Fascinating Numbers: “Lies, Damned Lies, And Statistics.” Gator Fans Will Just Listen
Ole Miss Prediction:“Trinidad Chambliss is going to have a FIELD DAY.”
By Eddie Gilley
“Lies, damned lies, and statistics” is a famous quote from Mark Twain who attributed it to British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli.
The problem is no one has found that quote in anything Disraeli ever said or wrote!
Maybe even the quote is a lie! But people use it all the time to point out that data and numbers can be twisted to prove almost any point you want to make or to highlight any strength that favors your cause.
SEC Country: Ole Miss posted the following on Facebook “Something that stands out when comparing Ole Miss and Florida: Florida passing defense: No. 98 nationally. Ole Miss passing offense: No. 8 nationally. Trinidad Chambliss is going to have a FIELD DAY.”
The stats are correct. So, let’s look at some more stats between the two teams. Team One is ranked #46 nationally in total offense while Team Two is ranked #3.
You already know the rankings for passing offense.
Let’s look at defensive statistics. Team One is ranked #97 in total defense, Team Two is ranked #65. Team One is ranked #78 in scoring defense, Team Two is ranked #63.
Team One is ranked #98 in rushing defense, Team Two is ranked #28. Team One’s opponents are a combined 4-5 and Team Two’s opponents are 7-3.
Who is Team One and who is Team Two? The Gators are Team Two in those statistical comparisons.
Ole Miss has the edge in passing offense and passing defense but is far behind the Gators in both total offense and total defense.
Florida enters this Saturday’s game as a favorite and ranked #21 while Ole Miss comes to town ranked #4 and an underdog?
Coach Sumrall may want the answer to why is that to be good drugs out there, but the truth is that the numbers favor the Gators.
Remember the quote that started this piece?
Numbers can be twisted and skewed.
But Ole Miss has played two ranked teams and one really bad team in Charlotte. Florida has played two pretty good teams in Auburn and FAU, and a FCS school that is looking like it might make the playoffs this year.
The quality of opponents can definitely affect the statistics, but how much of the difference is who they played and how much is truly the difference in the two teams themselves?
Ole Miss and every other team ranked in the preseason poll benefitted from the media bias of what happened last season. The machines that are major media decide which teams are going to the darlings before a down of football is ever played each year.
Most of the time they get it mostly right by the way. Leagues want their top schools to stay at the top of the polls and reach the playoffs for the prestige and the revenue. M
Numbers don’t lie but they also don’t tell the entire story. The football season is long and grinding. When the playoffs roll around, the body of work is big enough to make more educated decisions about which teams are the best.
When the conferences start playing in conference games, the cream of each conference will rise to the top regardless of what the early numbers showed.
The numbers say Florida should win on Saturday. But the game isn’t played by the numbers, it is played by guys who wear numbers. We will see if the oddsmakers are right and if the statistical rankings will change dramatically after the contest on Saturday.
One crucial number that can make a huge difference is 88,000. The fans in the Swamp could just be the difference maker to push the Gators on to a win over a top-5 team on Saturday afternoon.
Comments