Five reasons to be optimistic about UF football this fall

A swarming defense bolstered by three new coaches is reason for optimism (Photo by Chris Spears)

Spring has sprung, fall … well, it hasn’t fell. Yet. We’re in no man’s land now, time for preseason camp that begins with a Tuesday morning kickoff at The Heav in which head coach Billy Napier and assistants Russ Callaway, Ron Roberts, Tyler Myles and Joe Houston will be available to sound enthusiastic and optimistic. This isn’t the usual football dog and pony show for the media that we’ve seen in the past, but a lot of things are different than they have been starting with Florida football in a scramble mode due to three consecutive losing seasons.

You have to go all the way back to 1948 the last time the Gators started out on the heels of three consecutive losing seasons. The Gators went 5-5 in 1948. There are plenty of folks in the national, regional and state medias that would consider a break even (6-6) record in 2024 as a major accomplishment for Billy Napier. Many of these same folks are of the opinion that Napier will be seeking gainful employment elsewhere if the Gators go 6-6.

Some highly regarded people at the University of Florida say Billy Napier’s job is safe and that next year is win or else. There is reason to believe that even with the nation’s most ridiculous schedule Billy Napier has the Gators on track to tap the brakes on the losing skid.

Here are five reasons for optimism:

1. COACHING STAFF UPGRADES: The curtain had barely closed on the 2023 season when Napier announced defensive line coach Sean Spencer and secondary coach Corey Raymond would not be returning. It only takes a look at the numbers to understand why.  

Florida sacked the quarterback 45 times combined in the previous two seasons. Only 13.5 of those sacks came from D-linemen. In the last two seasons, opponents have scored 50 touchdowns on the ground. The Gators allowed an average of 4.84 yards per carry last year, up from 4.49 per carry in 2023. Replacing Spencer is Gerald Chatman, whose Tulane D-linemen were responsible for 27 of the Green Wave’s 35 sacks. Opponents managed only 112.71 yards per game on the ground, averaging just 3.55 yards per carry and only 14 rushing TDs in 14 games.

In 2023, Corey Raymond was in charge of the entire secondary. The Gators allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 60.6 percent of their passes for 7.7 yards per pass attempt. The Gators intercepted only three passes, dead last in the SEC and next to last in the entire country. Opponents threw for 226.7 yards per game. The new secondary coach is Will Harris, who came from the NFL Los Angeles Chargers. In 2021, Harris was in charge of the secondary at Washington, which led the nation, allowing only 142.9 yards per game and 5.5 yards per attempt. Now that coaching restrictions have been eased by the NCAA, the secondary will also be coached by Beyah Rasool, who coached the corners at Bowling Green last year. The Falcons gave up only 6.9 yards per attempt and finished fourth in the nation with 17 interceptions, 12 of which were hauled in by his corners.

When Jay Bateman, who coached the inside linebackers, announced he was leaving to become the defensive coordinator at Texas A&M, Napier immediately hired Ron Roberts from Auburn to coach the inside linebackers and serve as the co-defensive coordinator. In his first season with Auburn in 2023, Roberts improved the defense by seven points and four first downs per game. Considered the godfather of the creeper defense, Roberts is considered one of the most innovative defensive minds in the country.

One other defensive number has to get better with these new coaches and that is missed tackles. Pro Football Focus says the Gators missed 116 tackles in 2023, which is nearly 10 per game. Cut that number in half and the Gators probably would have won eight games.

One other upgrade is Joe Houston as the special teams coordinator. Houston spent the last four years with the New England Patriots. Punter Jeremy Crawshaw, placekicker Trey Smack and long snapper Rocco Underwood were all outstanding last year, but the special teams issues were on the sidelines where a lack of leadership led to far too many blunders like having two No. 1s on the field against Utah or the illegal substitution penalty that cost the Gators five yards and a missed field goal that would have won a game the Gators lost in overtime to Arkansas.

Quarterback Graham Mertz will be in his second year in the offense after an outstanding 2023 (Photo by Chris Spears)

2. NO SUBSTITUTE FOR A SECOND YEAR STARTER AT QB: Graham Mertz, whose 43 career starts rank second among all Division I quarterbacks, started 11 games at Florida last year before he broke his collarbone in the fourth quarter against Missouri. Judging what we saw when Florida State came to town, it’s not a reach to think the Gators would have upset the Seminoles at The Swamp with a healthy Mertz. A season ago, Mertz completed 72.9 percent of his passes for 2,903 yards (8.1 per attempt) and 20 touchdowns (only 3 picks). This was Mertz’s first year in the UF offense, playing behind a shaky offensive line and with only one experienced receiver to throw to. Mertz had an outstanding week at the Manning Passing Academy in Thibodaux, Louisiana, where sources well connected to the Mannings say he impressed Archie, Peyton and Eli with his recognition, decision making and strong throwing arm. The Gators have a deeper and more experienced receiving corps this year, an upgraded offensive line and this will be the second year in the system for Mertz.

3. THE SPEED TO GO VERTICAL ON EVERY PASS PLAY: A year ago, opponents were well aware that Ricky Pearsall was the only Florida wide receiver capable of stretching the field. Eugene Wilson III had the speed, but he wasn’t in Gainesville until August so he was learning on the fly. It wasn’t until after midseason when Wilson was used on much more than drag routes and bubble screens. He has serious speed to go with the best make you miss ability since Kadarius Toney. From the transfer portal, the Gators added Chimere Dike, Mertz’s old go-to guy at Wisconsin, and Elijhah Badger, who caught 142 passes in three years at Arizona State. Both have exceptional speed and good vertical route running skills. Kahliel Jackson had such a good spring that he’s expected to have a breakout 2024 after a 21-catch season a year ago. Then there are the four kids who could make a relay team for Mouse Holloway – redshirt freshmen Andy Jean and Aidan Mizell and true freshmen Tank Hawkins and TJ Abrams.

With the speed to have multiple receivers go vertical on every single play, safeties will have to back up and linebackers will have to play looser, which, in turn will open up the running game for Montrell Johnson Jr., Treyaun Webb and Jadan Baugh.

4. SIGNIFICANT HELP AT ALL THREE LEVELS OF THE DEFENSE: It’s one thing to add depth in places you need it. It’s something altogether different – and better – when the depth is both talented and experienced.

Up front, Napier brought in transfers Joey Slackman, George Gumbs and Brien Taylor Jr. Slackman was the Ivy League Defensive Player of the Year and one of the most highly coveted defensive linemen in the transfer portal. He’s been moved to defensive end in the 3-4 alignment where he’s got the strength to handle tackles and stop the run while still rushing the passer. Gumbs, who began his career at Northern Illinois as a wide receiver, kept on growing. Moved to defense, he had 3.5 sacks and 6.5 tackles for loss. He’s an athletic freak who’s still learning the nuances of rushing the passer but he’s got the size and speed to be a force. Taylor played at Blinn College in Texas where he was considered the No. 2 junior college player in the entire state of Texas. He has been moved to the D-line and will be in the rotation especially on passing downs. Additionally, the Gators signed 5-star defensive end LJ McCray, strong enough and talented enough to play and make an impact as a true freshman.

At linebacker, the significant addition is Grayson Howard, a South Carolina transfer who is the big, mobile inside guy the Gators lacked a season ago. The Gators moved former Michigan transfer Ron Moten from safety down to inside linebacker, where his size makes him better suited for the rigors of the SEC. Two freshmen will also be in the regular rotation from day one – Myles Graham, son of Gator great running back Earnest Graham, and Aaron Chiles, who wasn’t here in the spring. Both are 4-star recruits who should have been 5-stars.

On the back end, the Gators added five significant transfers in safeties Asa Turner (from Washington), DJ Douglas (from Tulane) and Trikweze Bridges (from Oregon) and corners Cormani McClain (from Colorado) and Jameer Grimsley (from Alabama). The reputations of Turner and Douglas are hard hitters who are ball hawks in coverage. Bridges can play both corner and safety. McClain was a 5-star who spent a year at Colorado before returning to his home state (he’s from Lakeland). Grimsley, a 4-star recruit from his Tampa Catholic days, transferred to Florida when Nick Saban announced his retirement.

Adding quality depth to all three levels of the defense will go a long way toward eliminating the holes that were so easily found and exploited a year ago when the Gators allowed 33 or more points in five consecutive games (UF went 1-4 in that stretch). A year ago the Gators finished 9th against the pass in the SEC, and 11th in the league against the run, total defense and scoring. Even modest improvement should significantly improve the overall fortunes of the team.

Trey Smack hit 17-21 on field goal attempts in 2023 (Photo by Chris Spears)

5. CRAWSHAW AND SMACK ARE WEAPONS: It’s a bit surprising how little respect these guys get. Jeremy Crawshaw routinely changes field position with moonshot punts. He would have finished first in the Southeastern Conference and second nationally in each of the last two seasons if he had punted enough times to qualify. Last year, Crawshaw averaged 48.86 yards per punt but only had 3.5 attempts per game. The year before it was 47.94 with 2.7 attempts. One overlooked reason for the low number of punts is Napier’s tendency to go for it on fourth down (54 times the last two seasons). That had everything to do with Napier believing his chances of making a first down were as good or better than the defense stopping the other team.

Smack finished the season 17-21 on field goals, 29-29 on extra points and 56 of his 70 kickoffs resulted in a touchback. He was 11-11 on field goals of 39 or fewer yards, hit 2-3 from 50-plus with a high of 54 yards against South Carolina. He averaged 63.4 yards on his kickoffs and had only one that went out of bounds. He finished 12th in the SEC with 80 points and fifth in kickoffs.