Column: There Is Still Plenty To Play For In 2021 For the Florida Gators
Sunday mornings from September until November at 313 NW 11th Street in Gainesville followed a familiar routine for my grandparents. My grandfather got the sports section so he could read Joe Halberstein’s accounts of Florida’s football games. My grandmother got the comics where her three favorites were The Phantom, Terry and the Pirates, and Buck Rogers. She loved Buck Rogers although when asked if she ever thought there would be travel in space and men on the moon her standard answer was, “Donkeys will fly first.”
When Neil Armstrong stepped foot on the moon July 20, 1969, she commented, “A man on the moon before the Gators ever won the SEC in football. I guess a donkey just flew.” I can only imagine what she might have said in 1991 when Steve Spurrier delivered Florida’s first Southeastern Conference championship that actually counted or in 1996 when Spurrier and the Gators beat FSU – “The girls school” as my grandmother called it – for the national championship.
My grandmother had a way of putting things into her own unique perspective. She didn’t know much about football but she loved the Gators. She, like my grandfather, went to her grave without ever seeing the Gators win an SEC or national championship but because she never lost faith in the only team that ever mattered to her, she would have never allowed something like Florida’s 20-13 loss to Kentucky last Saturday to curb her optimism.
Due to that semi-disastrous loss to Kentucky, it will take the football equivalent of flying donkeys for Dan Mullen and the Gators to win the Eastern Division championship in the SEC. It is not totally beyond the realm of possibility but on the probability scale, we may indeed see a flying donkey first since Kentucky, which owns the tiebreaker over the Gators, would have to lose three games. In that it’s Kentucky and the Wildcats are famous for swooning just when you think they’ve figured out there is no rule that prevents a basketball school from having a good football team, then we can concede the possibility that the Wildcats could go in the tank. Georgia? The Gators would have to beat the Bulldogs in Jacksonville, which might seem improbable but is indeed possible. After all, Ron Zook beat Georgia in 2002, the only loss the Bulldogs suffered that year and one that kept them from playing Miami for the national championship. Now, Georgia losing another SEC game other than UF? You may think donkeys will have to fly for that to happen, but we should remember 2019 when the Bulldogs were ranked fourth and unranked South Carolina smacked them, 20-17, in Athens.
Whether donkeys are spotted on the radar or not, the season is not over for the Gators even if at the moment it seems the only realistic championship they can play for is some bowl game. At his Monday press conference Mullen pointed out there is still plenty of football to be played – seven games of the regular season plus a bowl game as long as the Gators get to the required six wins.
Six? Why settle for six when nine or ten is attainable.
Ten regular season wins would require the Gators to win against Vanderbilt, at LSU, Georgia (in Jacksonville), at South Carolina, Samford, at Missouri and Florida State. Only Georgia seems formidable among that group. Vanderbilt is one of the worst teams in all of college football and the Gators are 38.5-point favorites to take out their Kentucky frustrations on the hapless Commodores this weekend at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. LSU is 3-2 but if the Tigers manage to lose to Kentucky this weekend, it would shock no one if the plug is pulled on Coach Ed Orgeron. South Carolina is 3-2 but the three wins are against weak non-SEC opponents. Samford is D1AA. Missouri is 3-2 but the Tigers have the worst run defense in America, and it just so happens the Gators are the third best rushing offense in the country. Florida State is 1-4. Bad doesn’t even come close to describing the plight of the Seminoles this year.
Basically, the only two games that should truly challenge the Gators the rest of the way are next week’s game against LSU in Baton Rouge and then Georgia on October 30. Tiger Stadium at night can be one of the worst places in the world for a visiting team although Auburn solved that problem last week. In the daylight, LSU is less of a challenge because the decibel level is almost always decidedly lower. The Gators play LSU at high noon.
On paper at least, this is the best Georgia team Kirby Smart has put together but it’s not like the Bulldogs have been crushing the best and the brightest in the college football ranks. Clemson is a shell of its recent self, yet Georgia, even with a healthy JT Daniels, couldn’t score an offensive touchdown. Arkansas is a feel good story for 2021, but when the Razorbacks traveled to Athens they proved they are anything but ready for prime time. Florida is a better football team than either Clemson or Arkansas and this game will be played in Jacksonville. But, give the Bulldogs their due. They are ranked No. 2 in the nation and their defense leads the country in most categories. To beat Georgia, the Gators are going to have to win a rock fight.
Getting to nine or ten wins in the regular season isn’t the same as winning the SEC East, but it is not an insignificant accomplishment. In Florida football history, the best four-year records to start their UF careers are held by Urban Meyer (44-9) and Steve Spurrier (39-10). A 9-3 regular season record topped by a bowl win would put Mullen at 39-12. At 10-2 plus a bowl, Mullen would be 40-11. In SEC history, the only coaches with 40 or more wins in their first four seasons on the job are Meyer, Kirby Smart (44-12), Nick Saban (43-11 at Alabama) and Les Miles (42-11).
With 10 regular season wins, Mullen almost certainly gets the Gators in their fourth straight New Year’s Six bowl game. That isn’t the College Football Playoff, but that is a party that will have to be crashed at a later date. Making a New Year’s Six bowl is a big deal, however. With his New Year’s Six bowl wins in 2019 and 2020, the Gators finished in the top ten in the final polls.
Recruiting is another reason why there remains plenty to play for. With their latest commitment from 4-star defensive tackle Jamari Lyons (6-4, 295, Viera, FL) the Gators have moved up to 14th in the 247Sports rankings, 15th at Rivals. The Gators should continue to rise in the rankings, particularly with another 2-3 commitments of the 4-star variety likely in the month of October such as 4-star wide receiver Jayden Gibson (6-5, 190, Winter Garden, FL West Orange). The Gators are also strongly in the mix for 5-star wide receiver Evan Stewart (6-0, 180, Frisco, TX Liberty), who happens to be best buds with 4-star UF quarterback commitment Nick Evers (6-3, 190, Flower Mound, TX). The two are in constant contact and made the visit together to Friday Night Lights in Gainesville back in July.
The Gators can affect the recruiting momentum by closing out the regular season on a winning streak. Finishing on a 7-game tear to get to 10-2 in the regular season would certainly enhance the Gators’ chances to land some of the players on their board such as 5-star defensive tackle Walter Nolen (6-4, 325, Powell, TN), 4-star defensive back Azareyeh Thomas (6-1, 180, Niceville, FL) and running back Trevor Etienne (5-10, 200, Jennings, LA).
The combination of Florida winning and trouble at LSU and Florida State could also be a big factor in recruiting. Unless LSU finishes the season with some big wins, which seems unlikely at this point, it seems a foregone conclusion that Ed Orgeron won’t be coaching in Baton Rouge next year. The Gators are going head-to-head with LSU for some top recruits so a UF win in Baton Rouge combined with a strong UF finish and a coaching change in Baton Rouge could cause 1-2 LSU commitments to reconsider matters and choose Florida. Florida State is 1-4 but only the UMass and Miami games seem winnable the rest of the way. FSU is recruiting well at the moment, but some of those highly regarded commitments might be jumping ship if the Seminoles finish with a rotten record.
Recruiting isn’t simply about high school kids anymore, either. With the new rules that grant immediate eligibility for a first-time transfer and the one-year waiver that allows as many as seven transfers to replace kids that leave the program for greener pastures, picking and choosing from the portal has never been more important. From very good sources, the Florida coaches have been inundated with inquiries from kids who are ready to bolt their current school. With rumors swirling that Manny Diaz might be a short-timer at Miami, plenty of Hurricane insiders are bracing for a wholesale exit, particularly of players whose final choice came down to Florida and UM.
When it comes to transfers, perception is everything. While some players will see a losing FSU or Miami program as a chance to step right in and start immediately, others will be more concerned about winning and the chance to play at the highest levels. The perception of the SEC has never been higher and the perception of the ACC, where FSU and Miami reside, has never been lower.
Another reason why there is much to play for has to do with what’s in store for 2022. Per Phil Steele, Florida has one of the youngest rosters in the country so every game in 2021 is an opportunity for underclassmen to pick up the experience they will need to help the Gators compete for the SEC championship and perhaps a chance to play in the College Football Playoff.
Here is how the roster could shape up for 2022 if no one transfers out. This also does not take into account signees or incoming transfers (returning starters boldface; * could declare for NFL)
Quarterbacks (4): Emory Jones (RSR), Anthony Richardson (RSO), Carlos Del Rio-Wilson (RFR), Jalen Kitna (RFR)
Running backs (3): Nay’Quan Wright RJR), Demarkcus Bowman (RSO), Lorenzo Lingard (RSR)
Wide receivers (8): * Justin Shorter (RSR), * Jacob Copeland (RJR), Trent Whittemore (RJR), J’Markis Weston (RJR), Ja’Quavion Fraziars (JR), Xzavier Henderson (JR), Daejon Reynolds (RFR), Marcus Burke (RFR)
Tight ends (4): Keon Zipperer (JR), Jonathan Odom (RSO), Nick Elksnis (SO), Gage Wilcox (RFR)
O-linemen (13): * Richard Gouraige (RSR), Ethan White (SR), Kingsley Eguakun (RJR), Josh Braun (JR), Michael Tarquin (RJR), Riley Simonds (RJR), Will Harrod (RJR), Kaleb Boateng (RJR), Gerald Mincey (RSO), Richie Leonard (RSO), Yousef Mugharbil (RFR), Austin Barber (RFR), Jake Slaughter (RJR)
D-linemen (11): Dante Zanders (RSR), Griffin McDowell (RSR), Jaelin Humphries (RJR), Gervon Dexter (JR), Princely Umanmielen (JR), Jalen Lee (JR), Lamar Goods (RSO), Desmond Watson (SO), Chris Thomas Jr. (RFR), Justus Boone (RFR), Tyreak Sapp (RFR)
Linebackers (11): * Brenton Cox Jr. (RSR), David Reese (RSR), Mohamoud Diabate (SR), Khris Bogle (SR), Lloyd Summerall III (RJR), Ty’Ron Hopper (RJR), Derek Wingo (JR), Diwun Black (JR), Antwaun Powell (RSO), Scooby Williams (RFR), Chief Borders (RFR)
Secondary (15): * Kaiir Elam (SR), Jadarrius Perkins (SR), Jaydon Hill (RJR), Tre’Vez Johnson (JR),Rashad Torrence II (JR), Mordecai McDaniel (JR), Avery Helm (RSO), Ethan Pouncey (RSO), Fenley Graham Jr. (RSO), Kamar Wilcoxson (RSO), Jason Marshall Jr. (SO), Donovan McMillon (SO), Corey Collier Jr. (SO), Dakota Mitchell (RFR), Jordan Young (RFR),
Special teams (2): Jeremy Crawshaw (P); Rocco Underwood (LS)
Graduates/seniors who could return for an extra year due to the NCAA COVID rule: RB Dameon Pierce, RB Malik Davis, S Trey Dean III, LB Amari Burney, PK Jace Christmann, DE Zachary Carter, DL Antonio Valentino, DL Daquan Newkirk, DL Tyrone Truesell
This will be a quality roster from top to bottom in 2022 that will have as much or more experience than any team in the Southeastern Conference, particularly when enhanced by transfers and freshmen. This will be Dan Mullen’s fifth year on the job and there will be very few, if any, holes, all the more reason why the Gators need to finish the 2021 season strong, getting to nine or ten regular season wins and adding a win in a bowl game for good measure.
Donkeys will have to fly for the Gators to win the SEC East this year, but there is that remote chance it could happen. The Gators need to play like a miracle is indeed possible, but even if it works out to the contrary, they have plenty to play for. The loss at Kentucky is a setback, but there is still plenty of football to be played and plenty to play for.
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