Don’t Sleep On the Florida Gators Vs. Alabama. However, Past Results Don’t Predict the Future

By CARLTON REESE

The Real Carlton

Carlton the Doorman explained to me this week that a doorman’s salary is not enough to offset losses incurred while betting on college football. On this, I say there is not much more annoying than a doorman with an open palm.

In week two, Toledo and Tulsa beat spreads at Notre Dame and Oklahoma State, respectively, but that was not enough to offset the bets made on home underdogs who all failed to cover. I asked Carlton the Doorman if he is giving up on his “Guy” with the computer formula and he assures me he is in for the long haul and staying the course he’s trod the last decade.

With that, week 3 shows only three underdogs trending properly for betting purposes, and among them is not the Florida Gators (point spread losers in the first two games).

As for Florida, it has been fun the last two weeks hearing how Alabama fans don’t seem that interested in this game and quite frankly the pundits don’t seem too excited, either. Let’s check out those comments:

Paul Finebaum (ESPN): “Alabama’s not going down this weekend. They are that good and Florida has some issues.”

Heather Dinich (ESPN): “This is not (going to be a Florida win). I have questions about Florida’s quarterback situation.”

Cody Williams (fansided.com): “Without (Anthony) Richardson installed as the starter, this is going to be an Alabama win and pretty decisively so.”

Josh Pate (247Sports): “Alabama is ripe to be had. Nick Saban is telegraphing that they’re vulnerable. This will be a struggle, then an Alabama pull-away to a win and a cover (laying 14.5 points.”

The list goes on and on with zero national pundits thinking Florida will compete.

I have always maintained that these so-called experts and pundits never make predictions of future events – they merely spew predictions of the past. Because Alabama has dominated, it will dominate again. Because Alabama has won seven straight against Florida, it will do so again. Because Dan Mullen has never beaten Nick Saban, he never will.

All telling us about the past, but no one with the guts to make a real prognostication – there are no seers at Delphi anymore, just historians spewing out numbers and trivial facts.

Of course, Nick Saban has been saying all year (at least up to mid-week) in so many words that his team is not where it should be even though they’ve blown out two opponents. Sound familiar, doesn’t it?

For some reason, when the fans are complacent and the pundits pile on, that overconfidence seems to drip into a team’s locker room. This gives Florida a chance to shock Alabama, which is a juggernaut but by no means invincible.

Here is what the fans and pundits see: Alabama seven straight wins against Florida; Dan Mullen 0-10 in his career against Nick Saban; Emory Jones has four interceptions against vastly inferior athletes; Alabama has 5-star recruits currently on the bench.

I’m not predicting a Florida win and neither is Carlton the Doorman, but would it really be a shock to see the Gators win Saturday? Only if Emory Jones throws two picks in the process.

This is Alabama’s world and the rest of us are just paying rent to the Tide. Don’t think so? Just ask any Bama fan.

This week’s selections by Carlton the Doorman:

Road Underdogs:

Tulsa plus 26.5 over Ohio State

Ball State plus 7 over Wyoming

C. Michigan plus 19.5 over LSU

Road Favorites:

Wake Forest minus 5.5 over Florida State

System spreads of this week’s games of note:

Alabama by 22.5 over Florida

Georgia by 36.5 over South Carolina

Penn State by 4.5 over Auburn

Ole Miss by 9 over Tulane

Stanford by 20 over Vanderbilt

C. Florida by 6 over Louisville

Miami by 17.5 over Michigan State

Wake Forest by 31.5 over Florida State

North Carolina by 9 over Virginia

Oklahoma by 28.5 over Nebraska

Notre Dame by 3 over Purdue

Current system top-10:

1. Alabama (109.5)

2. Iowa (102.5)

3. Oklahoma (102.5)

4. Georgia (100)

5. Penn State (88.5)

6. Liberty (87)

7. Texas A&M (85.5)

8. Auburn (85.5)

9. UCLA (85)

10. Cincinnati (85)