For a puncher's chance vs. UGa, the Gators must play well up front

Jadan Baugh (13) powers in for a TD against Kentucky behind a physical offensive line (Gator Bait Photo by Chris Spears)

A few thoughts to jump start your Tuesday morning:

Over almost before both teams broke into a good sweat. That’s pretty much the story of the last three years of the Florida-Georgia rivalry, if you really want to call it that. There is no doubt Florida hates Georgia and vice versa, but to call it a rivalry, the games have to be competitive. The last time the Gators had a competitive game with the Bulldogs was the COVID year of 2020 when Kyle Trask lit up Georgia for 474 passing yards and four TDPs in a 44-28 Florida win. The rivalry has turned into nothing more than a tuneup for the final stretch of the regular season for Georgia and the crash and burn finish for the Gators.

Since Florida's last win over Georgia, the Bulldogs are a combined 48-3 with national championships in 2021-22. The Gators are 21-24. In the games following Georgia starting with 2021, the Gators are a combined 4-10.

 Since 2021 Georgia has cruised to three easy wins by a combined 119-47 margin, games that were blowouts before halftime. In 2021, Dan Mullen’s final year on the job at UF, Anthony Richardson got his first collegiate start. After a 0-0 first quarter, Georgia struck for 28 second quarter points, 14 of them after a Richardson fumble at the UF 11 and a pick six. Georgia won the game 34-7, Florida’s second straight loss in a 6-7 season in which the Gators went 2-5 down the stretch.

In Billy Napier’s two years on the job, Georgia has racked up leads of 28-3 and 26-7 at the half en route to wins of 42-20 in 2022 and 43-20 last year. In both games, Georgia has commanded the line of scrimmage, particularly early on, putting the Gators at a distinct disadvantage. It's hard to come back on really good teams when you get whomped consistently up front.

Take the last two games, for example. The Gators have run for a collective 209 yards and given up eight sacks. Georgia on the other hand has run for 410 yards and hasn’t allowed a single sack.

For the Gators (4-3, 2-2 SEC) to have even a puncher’s chance against the 2nd-ranked Bulldogs (7-1, 4-1 SEC) Saturday in Jacksonville (3:30 p.m., ABC), they have to at least hold their own at the line of scrimmage. If there is a measure of truth in the stats then this seems to be Florida’s best shot at a truly competitive game with Georgia since the 24-17 loss to the Bulldogs in 2019 and the 2020 win.

In eight games, Georgia has yet to run for more than 169 yards. The Bulldogs average only 130.29 yards per game on the ground, which ranks 14th in the 16-team SEC and 95th nationally. To Georgia’s credit, the Bulldogs have given up only eight sacks but Carson Beck has been pressured enough that he’s thrown eight interceptions. He threw only six in 14 games a year ago.

In Florida’s seven games, the Gators allow 164.29 rushing yards per game, but they’ve registered 12 sacks in the last four games. The Gators have given up only 56 points in the last three games after allowing 109 in the first four.

Can the Gators put a dent in the Georgia defense? Can they run the football on a team that allows only 107.14 yards per game and 3.35 per carry? Can they protect DJ Lagway well enough to prevent an onslaught of sacks like we saw against Texas when the Bulldogs got to the quarterback seven times for -59 yards in losses?  Georgia allows only 16.9 points per game, but the Bulldogs gave up 41 to Alabama and 31 to Mississippi State.

Since a low point of 52 rushing yards against Texas A&M the Gators have averaged 172.75 rushing yards per game and a respectable 4.54 yards per carry. The Gators have allowed only 10 sacks all year.

Georgia is a 17-point favorite so no one is expecting the Gators to win this game, but can they avoid the first half onslaught, keep it competitive through three quarters and then make the Bulldogs sweat it out in the fourth quarter? That alone would be a major improvement over the last three years, but if it’s close after three maybe, just maybe the Gators can hang with Georgia to the bitter end.

Stranger things have happened.

SEC FOOTBALL

No. 14 Alabama (6-2, 3-2 SEC): Alabama has to run the table to make the College Football Playoff. The game at No. 16 LSU on November 9 will be the biggest obstacle. The last three are D1AA Mercer, at Oklahoma and Auburn.

Arkansas (5-3, 3-2 SEC): The Razorbacks are a game away from bowl eligible. The last four are No. 19 Ole Miss, at No. 6 Texas, non-conference Louisiana Tech and at No. 25 Missouri. Bowl eligible and Sam Pittman will be gainfully employed at Arkansas next year.

Auburn (3-5, 1-4 SEC): Auburn needs three wins to get bowl eligible and reduce the heat in Hugh Freeze. Last four games are Vanderbilt, Louisiana-Monroe, No. 10 Texas A&M and at No. 14 Alabama.

No. 2 Georgia (7-1, 4-1 SEC): Everybody is penciling in Georgia to the SEC Championship Game and the CFP, but the next three games are difficult -- Florida in Jacksonville, at No. 19 Ole Miss and No. 7 Tennessee. Georgia makes the playoff at 10-2.

Kentucky (3-5, 1-5 SEC): The Wildcats have to go 3-1 in the last four games to not only become bowl eligible but to avoid their first losing season since 2015. The last four are at No. 7 Tennessee, D1AA Murray State, at No. 6  Texas and non-conference Louisville.

No. 16 LSU (6-2, 3-1 SEC): Another loss and the Tigers can forget making the playoff. The last four games are No. 14 Alabama, at Florida, Vanderbilt and Oklahoma.

Mississippi State (1-7, 0-5 SEC): The Bulldogs play the only winnable game remaining on their schedule (UMass) Saturday. They close at No. 7 Tennessee, No. 25 Missouri and at No. 19 Ole Miss.

No. 25 Missouri (6-2, 2-2 SEC): The Tigers were exposed by Alabama. Even if they run the table (Oklahoma, at South Carolina, at Mississippi State, Arkansas) it might not be enough to make the playoff.

Oklahoma (4-4, 1-4 SEC): The Sooners should win Saturday against D1AA Maine. They won’t be favored in the last three at No. 25 Missouri, No. 14 Alabama and at No. 16 LSU.

No. 19 Ole Miss (6-2, 2-2 SEC): The Rebels will make the playoff if they go 4-0, but it won’t be easy at Arkansas, No. 2 Georgia, at Florida and Mississippi State.

South Carolina (4-3, 2-3 SEC): For the Gamecocks to become bowl eligible, their defense is going to have to pull out a couple of wins in the last five. The Gamecocks face No. 10 Texas A&M, at Vanderbilt, No. 25 Missouri, D1AA Wofford and at No. 11 Clemson.

No. 7 Tennessee (6-1, 3-1 SEC): The Vols have a good chance to make the playoff and possibly win a share of the SEC regular season with a final five games of Kentucky, Mississippi State, at No. 2 Georgia, non-conference UTEP and at Vanderbilt.

No. 6 Texas (7-1, 3-1 SEC): The Longhorns can go 3-1 and still make the playoff. The last four are Florida, at Arkansas, Kentucky and at No. 10 Texas A&M.

No. 10 Texas A&M (7-1, 5-0 SEC): The Aggies seem to be mortal locks for the playoff and they have a reasonably good chance to finish with the only unbeaten SEC record in the regular season. The last four games are at South Carolina, New Mexico State, at Auburn and No. 6 Texas.

Vanderbilt (5-3, 2-3 SEC): This has been a surprising and improbable season for the Commodores, who need to find a win in the last four to get to a bowl game. The schedule is at Auburn, South Carolina, at No. 16 LSU and No. 7 Tennessee.

COUNTDOWN TO FIRING DAY: WEEK 7

Extinct Species List

Mike Bloomgren, Rice: Firing is such a tacky thing for a school where the average freshman has a 1550 on his SAT. But, after a 24-52 record they finally pulled the plug. You’d have to be crazy to take this job.

Mike Houston, East Carolina: Houston won everywhere else he coached except the one place that had everything needed to win big, so the powers that be made him walk the plank. LSU offensive coordinator Joe Sloan could be the guy here.

Will Hall, Southern Miss: Believe it or not, from 1947-63 only four teams in the country won more games than Southern Miss. They long for the good old days in Hattiesburg. Someone needs to write a big check to get the program back on good footing.

On Life Support

Billy Napier, Florida: If the Gators can avoid getting blown out in the next four games and finish 5-7, Billy just may survive even with a third straight losing record. Having a talent like DJ Lagway who is just a freshman is a very nice get out of jail free card.

Stan Drayton, Temple: Just when Drayton and Shirley Temple got everybody’s hopes up with a win over Tulsa, they lost to East Carolina. Three of the last four are very losable for a team that is 2-6 and a coach who is 8-23 in three years.

Sonny Cumbie, Louisiana Tech: If Cumbie survives it’s because the Bulldogs should be 6-1 right now instead of 3-4. They’ve lost three one-possession games, a good excuse for a school that doesn’t have cash to burn.

Joe Moorhead, Akron: The Zips beat Eastern Michigan last week. Big shock to the 4,277 in attendance. The Zips are 2-6 and none of the remaining games seem winnable.

Mike Neu, Ball State: The Cardinals are 3-5 with a shocking win over the same Northern Illinois team that beat Notre Dame in South Bend. A couple more wins and Neu might survive.

Endangered Species List

Dave Aranda, Baylor: Baylor has won its last two games, moved to 4-4 and has a chance to go 7-5 or even 8-4. Now, 6-6 or a losing record and he’s back On Life Support.

Hugh Freeze, Auburn: Just when everyone thought Hugh had one foot out the door he beat Kentucky. If he can beat Vandy this week and Louisiana-Monroe in three weeks, safe to say he will be back despite Paul Finebaum’s objections.

Jim McElwain, Central Michigan: Old Yeller is 3-5 with four very losable games remaining. They don’t like firing coaches in the Big MAC conference, but Old Yeller is pushing the envelope.

Clay Helton, Georgia Southern: Obviously, he couldn’t stand prosperity. He went off the Endangered Species List with a 3-game win streak that included a bushwhack of James Madison only to get his doors blown off by Old Dominion. He’s 5-3 and needs to win two more games or he’s a goner.

Don Brown, UMass: He’s 2-6 with two wins over D1AA teams. What a concept, D1AA. UMass was once a D1AA power, but they can’t balance the books unless they play a lot of paycheck games. You can get more paycheck games if you’re not a D1AA team.

Mike Norvell, Florida State: From the penthouse to the outhouse. The Seminoles are 1-7 and D1AA Charleston Southern is the only winnable game left. There is a juicy rumor that if Norvell could get another job, FSU would waive the buyout.

Trent Dilfer, UAB: The Blazers have lost six straight. The only thing keeping Dilfer from moving to On Life Support is they don’t have any money to buy him out.

ONE FINAL PITHY THOUGHT: We are only days away from a November to remember, a month in which all hell threatens to break loose in college football. Somewhere up above, Mike Slive can’t wipe the grin off his face. Somewhere in Birmingham, Greg Sankey wears a rather smug “I told you so” look that breaks out any time someone mentions the names Kevin Warren (former Big Ten commish), George Kliavkoff (former commish of the now defunct Pac-12) and Little Jimmy Phillips, who is praying the ACC can somehow get two teams into the College Football Playoff.

Slive proposed expanding the playoff from four teams a couple of years before his death. He was told expansion would diminish the regular season. Sankey called for a 12-team playoff in 2021, which led Warren, Kliavkoff and Phillips going into apoplectic shock. Warren left the Big Ten before he was run out. Kliavkoff ran the Pac-12 out of existence. Phillips has a conference that has its two most successful teams since 2009 threatening to secede.

All the cries that an expanded playoff would benefit only the SEC have been shot down. The same is true for predictions that an expanded playoff would mean some team with two losses could win the national championshp so the regular season would be rendered almost meaningless.

Well, none of that has happened. Instead we’ve got at least 16 teams from power conferences still in playoff contention and no less than nine with a shot at the berth that will go to the highest ranked team from the Group of Five.

The last two weekends of November and the conference championship games could be utterly chaotic. Beautiful, isn’t it?