Here Comes The 5-Game Test For SEC Challengers

The stretch run in the Southeastern Conference officially begins Saturday. ESPN’s bracket genius Joe Lunardi has a record 13 SEC teams making it into the NCAA field, but these last five games will be make or break for what amounts to the league’s bottom feeders. Right now, South Carolina, LSU and Georgia are the only teams that won’t be on Lunardi’s NCAA dance card.

At the top of the league are No. 1 Auburn, No. 2 Florida and No. 4 Alabama. Auburn has a 2-game lead but four of the Tigers’ five games are against ranked teams. Even so, it’s difficult to imagine anyone but Auburn winning the regular season championship and earning the overall No. 1 seed when the NCAA reveals its brackets on Selection Sunday.

Lunardi has the Aggies and Tennessee on his No. 2 line. Missouri has a legitimate shot to crack the top four. After that, Kentucky, Mississippi State and Ole Miss are rock solid.

Then things get interesting. Vanderbilt, Oklahoma, Texas and Arkansas all have work to do. Georgia isn’t completely out of the picture either. Could those four teams get enough quality wins to convince the selection committee that they belong on the dance floor?

Here is a breakdown of all 16 teams, the remaining games on their schedules and a legitimate look at their chances to get into the NCAA Tournament.

No. 4 Alabama (21-5, 10-3 SEC): Bama can score, no doubt about it, but can the Crimson Tide play a lick of defense? They gave up 94 in their loss to Auburn, 110 Wednesday night to Missouri. Every remaining game is against a ranked team. Barring a complete collapse in the last five games, Alabama will be a No. 1. Go 5-0 and the Tide could win the SEC. Bama is the No. 6 team in the NCAA NET rankings.

Saturday: Kentucky (18-8, 7-6 SEC)

The final four games: No. 21 Mississippi State (19-7, 7-6 SEC); at No. 6 Tennessee (21-5, 8-5 SEC); No. 2 Florida (23-3, 10-3 SEC); at No. 1 Auburn (24-2, 12-1 SEC)

Arkansas (15-11, 4-9 SEC): Since injuries forced John Calipari to play with only eight scholarship players, the Razorbacks have become one of those teams nobody wants to play. They play everybody tough, home or on the road and they’re capable of beating all but about two or three teams in the SEC. Joe Lunardi has the Hogs in. They really need three wins in the last five to be certain, but that’s do-able. The Hogs are No. 40 in the NCAA NET rankings

Saturday: No. 15 Missouri (20-6, 9-4 SEC)

The final four games: Texas (16-10, 5-8 SEC); at South Carolina (10-16, 0-13 SEC); at Vanderbilt (17-9, 5-8 SEC); No. 21 Mississippi State (19-7, 7-6 SEC)

No. 1 Auburn (24-2, 12-1 SEC): The only game that looks losable is at Texas A&M where the Aggies do the kind of things to opponents that would land civilians for an all-expenses paid vacation at Huntsville. The Tigers have a 2-game lead in the SEC and they’re a lock for a No. 1 seed. The only teams that could surpass them for the overall No. 1 are Florida and Duke. Bruce Pearl has the kind of depth to win it all.

Saturday: Georgia (16-10, 4-9 SEC)

The final four games: No. 24 Ole Miss (19-7, 8-5 SEC); at No. 17 Kentucky (18-8, 7-6 SEC); at No. 7 Texas A&M (20-6, 9-4 SEC); No. 4 Alabama (21-5, 10-3 SEC)

No. 2 FLORIDA (23-3, 10-3 SEC): It’s going to be difficult for the Gators to make up the 2-game deficit with Auburn, but they have a legitimate shot to take over sole possession of second place in the regular season. The Gators are on everybody’s No. 1 line. The real question is which overall seed? Right now, most of the brackets have them in the West which is probably the No. 4 seed. Would the selection committee move the Gators to No. 1 in the East while moving Duke out West? Florida is No. 4 in the NET rankings. Todd Golden should get serious consideration for Coach of the Year honors after dealing with injuries without missing a beat. Florida is a legit Final Four team.

Saturday: at LSU (14-12, 3-10 SEC)

The final four games: at Georgia (16-10, 4-9 SEC); No. 7 Texas A&M (20-6, 9-4 SEC); at No. 4 Alabama (21-5, 10-3 SEC); No. 24 Ole Miss (19-7, 8-5 SEC)

Georgia (16-10, 4-9 SEC): Georgia has plenty of work to do and needs at least a 3-2 finish to avoid the Nobody’s Interested Tournament. The next two are against Auburn and Florida which means they can’t afford a loss in the last three. If you’re prone to wagering, put Georgia in your NIT bracket. The Georgia faithful think Mike White is the bomb. Georgia is No. 39 in the NCAA NET rankings.

Saturday: at No. 1 Georgia (16-10, 4-9)

The final four games: No. 2 FLORIDA (23-3, 10-3); at Texas (16-10, 5-8 SEC); at South Carolina (10-16, 0-13 SEC); Vanderbilt (17-9, 5-8 SEC)

No. 17 Kentucky (18-8, 7-6 SEC): At home the Wildcats are formidable, but the road has been unkind. Three of the last five are roadies. Of the last five, they get No. 1 Auburn at home, Alabama and Mizzou on the road. Even so, they’re a lock to make the tournament, if for no other reasons tradition and Wildcat fans travel better than any team in the country. Head coach Mark Pope gets a first year mulligan even though the Wildcats probably lose 11-12 games minimum. Next year he can sweat. UK is No. 12 in the NCAA NET rankings.

Saturday: at No. 4 Alabama (21-5, 10-3 SEC)

The final four games: at Oklahoma (16-10, 3-10 SEC); No. 1 Auburn (24-2, 12-1 SEC); LSU (14-12, 3-10 SEC); at No. 15 Missouri (20-6, 9-4 SEC)

LSU (14-12, 3-10 SEC): The Tigers have won their last two games but their last five are all against ranked teams including three top ten. If they can somehow win three there is a really good chance they’ll get in the NIT. If they post a losing record, head coach Matt McMahon might find himself looking for work. Their NCAA NET ranking is No. 78.

Saturday: No. 2 FLORIDA (23-3, 10-3 SEC)

The final four games: No. 6 Tennessee (21-5, 8-5 SEC); at No. 21 Mississippi State (19-7, 7-6 SEC); at No. 17 Kentucky (18-8, 7-6 SEC); No. 7 Texas A&M (20-6, 9-4 SEC)

No. 21 Mississippi State (19-7, 7-6 SEC): Four of the last five games are against unranked teams so getting to 22 or 23 wins is entirely possible. They’re locks for the NCAA Tournament. Lunardi has the Bulldogs a No. 7, which seems about right. They have a No. 26 NCAA NET ranking.

Saturday: at Oklahoma (16-10, 3-10 SEC)

The final four games: at No. 4 Alabama (21-5, 10-3 SEC); LSU (14-12, 3-10 SEC); Texas (16-10, 5-8 SEC); at Arkansas (15-11, 4-9 SEC)

No. 15 Missouri (20-6, 9-4 SEC): This is a really dangerous team that nobody is going to want in their NCAA bracket. Right now the Tigers are a No. 5 seed. The schedule is conducive for a 5-0 or 4-1 finish. Currently No. 13 in the NET rankings, they could be a top four. Mizzou lit up Bama for 110 points. They can run with anyone in the league and if you want to grind they can mug you. Because the Tigers went 0-18 in the SEC last year, Dennis Gates probably wins SEC Coach of the Year.

Saturday: at Arkansas (15-11, 4-9 SEC)

The final four games: South Carolina (10-16, 0-13 SEC); at Vanderbilt (17-9, 5-8 SEC); at Oklahoma (16-10, 3-10 SEC); No. 17 Kentucky (18-8, 7-6 SEC)

Oklahoma (16-10, 3-10 SEC): The SEC has been so unkind in Oklahoma’s first run through the league. The Sooners are No. 53 in the NET rankings and last four in for Lunardi. They have to hope and pray they can pick up a couple of wins in their last five and that the selection committee looks favorably on non-conference wins against Arizona, Louisville and Michigan. Best bet the NIT. Porter Moser might be feeling some heat from the boosters.

Saturday: Mississippi State (19-7, 7-6 SEC)

The final four games: No. 17 Kentucky (18-8, 7-6 SEC); at No. 24 Ole Miss (19-7, 8-5 SEC); No. 15 Missouri (20-6, 9-4 SEC); at Texas (16-10, 5-8 SEC)

No. 24 Ole Miss (19-7, 8-5 SEC): The Rebels currently sit on Lundardi’s six line and they have a No. 24 NET ranking. That’s the good news. The bad news is they have to play at Vandy, at No. 1 Auburn and at No. 2 Florida, plus they have a homer with No. 6 Tennessee. The Rebels will make the tournament but they may be fortunate to be anything better than a No. 8 when the dust settles. Chris Beard may be tempted to take a higher profile job.

Saturday: at Vanderbilt (17-9, 5-8 SEC)

The final four games: at No. 1 Auburn (24-2, 11-1 SEC); Oklahoma (16-10, 3-10 SEC); No. 6 Tennessee (21-5, 8-5 SEC); at No. 2 FLORIDA (23-3, 10-3 SEC)

South Carolina (10-16, 0-13 SEC): The only way for the Gamecocks to salvage anything from this disaster of a season is to get a win, therefore avoiding hanging a bagel in the SEC win column. They get Texas, Arkansas and Georgia at home. Those three are their best bets for a win. The NET ranking is No. 94. Lamont Paris is safe. For now.

Saturday: Texas (16-10, 5-8 SEC)

The final four games: at No. 15 Missouri (20-6, 9-4 SEC); Arkansas (15-11, 4-9 SEC); Georgia (16-10, 4-9 SEC); at No. 6 Tennessee (21-5, 8-5 SEC)

No. 6 Tennessee (21-5, 8-5 SEC): When the Vols are making shots they can beat anyone in the country. Rick Barnes’ defense rarely lets him down, but he hasn’t been able to turn the Vols into anything but very average on the road where they face the Aggies Saturday. That would be a huge win. They also get Alabama at home a week from Saturday, another chance to cement their current spot on Lunardi’s two line. The Vols are No. 5 in the NCAA NET rankings.

Saturday: at No. 7 Texas A&M (20-6, 9-4 SEC)

The final four games: at LSU (14-12, 3-10 SEC); No. 4 Alabama (21-5, 10-3 SEC); at No. 24 Ole Miss (19-7, 8-5 SEC); South Carolina (10-16, 0-13 SEC)

Texas (16-10, 5-8 SEC): The Longhorns are on shaky ground, but they have five winnable games remaining. A 4-1 record would move them off Lundardi’s No. 10 line and take the guesswork out of getting into the NCAA Tournament. If the Longhorns don’t make the field of 64, Rodney Terry will be sitting on a very hot seat. The Longhorns are the No. 35 team in the NCAA NET rankings.

Saturday: at South Carolina (10-16, 0-13 SEC)

The final four games: at Arkansas (15-11, 4-9 SEC); Georgia (16-10, 4-9 SEC); at No. 21 Mississippi State (19-7, 7-6 SEC); Oklahoma (16-10, 3-9 SEC)

No. 7 Texas A&M (20-6, 9-4 SEC): Currently, Lunardi has the Aggies sitting on the No. 2 line. Win two of the three games they have against ranked teams over the next couple of weeks and they’ll stay there. The Aggies are No. 16 in the NET rankings. Any game against a Buzz Williams-coached team is a guaranteed rock fight.  

Saturday: No. 6 Tennessee (21-5, 8-5 SEC)

The final four games: Vanderbilt (17-9, 5-8 SEC); at No. 2 FLORIDA (23-3, 10-3 SEC); No. 1 Auburn (24-2, 12-1 SEC); at LSU (14-12, 3-10)

Vanderbilt (17-9, 5-8 SEC): The Commodores are going to sweat on Selection Sunday if they have fewer than 20 wins. They are on Lunardi’s No. 11 line and No. 44 in the NET rankings. The next three games are against ranked teams but two are home, so there’s a really good shot at an upset.

Saturday: No. 24 Ole Miss (19-7, 8-5 SEC)

The final four games: at No. 7 Texas A&M (20-6, 9-4 SEC); No. 15 Missouri (20-6, 9-4 SEC); Arkansas (15-11, 4-9 SEC); at Georgia (16-10, 4-9 SEC)