BUDDY BLOG. The Golden Rule: Seeking ‘Way Too Early’ Forecast Through All The Glitter.

"SEC football is becoming The Money Game, if it wasn’t already. And the Golden Rule prevails – you got the gold, you rule. In that regard, Texas A&M and future state conference colleague Texas are the Fort Knox."

THE GOLDEN RULE: HE WHO HAS IT RULES.

Ah, June, the time we once set aside for pre-season football magazine evaluations and forecasts. It’s time to declare your expectations for your favorite college football team, now known as the “Way Too Early” Projections. Destin is over, SEC Media Days are pending and, as the HBC called it, it's nearly “Talkin’ Season.”

So here goes. Of this I am certain: Almost nothing is for certain, even in 2022 -- even in the surefire, Gold-plated SEC.

If I were buying stock or gambling on outcomes of the 2022 SEC football season – which only guys like Danny Sheridan should be doing -- I might venture a guess that Georgia will be really, really good again, but Alabama might be a touch better. No revelation there.

Texas A&M may not live up to championship expectations. I am trending away from last season’s dark horses like Kentucky, South Carolina and Arkansas, but I am bullish on Ole Miss and Tennessee – as contenders, but not at the championship level of Alabama and Georgia.

Legitimate dark horses for 2022 are tough to come by without real world solutions to the TP/NIL yet. And by now that has been cussed and discussed ad infinitum. Just to be upfront about it, put me down as “Undecided” for Florida right now, but trending upward.

SEC football is becoming The Money Game, if it wasn’t already. And the Golden Rule prevails – you got the gold, you rule. In that regard, Texas A&M and future state conference colleague Texas are the Fort Knox.

Wherefore art thou even a smidgeon of amateurism? So much for that delusion anymore.

"It's a draw," says Tony Barnhart (UGA (photo )

One of the wizards of CFB, himself nicknamed “mrcfb,” appeared on The Buddy Martin show this week. Tony Barnhart, optimist by day and football commentator by night, warned those planning to join the SEC Cash Dash against the idea of competing with teams in the Oil patch: “When oil is $90 a barrel, these teams have a distinguished advantage.”

At the same time, one could see Nick Saban not wanting to pass on an opportunity for leveraging those oligarchs of Alabama football when he had it a few weeks ago. The game is changing rapidly. And for the guy who’s been plucking championships like daises, that’s bad news.

“Nick was in a room full of CEOs (about another matter) and told them, ‘Hey, y’all got to step up,’” said Barnhart. “Alabama is not used to having somebody who can hang with them financially. And now they do in Texas A&M.”

So Saban threw the first punch, it connected, and the next day Jimbo started The Brawl. After which it was expected to become the Thrillah In Manilla, or the Test-InDestin.

Now you understand the sub-plot for the Saban-Fisher Heavyweight Bout which began rumbling a few weeks ago but actually never materialized because both fighters went back to their corners after presumably being admonished by the referee/boss, Greg Sankey.

Saban chilled, barely acknowledging his disciple Jimbo in public, and claimed he was misinterpreted about how Fisher “bought” his prized recruiting class, and said it was nothing personal. “I’m just fine with Jimbo,” he said.

After his meltdown, Jimbo said even less as he wound up sitting between two SEC officials in Destin because he was chair of the football coaches meeting. His standard answer to every media question about the dust-up with Saban was: “We’re moving on!”

And move they did. Most of the work-talk was about the proper model for the new schedule – one permanent opponent or three when Oklahoma and Texas join. Frankly, it’s the kind of boring administrative shop talk that puts the media to sleep. Except for the way it eventually impacts the national tournament. So moving on was a gift.

What we can take away is that this is not Bear Bryant’s football anymore – or for that matter, even Steve Spurrier’s.

Sanky heeded the football coaches: “It's never going to be the way it was, (but) that doesn't mean it has to be the way it is."

On the other hand, it’s just football and they can only put eleven on the field at a time, so maybe we’re making this too difficult.

I asked Sheridan, The Wagering Sage who seems to have a solid grasp on this projections/forecast business after all these years: Isn’t it difficult to handicap the fortunes of teams with all these pressing matters?

“It's not difficult to handicap CFB games once the players are known,” Sheridan said. “It's the same with the NFL ... if a team is good & improves with a TP (Transfer Portal) QB, it's easily factored in. e.g. barring a major injury, UF will be a 2.5-3 point home underdog to Utah regardless of any TP or NIL deals.”

I trust Sheridan’s line. Most of the services have the Gators as 1.5 point underdogs to the Utes. Earlier this year, one of those offshore lines listed UF as a slight favorite. Perhaps moving the game to 7 p.m. and a slightly cooler venue impacted the Wise Guys – I have no idea or inside info.

Even with all that, there has never been a summer where so many uncertainties and untried theories have bumfuzzled coaches and fans.

Which is why there is such a premium on smart coaches with an exceptional quarterback, a playmaking defense, strong support staff and a solid plan. And you know where that leads us?

Right to Hogtown.

I’m not going to bloviate on the greatness of Billy Napier’s potential, because that’s a damning word in many ways. Never mind “potential,” let’s just say straight up that he’s served his apprenticeship, he’s ready, he checks all the boxes and could probably deliver them for FedEx — and on time. He’s studied at the feet of the masters, built his football temple on a solid rock foundation and seems poised to strike this fall.

Plus he’s a clear-thinker who takes copious notes and has embraced the New School of thought about 2022-style football and how it balances against the Old School values taught to him by his daddy, Dabbo Swinney and Saban.

I’m not ready to declare him the next Saban, but Billy Napier is beginning to look like the right guy at the right time. We’ll start to find out Sept. 3. I can’t wait.