Five Reasons To Believe the Florida Gators Will Be Special
Updated: Sep 3, 2021
If you are inclined to believe the college football writers at most of the major media outlets, the only thing remaining in the Southeastern Conference is whether the championship trophy will be engraved to say Alabama or Georgia. Nobody is exactly giving the Florida Gators a lot of love. Phil Steele, who claims to be the most accurate preseason forecaster on the planet, doesn’t even have the Gators in his top 25.
Thank goodness games are played on the field and not in the preseason minds of the media because there are good reasons to believe the Florida Gators have what it takes to make 2021 a very special year. You don’t have to see the world through orange and blue glasses to realize that in his fourth year at the University of Florida, Dan Mullen has the most talent top to bottom of his roster that he’s had since arriving from Mississippi State in December of 2017.
There is just enough distance between the tough games on the schedule that if Florida can stay healthy, can avoid a COVID-19 nightmare and can catch a break or two along the way, Mullen just might be able to prove the preseason prognosticators wrong and make believers out of every Gator fan on the planet.
Here are five reasons to believe 2021 can be something special.
1. THE HEAD COACH
Let’s begin with the obvious. He won 69 games in nine years at Mississippi State and for several weeks in 2014 had the Bulldogs ranked No. 1 in the nation. You equate winning at Mississippi State similarly to the way they figure dog years to human years. An eight-win season at Mississippi State is like a 12-win season at Alabama. Nobody wins at Mississippi State consistently, but Mullen did and he took MSU to eight consecutive bowl games, which is unheard of in Starkville.
Obvious observation No. 2. He’s 29-9 in three years at Florida with three New Year’s Six bowls. Yes, the Gators lost their last three games of 2020, but let’s put that into perspective. It was a weird season for everyone. Midway through the year, the Gators had two unexpected weeks off due to COVID-19 that forced a re-shuffling of the schedule. Mullen has talked on more than one occasion how difficult it was for the players, not knowing from week-to-week if there was even going to be a game, not necessarily because there was a COVID outbreak at UF but one at the next opponent. Kids worried about family members back home who had come down with the virus. Players and coaches alike had to isolate and far too many meetings were via Zoom and not in person. And still, Mullen was 8-4, but more importantly maybe six plays away from 11-0 and the SEC Championship.
And now Mullen starts year four at Florida, playing for the first time with a team that is made up mostly of kids he recruited. These are kids who were brought to Florida specifically to play in Dan Mullen’s system and the system in place – a hybrid of the one he learned as Urban Meyer’s offensive coordinator, the one he implemented at Mississippi State and the one he’s running now at Florida – is getting the job done.
The national media is viewing this edition of the Gators with a certain amount of caution, based on the three-game losing streak at the end of last year, the loss of first round talents like Kyle Pitts and Kadarius Toney and record-setting second round QB Kyle Trask, and a defense that played as if it were under a social distancing mandate for all but a couple of games. The Gators are just outside the top ten in nearly everybody’s preseason rankings, largely because no one really knows what to expect.
What they should know is Dan Mullen has this habit of winning when less is expected. Nobody expected him to win at Mississippi State but he did. When he arrived at Florida not exactly as the top choice – Chip Kelly (to UCLA) and Scott Frost (to Nebraska) – there were also tempered expectations. Now that there are numerous unknown factors heading into 2021, no one in the media really knows what to expect.
You don’t hear Dan Mullen bellyaching about the lack of respect, at least publicly. Don’t think for a second he isn’t selling the disrespect card every day in practice, letting the Gators know that they’re sort of second class citizens who need to play football this year with a mega-sized chip on their shoulders.
In public, Mullen is saying all the right things. You know the drill … I have confidence in our guys … we’re working hard … we can’t wait to play … and so on. What he isn’t doing is sounding the least bit cocky. He wears this grin. Sort of like the cat that ate the canary.
Sometimes what you don’t say says everything and what Dan Mullen isn’t saying is he has the Gators right where he wants them.
That’s a reason to believe.
2. MAT DRILLS, SPRING FOOTBALL, OFFSEASON: THE SAVAGE EFFECT
Stewart Reese transferred to Florida from Mississippi State because he wanted to play a year of college football with younger brother David, wanted to be close to family down in Fort Pierce and wanted to be reunited with the coaches who recruited him to Starkville – Dan Mullen and John Hevesy.
COVID-19 was the hit from the blindside that he never saw coming. It eliminated spring practice, eliminated offseason workouts with Nick Savage, who had whipped him into great shape at Mississippi State, where he started 26 straight games, and left him to make far too many midnight runs to the McDonald’s drive-thru. He was 15-20 pounds over his ideal playing weight when it was decided football would be played, but there was also a COVID quarantine that saw him add another 10 pounds and balloon all the way to 370. He never was in good physical condition in 2020 and it showed because he lacked quickness and stamina.
Thanks to mat drills, spring football, offseason workout regimen and good nutrition, Reese will be playing somewhere between 335-345 this year. He’s feeling stronger, feeling like knocking people off the ball at right guard, and if necessary, right tackle.
Ethan White, who came to UF at 400 pounds in 2019, was 360 last year but he was injured and didn’t play nearly as much as he or the coaches expected. White is 319 this year. He’s got abs. Nick Savage has him looking like a lean, mean blocking machine.
Desmond Watson was an early enrollee at UF back in January, almost a walking eclipse who was so big he could block out the sun. He was 440 pounds in the spring. The roster has him listed at 400 right now, but teammates say he’s somewhere around 390 and continuing to drop weight. He may wind up as Florida’s version Mount Cody, the legendary Alabama nose tackle who was a stone wall who eliminated two gaps in opponents’ running game. Another Nick Savage special.
Unlike last year when the Gators seemed to run out of gas in fourth quarters, this Florida team will be in excellent physical condition. Just as important, the Gators are going to be tougher. Mullen has been mentioning this as have some of the assistant coaches. Physically strong teams that have stamina tend to be very tough.
The Savage Effect is one more reason to believe.
3. MANNA FROM HEAVEN: THE PORTAL GIVETH
When it comes to strategically adding transfers to fill gaps in the roster, Dan Mullen has been way ahead of the curve, even before new NCAA rules created what amounts to free agency. In 2018, Mullen supplemented the Florida roster by adding wide receivers Van Jefferson (Ole Miss) and Trevon Grimes (Ohio State). In 2019, he added EDGE rushers Jon Greenard (Louisville) and Brenton Cox Jr. (Georgia). In 2020, running back Lorenzo Lingard (Miami), wide receivers Justin Shorter (Penn State) and Jordan Pouncey (Texas) and O-lineman Stewart Reese (Mississippi State).
And all this was BEFORE free agency.
What Mullen did to plug holes in the roster for 2021 is nothing short of brilliant. Start with the D-line where he’s added three huge interior guys who were multi-year starters at their former schools – Antonio Valentino (6-3, 312, Penn State), Daquan Newkirk (6-3, 308, Auburn) and Tyrone Truesdell (6-2, 326, Auburn). Just like that a D-line that gave up a whopping 170 yards a game on the ground in 2020 looks like one that will eliminate running the ball up the gut.
The secondary was leaky in 2020 and several experienced players moved on to the NFL. So, Mullen brought in Jadarrius Perkins (Missouri) and Elijah Blades (Texas A&M). Both will be in the regular rotation when the season starts against FAU and it shouldn’t be a shock if they both are starters before the end of September. If nothing more they are experienced, older players who will blend in well with the talented kids.
An already loaded running back room got stronger with the addition of Demarkcus Bowman (Clemson), who used to light people up at Lakeland and is potentially the best breakaway runner the Gators have had since the 1980s. Placekicker Jace Christmann came in from Mississippi State, where he is the all-time leading scorer.
Mullen and his staff have been criticized far too often for their recruiting when, in fact, they’ve done a very good job of filling all the holes in the depth chart by combining talented high school kids that can be developed with ready-to-play transfers. Now that kids can transfer once without having to sit out, Mullen will be holding anywhere from 5-7 scholarships per year to take advantage of talented transfers. He has tested those transfer waters regularly in the past three years and has yet to be burned. And, because Mullen and staff are so good at identifying immediate needs, they’ve been able to capitalize by finding guys who fit perfectly in both scheme and the Florida football culture.
Counting the special teams, there are 48 players on the two-deep roster. You can figure 11 or 12 of those spots will be filled with guys who began their collegiate careers somewhere other than UF. It’s not a sign of weakness that Mullen and staff will rely so heavily on transfers. It’s actually a sign of strength and knowing how to plug a hole with a ready-to-go player who is experienced.
Because Mullen is light years ahead of most coaches in the country when it comes to not just finding transfers, but the right transfers, is just another reason to believe.
4. THE OFFENSE: EVIL GENIUS, PART DEUX
Back in the day, Steve Spurrier was known as “The Evil Genius” because whatever opposing defensive coordinators wanted to throw at him, he could dial up something that made them look silly. Dan Mullen is cut from the same cloth. Show Mullen an exotic defense and it seems like he will find 50 ways to make the coordinator on the other sideline rue the day he decided to take up coaching.
A year ago, Florida’s offense was essentially everybody breathing goes out for a pass. Opponents basically had two choices: (1) Blitz from every conceivable angle or (2) drop seven or eight into coverage. No matter what they tried Mullen dialed up something that would counter and Kyle Trask would find Kyle Pitts, Kadarius Toney or some other receiver wide open for an easy pitch and catch.
Trask has moved on to the NFL along with Pitts and Toney and so the offense takes a dramatic shift for 2021. Because Emory Jones and backup Anthony Richardson are gifted runners, designed quarterback runs will be trendy as will triple option pitches to the most talented set of runners Mullen has ever coached. In that respect the offense might look a lot like it did during the Tim Tebow years, when Mullen forced opposing coordinators to account for the quarterback in the run game. When opponents tried to gang up on the run, Tebow made them pay through the air.
The offense also might look a lot like Mississippi State 2014-15 when Dak Prescott threw more than Tebow ever did but was still a very effective runner. And don’t think for even one second that all those nifty pass plays designed for Kyle Trask are going to be collecting dust in a playbook on some shelf. Mullen says the ball just jumps out of the hand of both Jones and Richardson. He says both of them can make the same throws Trask made so the Gators aren’t about to abandon the pass although they might throw fewer times.
So, what we’re likely to get in 2021 is a concoction that would make Steve Spurrier proud. Figure it’s going to be a hybrid that is part Tebow, part Dak, part Trask and all about Jones, Richardson, that stable of running backs and a room full of wide receivers coached up by Billy Gonzales, who has this habit of developing NFL talent.
When Jones and Richardson aren’t taking off on designed quarterback runs they’ll be getting outside the tackles where they can either pitch it to a trailing running back, take off running if the corners and linebackers are too concerned about the threat of the pass, or throw it if the corners and safeties abandon receivers to eliminate the run. The running backs room is the deepest and most talented one-through-five that Mullen has ever had at his disposal with Dameon Pierce, Malik Davis, Nay’Quan Wright, Lingard and Bowman, all of whom are gifted runners as well as excellent pass catchers. There is no Pitts or Toney to throw it to, but circle the names Justin Shorter, Jacob Copeland, Trent Whittemore and Xzavier Henderson. They’re going to have big years. Tight end Kemore Gamble says he’s the best at his position in America and while that might be debatable, what is undeniable is the potential for true freshman Nick Elksnis who seems to have a bit of unicorn in him.
No doubt the offense is going to be different. Mullen doesn’t hesitate to tell you that the offense is completely personnel driven and this year’s personnel indicates a wholesale shift from start throwing from the moment the bus makes a complete stop outside the stadium to one that is far more diverse. Nobody could figure out how to stop Mullen when everyone and his brother knew what he was going to do. They’ll have a far more difficult time in 2021 when the offense is far less predictable.
Mullen is “Evil Genius, Part Deux” and that is another reason to believe.
5. THE DEFENSE: PREPARE YOURSELF FOR IMPROVEMENT
Florida’s defense cannot be as bad as it was last year. Period. End of story.
Since the Gators already hit rock bottom there is only one way to go and that is up. A year ago the worst Florida defense in history ranked 83rd nationally after allowing 30.8 points and 428 yards per game, which caused what seemed to be a very vocal majority of Florida fans to call for the head of coordinator Todd Grantham on a pike. Much to their chagrin, Grantham is still the coordinator. Is that because Dan Mullen is simply too loyal to his assistants or is it because in the three previous years (2017 at Mississippi State, 2018-19 at UF), Grantham put a very good product on the field?
As Mullen’s coordinator in 2017 at Mississippi State, the Bulldogs ranked 10th nationally. In 2018 at UF the Gators were 28th nationally but they cut a touchdown per game off the previous year. The 2019 Gators finished 9th in total defense, 8th against the run.
There is a history of success that follows Grantham so safe to say, Mullen considered 2020 an aberration and why not? There was no spring practice, no offseason workouts and defenses everywhere in the country took steps backward. Mullen says much of Florida’s problems had to do with too many “independent contractors” which, translated, means there were too many players out for themselves and not enough functioning as a team.
And, despite all their problems, if Florida’s defense makes a small handful of plays the Gators win the SEC championship and go into the College Football Playoff unbeaten and seeded No. 1. Of course, if frogs had wings, they wouldn’t bump their butts every time they jump.
So excuses and legitimate reasons aside, 2020 was a bad year and 2021 is a chance to put those bad memories in the rearview. Thanks to an infusion of five transfers from the NCAA portal and Diwun Black from juco, the UF defense will have a brand new look with expectations for vast improvement.
Much of Florida’s defensive failures a year ago had everything to do with the inability to stuff the run, which is why the additions of Antonio Valentino, Daquan Newkirk and Tyrone Truesdell are so important. They all three eat up space, fill gaps and are strong enough to get penetration. Having three big guys rotating in the middle with Gervon Dexton, Desmond Watson and Jalen Lee should free up edge rushers Brenton Cox Jr., Zachary Carter, and Khris Bogle to make life miserable for opposing quarterbacks. Linebackers Ventrell Miller and Mohamoud Diabate are both sure tacklers against the run and sneaky pass rushers who can be game changers off the blitz.
When there isn’t consistent pressure on opposing QBs, pass defense falls apart. That happened regularly last year. Kaiir Elam is back at corner and Trey Dean III has shifted from STAR to strong safety. Redshirt freshman Avery Helm will start game one as the corner opposite Elam with Rashad Torrence II at free safety and Tre’Vez Johnson at STAR. Elijah Blades and Jadarrius Perkins will be in the rotation along with Jason Marshall Jr., Mordecai McDaniel and Donovan McMillon. Talent will not be an issue nor will depth.
It is almost a blank slate for Grantham to work with. Last year is a thing of the past and this year he has better talent and more depth to work with, perhaps as much or more than any of his three previous seasons at UF.
A year older doesn’t necessarily make the Gators a year better, but spring practice, offseason workouts, a solid August and all this talent are reasons for optimism, so much so that the prevailing thought is that if Grantham can coach the Gators into a top 30 defense, Florida could be a legitimate contender for the SEC Championship Game and possibly a spot in the College Football Playoff.
All indications are that Florida stands to be much improved on defense, just one more reason to believe this could be a special year.
IN CONCLUSION
Dan Mullen doesn’t lack for confidence, but for a guy so confident he truly embraces the role of the underdog. He knows fully well the Gators are being written off and Georgia is being penciled in as the SEC East champs. He’s not intimidated by that in the least. If anything, he’s using it as motivation to stoke a fire in the bellies of the Gators. Talent plus motivation plus a head coach who is truly one of the real geniuses in all of college football when it comes to calling plays and exploiting a defense and you have a Florida team that seems ready to shock the world.
The season probably comes down to three games – 9/18 Alabama; 10/16 at LSU and 10/30 vs. Georgia in Jacksonville – so playing in the SEC Championship Game will be determined by winning two as long as one of the two is Georgia. I don’t see the Gators losing all three and I believe UF can and will win two. If Georgia’s one of the two, then it’s going to be a season to remember.
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