BUDDY MARTIN BLOG: The Forecast, From Recruiting To The Field: “Cloudy With Meatballs.” Promising!

“If you want my opinion on a sensible recruiting score for Billy Napier, based on little or no knowledge on my part about these new players, let’s just say, ‘He fought it to draw.’ But stay tuned, because this is going to overtime.”

Man does not live by scheme alone. (See Dan Mullen.) Man does not live by recruiting stars alone, either. (See Billy Napier.) Around the SEC, man lives by the Ws, which means coaches require a little of each for being successful. Given my choice between the two, like all of you, I’ll take the Ws over the stars. And this just in: The Florida Gators are not the leaders in the clubhouse on either.

Let’s just go ahead and admit, NSD2 was not what the Florida fans or coaches were hoping for – but hardly a bust! More like TBC – To Be Continued. So should we even have the season, or go ahead and concede Jimbo Fisher the next four national championships?

Let me make this clear one more time: Just as the NFL Draft is NOT a real competition in which a legitimate score is kept or a championship won, neither is National Signing Day a real tournament. If it were, then Texas A&M would have already clinched the title: Game, Set, Match, Aggies, with seven five-stars. But anybody would be fool to de-emphasize recruiting of the best players as critical to competing in the SEC.

It’s all right for Gator fans to be disappointed a little, but they should wait for the rest of the story. And it’s OK to be starstruck and dream a little about Harold Perkins or Trevonte Citizen. But just because you obsess over their constellations of stars, they won’t become Gators just by speaking them into existence. So say goodbye to Trevonte and Harold.

Of course we realize recruiting is the lifeblood of college football! In the words of that old football philosopher Ron Zook – himself once considered a recruiting Mac Daddy (look it up millennials) – “It’s not about the X’s and O’s. It’s the Jimmys and the Joes!”

Jimbo Fisher: Did he or didn't he? (Texas A&M photo)

I literally don’t see any of those Jimmys or Joes on the Gator or Aggie rosters. There is a Ju, an Aldo, an Enai and an Ish on the list of 2022 Texas A&M commits, but nary a Jimmy or Joe. Florida has a Shemar, a Jamari, a Miguel and a Kamari, but no Jimmy or Joe. So perhaps they are going under an assumed name – or that quote needs updating.

If you want my opinion on a sensible recruiting score for Billy Napier, based on little or no knowledge on my part about these new players, let’s just say, “He fought it to draw.” But stay tuned, because this is going to overtime.

If you must have a grade, give him an “I” for incomplete. Soon his work will be completed and we can begin making a valid evaluation. So far, I like what I see and hear very much. Except that maybe expectations often skew the reality of outcomes, through no fault of Napier, who warned us about wishful thinking.

What is remarkable is how much Napier and his staff have gotten done in 59 days – only a portion of it directly related to recruiting. Considering that they haven’t really even moved to Gainesville yet. That moving task was ahead after Wednesday’s press conference during the next five days as coaches went home to fetch their families.

The last two months have been a blur. On his way to the presser, all of a sudden it hit Napier, who turned to Director of Football Communications Rick Hurtado and noted: “Fifty-nine days ago we were in the air on the plane and hit the ground right out here! So it's been unbelievable.”

And now it begins to ramp up with spring ball in March. Without getting too far ahead of ourselves – as Napier says, he’s taking it “One Day At A Time, One Player At A Time” – there is still spring practice and the Orange & Blue Game (April 16), followed by another evaluation and a Transfer Portal injection. Come fall we can start crystal-balling wins, beginning with highly ranked Utah.

So despite the negative ratings – 247 did rate Napier’s class at No. 19 – the new coach claimed a small victory.

How does Billy gauge the job? He says he's pleased with the progress. (Chris Spears Photo)

"I'm pleased with the progress we've made,” said Napier. “I thought we answered a lot of needs. I thought we took advantage of each opportunity to add players to the team . . . So, much like we said before, one day at a time, one person at a time. We've added some really good people since the last time we stood up here with you guys, not only football players but also staff members.”

I can see the signs of progress in small ways. Napier’s fast-growing “Army” has created a buzz and I hear about it every time I have an out-of-state guest on my radio show. The players I’ve talked to are happier at UF. Conditions are rapidly changing for the better and new facilities are being unwrapped this fall

I even like the new moniker for special teams, “GameChangers.” There’s a designated person for that, newly hired analyst Chris Couch. “We call our special teams GameChangers. So when we're trying to create a game changing play, we all know the power of an explosive play on special teams. Kind of our way to create some urgency, some importance to that part of the game. I think it's the area of your team where you start building culture. It's a combination of offense and defensive players.”

And then there are core values. Throughout his last two pressers, Napier has emphasized the “C” word, which has almost become a bit of an anachronism in today’s coaching vernacular: “Character.” That term is especially important today because it applies in new ways to both programs and players. While Napier applied it specifically to his players and their on-field/off-field behavior, there is the storm cloud building up about who’s taking and giving money.

The NIL is not only The Elephant In The Room — it’s the whole circus. There were coaching rants, denials and implications tossed around by some high-profile coaches Wednesday and one can generally assume character assassinations will be around the corner shortly for anybody who scoops up more than their fair share of five-stars (see Jimbo Fisher again.). Critics are making it sound like a morality breakdown and highly toxic money grab.

Wisely, Napier played it off as an asset to be deployed, especially through Gator Collective: “The players create a tremendous amount of revenue for these universities. I mean, this college football deal is major entertainment. So there's revenue generated. And they show up to watch the players. They don't show up to watch anybody else. So I think there's an avenue here where we're moving towards revenue share. We're moving towards the player getting a piece of the pie. And I don't necessarily think that that's a bad thing. I think that it's a good thing. I think that the players are deserving giving supply and demand, like basic economics here.”

Now for the final phases before taking the field in September as the 29th Gator head coach, the guessing game begins about the product and what to realistically expect in the way of a won-loss record – that absurd forecast of predicting outcomes without a net. It reminds me of a movie title called “Cloudy With Meatballs.”

Since it’s Way Too Early for even a Way Too Early Prediction, I went to the history books for a model, the way meteorologists project the path of hurricanes. For dates, I only went back to 1960.

Looking at the records of coaches the 61 years from Ray Graves to Dan Mullen and taking only the first-year records of the 10 full-time head coaches, we can expect Billy Napier to win about eight games this fall, which sounds about right and would be two more than last year.

I’ll give him another half game just for his work ethic, leadership of the “Army,” the power of Gator heritage and past performance. And there you have it. I make the model for a over/under on Billy Napier’s first year at 8.5 wins. I’m sure Las Vegas will be calling me soon to factor this in its calculations. (By the way, the meatballs are 5-stars, if your’re scoring at home).