Florida Gators football: Things must change, they can't remain the same

Sitting in front of my computer, editors Fred and Ethel sitting on my shoulders approving everything I write, I reflect on a year that is within hours of being in the books. Where did all the time go? The days have passed so quickly, almost as if turbo-charged. Sitting here in the quiet of this condo on Lake Eustis, with only the chirps and occasional songs by the cockatiels who truly believe they are helping me, the words of the teacher Qoheleth come to mind. He is the speaker in Chapter 1 of the Book of Ecclesiastes, who says, “All streams run to the sea, but the sea is not full; to the place where the streams flow, there they flow again.”

Later in that first passage, Qoheleth says, “Is there such a thing of which it is said, ‘See this is new’? It has been already in the ages before us.”

The great French philosopher Jean-Baptiste Alphonse Karr read the same passages, dwelled on them awhile and then concluded, “The more things change, the more they are the same.”

Does that remind you of University of Florida football? If it doesn’t, it should. Since 2011 Florida keeps changing coaches, but every three or four years a new coach search committee is charged with bringing in somebody who can make the Gators relevant again.

It is December 31 and for the fifth time since 2011, the University of Florida will start the new year with a brand new football coach. Imagine that. The Billy Napier era is in the rearview and we’re only a few weeks into the Jon Sumrall era. Napier, like Will Muschamp, Jim McElwain and Dan Mullen before him, was fired for failing to come remotely close to matching the incredible runs of success of Steven Orr Spurrier and Urban Frank Meyer III. Like Muschamp, McElwain and Mullen before him, Napier arrived with so much promise. He was considered a hot ticket item with suitors standing in line to hire him and when he beat Utah his first game on the job back in 2022 we thought we were in for another magical run. He was the real deal.

Or so we thought. There were only a few peaks and way too many valleys until Napier’s bottle rocket fizzled out. He’s gone into the coaching recycling bin and emerged with his squeaky clean way of doing things up at James Madison. At Florida, Billy was compared to Spurrier and Urban. At Madison he will be compared to Curt Cignetti and Bob Chesney, not exactly legendary in SEC territory, but a very big deal up in the Shenandoah Valley. Those two went 40-11 in the last four years and parlayed their success into big time jobs at the next level. Cignetti moved on to Indiana which is unbeaten and the favorite to win the College Football Playoff in his second year on the sideline. Chesney put Madison in the playoff before he was whisked off to UCLA where he’s charged with resuscitating that dormant program. Hey, it worked for Indiana, so why not UCLA?

Can Billy Napier revive his once promising career at James Madison? Should we care? Yes and no. Yes because Billy ran a clean program and built a great culture at Florida. Players graduated and rarely got into trouble. That should be applauded. From Sunday to Friday he was a brilliant coach. Unfortunately, for him, he was paid to win on Saturday and he didn’t do that so well. We should say no, we don’t care, because we’re Gators and we have to be concerned with the here and now not the woulda, coulda, shoulda and didn’t.

Jon Sumrall is charged with restoring the Florida Gators to a place of prominence. He comes to Florida with a 43-12 record that includes three conference championships (2 Sun Belt, 1 American) and a College Football Playoff appearance (Tulane, 2025) in four years. No question about it, that’s impressive no matter if it is the Sun Belt and the American conferences.

Of course, Muschamp, McElwain, Mullen and Napier also had impressive resumes when they arrived in Gainesville but all four crashed and burned. Muschamp had no head coaching experience. McElwain was overwhelmed by expectations and scrutiny at a big time program. He told a whopper of a lie and got caught, forcing his dismissal. Mullen was too loyal to coaches who were rotten recruiters. Napier overestimated his offensive coordinator and didn’t look in the mirror to see that he was the OC.

From 1990 to 2010, nobody in college football won as many games as the Florida Gators, whose 210-57-1 record was eight wins more than second place Nebraska. The Gators won three national championships and eight Southeastern Conference championships during this stretch. To put it in further SEC context, Alabama only won 180 games, Georgia 176 and LSU 164 during that same time frame.

Under Spurrier (122-27-1 in 12 years, 1 national championship, 6 SEC championships) and Meyer (65-15 in 6 years, 2 national championships, 2 SEC championships), the Gators were the standard by which the rest of the country measured. Florida was a program to be feared but ever since Meyer retired after the 2010 season, the Gators have been on a downward trend.

Since 2011, the Gators are 110-79 with zero national or Southeastern Conference championships although they have made it to the SEC Championship Game three times (2015 and 2016 under McElwain, 2020 under Mullen). The same school that didn’t post a losing season from 1980 to 2012 has had six of them since 2013 – one each by Muschamp, McElwain and Mullen, three by Napier.

Alabama has won 183 games and five national championships since 2011. Georgia has won 167 games and two national titles. LSU has won 139 games and one national championship. Think of the disparity gap like this. Florida could catch up with Alabama by going 12-0 the next seven seasons if Bama were to go on an NCAA record losing streak.

Florida has gone from a true national powerhouse to one that is treading water in a pool of SEC mediocrity, surpassed by the likes of Ole Miss and Texas A&M, on the verge of being surpassed by Vanderbilt. Vanderbilt? Oh my, but the Commodores were so close to making the College Football Playoff this year while the Gators were gagging at the finish line with a 4-8 record. Making matters worse Texas (4 official national championships, 5 unofficial) and Oklahoma (7 national championships, 10 unofficial) are now in the SEC.

There are questions that must be asked and answered truthfully starting with the obvious, how did the University of Florida allow this to happen? The easy answer to that is since Meyer retired from UF after the 2010 season, Florida settled. There is no other way to explain it. A job like Florida, which everyone with a functioning brain considers has the potential of one of the top three or four jobs in the country, should be attractive enough to attract coaches at the very top of their games.

So, what did Florida do? The hires of Muschamp, McElwain, Mullen and Napier remind Florida fans of that line from the movie “Ruthless People” in which Bette Midler cries, “I’ve been kidnapped by K-Mart.” Higher profile coaches with better resumes were available. Did Florida go after them? Or did the people in charge of hiring settle for good rather than pony up the money, resources and whatever else was needed to bring in a name coach?

To Scott Stricklin’s credit, once Billy Napier was dismissed, he didn’t go K-Mart, he went Saks Fifth Avenue by setting Florida’s sights on the highest profile coach available in Lane Kiffin. The wooing of Lane Kiffin went on for more than a month before the Gators dropped out of the race. A couple of days later as Kiffin was doing his drama queen best to string out the hiring process at LSU, Florida hired Jon Sumrall.

So what happened? Kiffin got a 7-year deal worth $91 million. Florida had a better offer on the table. Was it a matter of trust? That is entirely possible. But it’s also true that while Florida has been wallowing in mediocrity, LSU has won a national championship, two SEC championships and has posted seven seasons with 10 or more wins. By comparison, Florida has the look of a show pony while LSU looks like a 3-year-old with Derby aspirations.  

With Kiffin off the board, Sumrall was being eyed by several top tier programs including three in the SEC. Some Florida fans are elated that the Gators hired a coach who played in the SEC and whose teams have played in their conference championship games (won three) all four years he’s been a head coach. There is a contingent of Florida fans who equate this to a car shopping expedition. The goal was to come home with a Porsche Carrera but the result was a Ford Explorer. There is nothing wrong with an Explorer, but it certainly doesn’t have the curb appeal of the Carrera.   

The hope of every Gator fan is that Sumrall delivers. The previous four coaches all proclaimed from day one that Florida is (a) one of the best, if not the best, jobs in the country, (b) championships can be won here and (c) they could deliver. None of them succeeded. Sumrall has echoed the same sentiments. Is he the one who will get the job done when the last four coaches have failed?

There is a lot on the line with this hire. Given his track record of hiring football coaches – he’s 0-for-2 – Scott Stricklin will be forgiven for the hires of Mullen and Napier if Sumrall succeeds and turns Florida into a championship-level program. But what happens Sumrall turns out to be an 8-4 or 9-3 type of coach? That is a step up after the last four years, but will that be acceptable for Florida fans who are desperate for a return to the good old days? And what if Sumrall wins consistently but with dull, predictable offenses? Will that be acceptable?

And what if he fails altogether? What happens if the hole in which Florida has dug for itself since 2011 is so deep that mediocrity or worse is the norm? It’s difficult to imagine Scott Stricklin would survive. He might not even survive if Sumrall turns out to be a coach who can get you to the Gator Bowl on a regular basis.  

Scott Stricklin has done amazing work raising the money that it will take to modernize the entire athletic program but he will be judged by this hire. He struck the motherlode for basketball when he hired Todd Golden, but he won’t get a fourth chance at hiring another football coach if Jon Sumrall doesn’t turn the program around.

If things remain the same things will have to change.