Florida Gators (2-2, 1-1) v. UCF Knights (3-1, 1-1)

Must win is putting it lightly as the Gators welcome the pesky Knights.

By Loren Meadows, GatorBaitMedia.com, Football Analyst

Florida running back Montrell Johnson Jr. (Chris Spears photo)

UCF Offense

Key Players-#1 QB KJ Jefferson (6-3, 247, Gr.), #7 RB RJ Harvey (5-9, 208, Gr.), #13 RB Penny Boone (6-1, 232, R-Sr./Ohio) #22 RB Myles Montgomery (5-11, 205 R-Jr./Cincinnati), #2 WR Kobe Hudson (6-1, 200, Gr.) #80 WR Trent Whittemore (6-4, 211, R-Sr.), #5 TE Randy Pittman Jr. (6-2, 225, So.)  # 78 OT Amari Kight (6-7, 318, Gr.)

Matchups To Watch: UCF Running Game vs. Florida, KJ Jefferson v. Everybody

UCF knows who they are offensively and the personnel plays with a high level of confidence. The Knights get to it and get to it fast with a rushing attack that currently ranks second in the nation averaging 326 yards per game. RJ Harvey is currently 6th in the nation in rushing and when Harvey is not toting it transfers Penny Boone and Myles Montgomery are more than capable. Boone was the 2023 MAC Offensive Player of the Year at Ohio where he led the MAC with 15 rushing touchdowns. Montgomery is averaging seven yards per rush for the Knights. The straw that stirs the drink is former Arkansas quarterback KJ Jefferson who is no stranger to Florida fans who saw him leave The Swamp with a win last season. Jefferson is third in the Big 12 in passing efficiency, averaging 211 yards per game with seven touchdowns and three interceptions. He also aids the rushing attack averaging 53 yards per game with two touchdowns. Jefferson’s primary targets are solid targets and familiar names. Kobe Hudson is the de facto number one leading the team with 15 catches for 349 yards and two touchdowns. Tight End Randy Pittman Jr. was honorable mention freshman team in the Big 12 in 2023 and has played quarterback as well. Former Gator Trent Whittemore rounds out the UCF perimeter threats and will return to The Swamp for the first time since transferring. Whittemore is rangy with sneaky speed and athleticism and will be very familiar to the atmosphere the Knights will encounter on Saturday. The UCF passing attack did take a slight hit on Thursday night when second leading receiver Xavier Townsend announced his intentions to redshirt and enter the transfer portal. Townsend was also the leading kick and punt returner for the Knights so his absence could be key. 

Same story different team. Except this time the team that does its thing the best is what the Gators do worst. Two numbers are key here. 2 and 110. That is the rank of UCF in rushing nationally against the Gators rank against it. Florida has been extremely poor against the run all season including the last outing where they were slashed by a Mississippi State offense that had netted just 66 yards against Toledo the game before. UCF had a less than ideal performance against Colorado last week rushing for just 177 yards almost 150 yards off its season average. UCF will look to regain its thunder Saturday and with the Gators struggling to stop the run all season. This could be just what the doctor ordered for UCF.

Last season KJ Jefferson had one of his best games against the Gators, passing for 255 and adding another 92 on the ground.

Did the Gators learn from last year’s mistakes Did the run defense grow some facial hair in the off week? Amari Kight and company had only given up three sacks all season prior to last week’s game. They surrendered five to Colorado. Was it an outlier, or was the offensive line exposed in an underwhelming performance? Gator front seven, I’m looking at you.

UCF Defense

Key Players-#3 LB Deshawn Pace (6-2, 220, Gr./Cincinnati), #32 LB Ethan Barr (6-3, 245, Gr./Vanderbilt) #10 S Quadric Bullard (6-0, 175, Gr.), #13 DB Ladarius Tennison (5-10, 200, Gr/Ole Miss), #11 DL Nyjalik Kelly (6-5, 250, Jr./Miami)

Matchups to Watch: Florida Offensive Line v. UCF Defensive Line, Mertz/Lagway/Dike/Badger v. UCF Secondary

UCF has a defense that likes to fly around and create havoc. Which is a necessity because they are not the biggest unit around. Defensive coordinator Ted Roof likes to design exotic pressures that can cause missed blocking assignments and errant throws that lead to turnovers. Cincinnati transfer Deshawn Pace is a versatile player who comes from one of Ohio’s top prep programs, Cole rain High School. He has the ability to play in the box and coverage and was an Honorable Mention Big 12 selection in 2023. Vanderbilt transfer Ethan Barr is tasked with stopping the run in Roof’s attack and has played well in his first season in Orlando.

Barr was a team captain at Vanderbilt and brings experience to the defense with appearances in over 35 games. Pace and Barr have been key to the run defense and UCF is currently at the top of the Big 12 in rushing defense and 11th nationally.

UCF has struggled to defend the pass at times this season surrendering 252 yards per game. Quadric Bullard and Ladarius Tennison have over 30 starts between them and can be solid on special teams as well. Last season. Cole Tennison was graded the top defender at Ole Miss by Pro Football Focus. Unfortunately for UCF, they have surrendered 692 yards and seven touchdowns through the air against Power 5 competition.

Along with their issues, defending the pass the UCF defense allowed a pedestrian Colorado rushing attack to manhandle them in last week’s game. While only allowing 128 yards total Colorado had two backs average over five yards per carry and UCF only sacked the quarterback twice. Nyjalik Kelly who had one of those sacks will look to make a bigger impact. The Gators should most certainly look to establish the run game early to allow the play action pass game to flourish. Mertz has been solid when given time and Lagway’s ability to make off-schedule plays with his legs and arms is an element that UCF has struggled with. The Gators will need to handle the exotic pressures and Mertz and Lagway will need to know where to go with the ball when necessary. Leaning on the smaller defensive front will be key for Montrell Johnson Jr. and his steadily improving running back mates. Colorado was able to push around the defensive front of UCF but spread the defense out to allow more running lanes. Will Napier be willing to play with three to four receivers on the field or stay committed to the condensed formations and two tight end sets he seems to prefer?

Can Mertz feast on the UCF defense? (Chris Spears photo)

The Skinny: MUST WIN!!! PERIOD!!! Let’s be honest. Anything short of a Gator victory no matter how is a death sentence, not just for Billy Napier but for the Florida program as a whole. A loss would be the second straight to the little sibling from the south and give the Big 12 a signature win in one of the SEC’s most hallowed houses. UCF has had only one Top 50 recruiting class since 2019 while Florida has had none lower than 18th. So what are we really talking about? Despite all the talk surrounding the future of the Gator program on paper this should be no contest. Unfortunately for all the talk about strength gains, improved athleticism, and lord-help-us character, the Gators tend to be a head-scratching underperforming bunch. That is one of the reasons why UCF will arrive in Gainesville as a 2.5 point favorite. I repeat favorite. It is time for Billy Napier and staff to motivate their players and get everyone in their “organization” to man the gate and “REMEMBER THE GASPARILLA!!!!” The Gators will find a way. Lagway’s legs are the difference and the Gators lean on the running game for a close but convincing win. 

Prediction: Florida 31 UCF 20