Vols still have to play Georgia but the rest of the schedule is quite favorable – Kentucky, Mississippi State, UTEP and Vanderbilt. They lost to Arkansas and played Florida and Alabama too close for comfort. If they can get through the SEC schedule with only two losses they probably will make the College Football Playoff.

No. 5 Texas (6-1, 2-1 SEC): The last five games are all SEC – at Vanderbilt, Florida, at Arkansas, Kentucky and at Texas A&M. Suddenly, the Longhorns don’t look so formidable. Could Vandy spring the upset on them this week? They can afford one more loss, but not two.

No. 14 Texas A&M (6-1, 4-0 SEC): The Aggies could clear a major hurdle to their first SEC championship if they can stick it to LSU this Saturday. The other SEC games are at South Carolina, at Auburn and Texas at Kyle Field.

Vanderbilt (5-2, 2-1 SEC): If Clark Lea doesn’t win SEC Coach of the Year then there is something seriously wrong with how the award is chosen. Vandy has five games left to win one game to become bowl eligible. Who would have thought that? The five games are Texas, at Auburn, South Carolina, at LSU and Tennessee.

COUNTDOWN TO FIRING DAY: WEEK 7

Extinct Species List

Mike Houston, East Carolina: He was 77-25 including 37-6 at James Madison prior to ECU, but four losing seasons in six years plus a bleak outlook for the rest of the year brought about change. Names to watch are Western Kentucky’s Tyson Helton, LSU offensive coordinator Joe Sloan and Texas A&M defensive coordinator Jay Bateman.

Will Hall, Southern Miss: He was 56-20 at West Alabama and West Georgia with two trips to the DII semifinals. A native of Amory, Mississippi he seemed to be the perfect hire at Southern Miss but he’s 14-30. Expect former UAB coach Bill Clark’s name to be heard prominently in the coaching search along with Georgia tight ends coach Todd Hartley.

On Life Support

Billy Napier, Florida: The win over Kentucky earned him breathing room. If the Gators are competitive in the next four and find a way to win one of Georgia, Texas, LSU and Ole Miss, he will be back. Count on it.

Stan Drayton, Temple: Shirley Temple beat Tulsa. Who would have figured that? It won’t stop Stan from getting fired. The powers that be are asking why do we pay this guy $2.5 million when he is 8-23 and likely to lose the rest of his games?

Sonny Cumbie, Louisiana Tech: His fate was sealed with a loss to New Mexico State, which hadn’t won a game all year. It will take a miracle finish to get five wins in the last six, which would save his job.

Joe Moorhead, Akron: This is a dead end job. They didn’t realize how good they had it when the Little Dweeb (Terry Bowden) was their head coach. Moorhead is 5-26 with only one shot at winning a game (Kent State). Goner.

Mike Bloomgren, Rice: Rice is 2-5 and needs three wins in the last five games for Bloomgren to remain gainfully employed. A 5-7 record at a school that’s tougher to get into than most in the Ivy League could save him because at Rice firing a coach is so tacky.     

Mike Neu, Ball State: He is a Ball State legend as a player, but he’s 39-61 as a head coach at his alma mammy. Four wins in the last five games would save his job, but donkeys might fly first.

Dave Aranda, Baylor: Baylor clocked Texas Tech last week, shocking the Big 12. The Bears are 3-4. Three wins in the last five isn’t beyond the scope of possibility. A bowl game he stays. Five wins he goes.

Endangered Species List

Hugh Freeze, Auburn: Blowing a 17-6 lead to Missouri didn’t exactly endear himself to the faithful, but if Mr. Yella Wood says pull the plug, Hugh’s a goner. Auburn is 2-5 with four straight losses.

Jim McElwain, Central Michigan: The Chips are 3-4 and capable of winning four of their last five games. They are also capable of losing all five. Old Yeller is on shaky ground.

Don Brown, UMass: The Minutemen are 1-6 and there are paycheck games with Mississippi State and Georgia still on the schedule. Nobody can win here. They need to go back to D1AA but those paycheck games pay a big chunk of the non-revenue sports budgets.  

Mike Norvell, Florida State: The Seminoles are 1-6 and they still haven’t gained 300 yards in a single game. Florida had 313 at the half against the No. 4 defense in the country last week. Just saying.  

Trent Dilfer, UAB: The Blazers are 1-6. The only thing that’s going to save Trent is when they realize they don’t have enough cash to buy tires for a Yugo.

Kevin Wilson, Tulsa: He’s living proof of the Peter Principle, a great offensive coordinator who has no business being a head coach. Tulsa just lost to Shirley Temple, which is something no respectable program does. He’s only in year two so he will get a third year – probably. No guarantees here although the school doesn’t have any money.

ONE FINAL PITHY THOUGHT: There is still way too much to go in the season before we’ll know for sure who’s in and who’s out of the College Football Playoff, but here is a look at the teams that are probable, plus those who have work to do to get in.

SEC

Probable: Georgia, Texas A&M, LSU

Work to do: Texas, Ole Miss, Missouri

Big Ten

Probable: Oregon, Ohio State, Penn State

Work to do: Illinois

Big 12

Probable: Iowa State, BYU

Work to do: Kansas State, Colorado

ACC

Probable: Miami, Clemson

Work to do: SMU, Pittsburgh, Duke

Independents

Probable: Notre Dame

Group of Five

Probable: Boise State

Work to do: Army, Navy, UNLV, Liberty, Louisiana