Can the Gators find the consistency it takes to upset 5th-ranked UGa

(Photo by Chris Spears)

Even before Billy Napier was fired, the Florida Gators would have been given a fighting chance to spring an upset over 5^th-ranked Georgia Saturday in Jacksonville (3:30 p.m., ABC). The Gators (3-4, 2-2 SEC) have this nagging habit of bringing out the worst in opponents while Georgia (6-1, 4-1 SEC) remains a mystery. Are the Bulldogs like an avalanche, picking up momentum enough to bury anyone in their path as the regular season begins its final month, or are they a flawed team that is capable of losing to four of their final five opponents?

Florida was supposed to be good this year, but the Gators have gone belly up four times. But it’s not like the Gators have been blown out. In all four losses, Florida was within a field goal or a touchdown at the beginning of the fourth quarter. These were all winnable games but either the Gators simply ran out of gas or Napier succeeded at punching the wrong buttons at the wrong time, crashing whatever chances there were of a Florida victory. Rather than give Napier a chance to solve a mystery of his own creation, athletic director Scott Stricklin pulled the plug 45 games into his Florida coaching tenure.

Georgia is ranked fifth, which is exactly where the Bulldogs were when the season began. Their one loss was by three points to then 17^th-ranked Alabama (now No. 4). The Bulldogs own a come from behind overtime win over 15^th-ranked Tennessee in Knoxville, were gifted a 20-10 win over Auburn in large part because of an SEC referee who continued the trend of screwing up to prevent Auburn from winning a game, and a rather impressive comeback win over then 5^th-ranked Ole Miss. The Bulldogs are either a team that is finally figuring things out or else one that has for reasons unknown gotten more favorable breaks than any team in the SEC.

Florida’s issues are not due to a lack of talent. Injuries have certainly played a part in losing games but even with sometime ridiculous battle casualty reports the Gators have been good enough to hang with highly regarded teams. No team in the country has faced a schedule as tough. The Gators have losses to then No. 3 LSU, then No. 4 Miami and then No. 5 (now No. 3) Texas A&M. The fourth loss is to highly regarded South Florida. The Gators own a win over then No. 9 Texas.

The roller coaster ride led to the demise of Napier and the elevation of wide receivers coach Billy Gonzales to interim head coach. Typically, two things happen when there is a in-season coaching change. Either the team goes in the tank or comes out playing like a team on a mission. We won’t know until Saturday which Florida team will show up.

As for the Bulldogs, this is the weakest and most vulnerable Georgia team since the 2020 COVID year when they went 8-2, losing big to No. 1 Alabama (by 17 points) and No. 10 Florida (by 16). The defense has continued a 2-year downward trend and the offense seems to be searching for an identity. Are the Bulldogs a passing team or a ground and pound run it down opponents’ throats team?

This is a game Florida can win but Billy Gonzales and the Florida coaching staff has to eliminate the inconsistencies and the trend of late game collapses. It’s too late in the season to make a wholesale change to Napier’s playbook, but the play calls can change to make the Gators far less predictable. Napier rarely took downfield shots in the passing game even though the Gators have one of the most talented and fastest groups of receivers in the SEC. Deep shots could definitely loosen defenses that have loaded up the box to make the Florida offense very pedestrian.

Will Gonzales take an aggressive approach that can set the Bulldogs on their heels? If he does the Gators will have a fighting chance. They’re only 7.5-point underdogs so obviously the people in Las Vegas believe Gonzales will take a nothing to lose approach against a Georgia defense that Tennessee torched for 371 passing yards and Alabama 280.

Georgia’s game plan has to center around punishing with a brutal ground attack that opens up the passing game. The Bulldogs have to establish the run early and grind the Gators into submission if they’re going to win the game.

The Gators took down Texas with a relentless pass rush and the best offense of the season. It will take a similar effort for Florida to win this football game. The good news for the Gators is that Napier’s firing served as a pressure release. All the pressure is squarely on Georgia’s shoulders. The Bulldogs already have one SEC loss. A second loss in league play probably eliminates them from a shot at the SEC Championship Game in Atlanta. It might also take them out of playoff consideration.

The Gators can win this game, but will they? Georgia has been playing on the edge. Will that come back to bite them? The pick: Georgia but white knuckles until the final whistle.

SEC FOOTBALL

South Carolina (3-5, 1-5 SEC) at No. 7 Ole Miss (7-1, 4-1 SEC): On paper, Lane Kiffin has one of the easier paths to 11 regular season wins as anyone in the country. Standing in the way is South Carolina, which has this habit of bringing everyone down to the Gamecocks’ level. That means an ugly game could be dialed up Saturday in Oxford. The Gamecocks have the worst offense in the SEC, which should be a huge break for an Ole Miss defense that has had some struggles lately. Ole Miss should hold the Gamecocks to 20 or fewer points. Can the Ole Miss offense deliver four touchdowns against a South Carolina defense that gets after the quarterback and ranks fifth in the SEC in pass defense? Look for Ole Miss to go ground and pound and try to throw efficiently. If the Rebels don’t turn it over, chances are they come away with win No. 8. The Rebels are favored by 12.5 points. Close early but Ole Miss should pull away late. The pick: Ole Miss

No. 9 Vanderbilt (7-1, 3-1 SEC) at No. 20 Texas (6-2, 3-1 SEC): Arch Manning is sstill under concussion protocol and is listed as questionable for Vanderbilt. If Manning plays, Texas has a legitimate shot to beat the 9^th-ranked Commodores. If he doesn’t play, Vandy probably wins again and remains in the hunt for both the SEC title and College Football Playoff. Every game is an elimination game for Texas, which will start Troy transfer Matt Caldwell in the event Manning is a no go. The Texas offense is inconsistent even with a healthy Manning. If Manning can’t pass protocol, Caldwell will get the start. Whether it’s Manning or Caldwell, the Longhorns are going to have problems with the Vandy defense. The Texas defense gave up 382 passing yards to Mississippi State’s Blake Shapen a week ago. Vandy QB Diego Pavia is far more difficult to defend. If he’s healthy and upright, Texas is going to have its hands full. Texas is favored by 3.5 points. The Longhorns desperately need Manning healthy and able to play at a high level. If not, any remaining title aspirations will go down the tubes.  The pick: Vanderbilt

No. 18 Oklahoma (6-2, 2-2 SEC)No. 14 Tennessee (6-2, 3-2 SEC) at No. 14 Tennessee (6-2, 3-2 SEC): The Tennessee defense is the cure for the miserable offense. Oklahoma is going to put some points on the board against the Vols. The question is can they get enough stops on defense to eliminate the Vols from the College Football Playoff hunt. The Vols have the No. 3 offense in the country. The Sooners have the No. 5 defense. Something has to give here. Tennessee has run the ball very well but the Oklahoma defense is 6^th in the country stopping the run. If the Vols can generate any kind of a running game, they probably win the game. Oklahoma lacks a running game which makes QB John Mateer vulnerable. With a running threat he is as good a quarterback as there is in the SEC but he can be very average without the run. The game is in Norman which should give Oklahoma a decisive advantage, but the Sooners are 2.5-point underdogs. This feels like Tennessee staying in the CFP hunt while eliminating the Sooners. The pick: Tennessee

Kentucky (2-5, 0-5 SEC) at Auburn (4-4, 1-4 SEC): The coach who wins this one might not last the season but he probably punches his ticket to coach another game. Mark Stoops might be the winningest coach in Kentucky history but the Wildcats haven’t finished in the top half of the SEC in total offense in more than 10 years. If the Wildcats were at least exciting Stoops might be a bit more secure. His nearly $40 million buyout is hefty but do-able per big money people at UK. Hugh Freeze finally won an SEC game last week, but all it did was buy him a week. Lose to Kentucky and chances are good will flies out the window. Hugh finally figured out he wasn’t going to win games with Jackson Arnold last week so he turned things over to Stanford transfer Ashton Daniels and got his first SEC win. Can Daniels deliver for a second straight week? If he does, then Hugh Freeze will be within a game of bowl eligibility, making it that much harder to fire him, particularly since D1AA Mercer is one of the last three games. The pick: Auburn

Mississippi State (4-4, 0-4 SEC) at Arkansas (2-6, 0-4 SEC): The winner of this one is guaranteed to avoid the dreaded reverse run of the table. Neither team has an SEC win although Mississippi State has the three closest calls – overtime losses to Tennessee and Texas, a 2-point loss to Florida. Arkansas is capable of putting up points on anyone. The problem with the Razorbacks is they are capable of being scored on by anyone.  Although Arkansas is favored by 4.5 points, the thought here is that Mississippi State has the advantage. The Bulldogs are fourth in the SEC in turnovers gained (14) while Arkansas leads the league in most turnovers (15). Arkansas QB Taylen Green is an enormous talent but he completes passes to the other team and he puts the ball on the ground. This is Mississippi State’s game to win if the Bulldogs can avoid turnovers. The pick: Mississippi State