For the Gators to beat Kentucky, the defense has to show up big

Linebacker Jaden Robinson (29) will need to have a big game against Kentucky (Gator Bait Photo by Chris Spears)

A few thoughts to jump start your Wednesday morning:

Three weeks ago the Kentucky Wildcats (3-3, 1-3 SEC) offset a rather mediocre offensive effort with one of the better defensive stands of the season when they held Ole Miss to 353 yards and 17 points. The Rebels were ranked sixth at the time, leading the country in total offense and scoring. In previous games, Ole Miss made it look so easy. Against Kentucky the Rebels struggled in every phase.

Kentucky wasn’t exactly an offensive juggernaut, managing just 336 yards and 20 points, but it was enough to score one of the bigger upsets of the 2024 season. With the exception of wins over a Sun Belt bottom feeder (Southern Miss) and a rather weak team from the MAC (Ohio U), the Wildcats have stunk it up when they have the football. In their four Southeastern Conference games, Kentucky has scored 51 points (12.75 per game) while averaging 281.25 yards of offense. The Wildcats have averaged 141.5 yards on the ground, 139.75 through the air.

Formidable they aren’t. The same can’t be said about their defense, however. The 353 yards gained by Ole Miss are the most Kentucky has allowed this season. Overall, the Wildcats rank third in the SEC (251.5 yards per game), fourth nationally. Against the run Kentucky allows only 3.06 yards per carry. Opponents have managed 8.0 yards per pass attempt, but they’ve thrown as many interceptions (5) as touchdown passes.

This is the defense Florida freshman QB DJ Lagway will have to face Saturday (7:45 p.m., SEC Network) at The Swamp. If Carson Beck (Georgia, 160 yards and 0 touchdowns) and Jaxson Dart (Ole Miss, 285 yards and 1 TD) couldn’t light up the Wildcats, then we really can’t expect Lagway to put on a clinic throwing the ball. Nor can we expect the Gators to pound away even if Montrell Johnson Jr. is healthy enough to carry the ball his usual 10-15 times per game.

So, we have to ask if Florida’s defense can carry the load and stiff the Wildcats in the same way they held Tennessee’s highly regarded offense to 312 yards? If the last two games are a clear indicator of things to come, then the answer is yes. Florida held UCF’s run-first offense to 273 yards (105 on the ground) and 13 points, then followed it up by allowing only one sustained drive and only 4-15 on third down against then 8th-ranked Tennessee. In the last two games, the Gators have sacked the quarterbacks eight times for -56 yards.

Kentucky’s offense isn’t nearly as challenging as the one the Gators faced last weekend in Knoxville, but the Wildcats did move the ball well enough to outscore Ole Miss in Oxford. As of Tuesday night, Kentucky is a 1-point favorite in which the over/under is 42.5 points.

Obviously, either the people in Las Vegas expect this to be a defensive slugfest or else a game in which neither offense is expected to move the football and score with any kind of consistency.

If there is an offensive advantage for the Gators it is the fact that Lagway has what has turned into an exceptional receiving corps led by Elijhah Badger (19-376, 2 TDs), Chimere Dike (19-353, 2 TDs), Tre Wilson (18-226, 1 TD) and Hayden Hansen (9-145, 1 TD). Can Florida’s offensive line give Lagway enough time to find open receivers? He still hasn’t learned all the nuances of reading blitzes so he’s going to need a great game from his linemen.

But, no matter how well the linemen protect Lagway, the defense is still going to have to come up big. The Wildcats have issues protecting the quarterback, having given up five sacks in a loss to South Carolina, six in the win over Ole Miss. The Gators already have 16 sacks through six games. They had only 22 in 12 games in 2023.

Three keys to Florida’s defense getting the job done: (1) Hold Kentucky to 125 or fewer yards on the ground; (2) keep QB Brock Vandagriff confined to the pocket so that Tyreak Sapp and George Gumbs can apply the pressure; and (3) linebackers Pup Howard, Jaden Robinson and Shemar James can’t miss tackles.

SEC FOOTBALL

No. 7 Alabama (5-1, 2-1 SEC): Saturday’s game at Tennessee is the first of three straight against ranked opponents for Alabama. With one SEC loss for each opponent, it could be considered a 3-week playoff elimination tournament. Saturday: at No. 11 Tennessee (5-1, 2-1 SEC)

Arkansas (4-2, 2-1 SEC): Can Arkansas spring a second straight upset over a highly ranked team? The Hogs already own a win over Tennessee when the Vols were ranked 6th in the nation. Saturday they get No. 8 LSU. Saturday: No. 8 LSU (5-1, 2-1 SEC)

Auburn (2-4, 0-3 SEC): For Auburn to spring the upset against Missouri Saturday, the Tigers are going to have to protect the football. They have turned it over 15 times this season, worst in the SEC and 130th out of 132 teams nationally. Saturday: at No. 19 Missouri (5-1, 1-1 SEC)

No. 5 Georgia (5-1, 3-1 SEC): Linebacker Smael Mondon (foot injury) is expected to miss Saturday’s showdown in Austin with No. 1 Texas. It will be the third straight game Mondon has missed. He was Georgia’s second leading tackler a season ago. Saturday: at No. 1 Texas (6-0, 2-0 SEC)

Kentucky (3-3, 1-3 SEC): When he signed with Georgia out of high school, Brock Vandagriff was a 5-star quarterback. Since transferring to Kentucky, they’re wondering if he simply hasn’t shaken off the rust of sitting three years at UGa or maybe he was highly overrated to begin with. So far, Vandagriff has thrown for 951 yards (7.2 per attempt) and five TDs (2 picks) while running for 93 yards on 60 carries. Kentucky’s offense ranks next to last in the SEC (321.7 yards per game) and 116th nationally. Saturday: at FLORIDA (3-3, 1-2 SEC)

No. 8 LSU (5-1, 2-0 SEC): LSU’s defense, which ranks 14th in the SEC, will have to contend with a Bobby Petrino offense Saturday that ranks third in the league. The Hogs run the ball 41times per game (199.5 yards) and throw it 25 times a game (285.3 yards).  Saturday: at Arkansas (4-2, 2-1 SEC)

Mississippi State (1-5, 0-3 SEC): It is old news, but wide receiver Creed Whittemore is taking a redshirt and opting out the rest of the season. Saturday: No. 14 Texas A&M (5-1, 3-0 SEC)

No. 19 Missouri (5-1, 1-1 SEC): Defensive end Joe Moore and linebacker Khalil Jacobs have suffered season-ending injuries. Jacobs had two sacks and 14 tackles.  Saturday: Auburn (2-4, 0-3 SEC)

Oklahoma (4-2, 1-2 SEC): Oklahoma has had discussions with Jackson Arnold about taking a redshirt this season. For now, at least, the Sooners will stick with true freshman Michael Hawkins Jr. Saturday: South Carolina (3-3, 1-3 SEC)

No. 18 Ole Miss (5-2, 1-2 SEC): Oklahoma transfer defensive back Key Lawrence has opted out the rest of the season, intending to redshirt and transfer again. Lawrence was thought to be a big time transfer after starting three years at Oklahoma but in four games at Ole Miss he had one tackle. Saturday: Open

South Carolina (3-3, 1-3 SEC): Georgia Tech transfer Kyle Kennard leads the SEC with 7.5 sacks. That ranks fourth nationally … The Gamecocks rank third in the SEC with 19 sacks and dead last in both the SEC and nation in sacks allowed with 26. Saturday: at Oklahoma (4-2, 1-2 SEC)

No. 11 Tennessee (5-1, 2-1 SEC): For the Vols to beat Alabama and remain in playoff contention, they’ll have to make the Crimson Tide one-dimensional by stuffing the run. Tennessee ranks second in the SEC and fifth nationally against the run, giving up just 35.5 yards per game and 2.24 per carry. Saturday: No. 7 Alabama (5-1, 2-1 SEC)

No. 1 Texas (6-0, 2-0 SEC): The Longhorns rank second nationally in pass defense, allowing just 126 yards per game and only 4.6 per pass attempt. The Longhornd have allowed only one TDP while picking off seven passes. Their task Saturday will be to shut down Georgia’s Carson Beck, who averages 303 passing yards per game and has thrown for 15 touchdowns. Saturday: No. 5 Georgia (5-1, 2-1 SEC)

No. 14 Texas A&M (5-1, 3-0 SEC): Through six games, no team has thrown for 300 yards on the Aggies and no team has run for 200. Saturday: at Mississippi State (1-5, 0-3 SEC)

Vanderbilt (4-2, 2-1 SEC): Saturday’s non-conference matchup with Ball State is a get well game for both the Vandy offense and defense. The offense ranks 14th in the SEC (353 yards per game) and the defense ranks 12th (342 per game). Despite the poor numbers, the Commodores should be within a game of bowl eligibility after Ball State. Saturday: Ball State (2-4)

ONE FINAL PITHY THOUGHT: Kirby Smart has apologized for giving a forearm shove to Mississippi State quarterback Michael Van Buren in last Saturday’s game in Athens. Smart said Monday that he has reached out to both Van Buren and Mississippi State head coach Jeff Lebby. He even insists he was trying to get the attention of defensive coordinator Glen Schumann and says he doesn’t even remember the play.

Do you believe him? If you do you probably still believe a bunny rabbit shows up at Easter leaving you colored eggs and chocolate rabbits in a basket.

SEC commissioner Greg Sankey, usually a standup guy when it comes to matters like this, says the zebras whiffed on the play, that a personal foul penalty was merited. He’s right about a missed penalty. What Sankey isn’t right about is no punishment for Kirby.

Sankey must believe that because Georgia has won two national championships since 2017 and is a contender to make it three in the last four years that Kirby Smart is untouchable. Is there a team in the country that has had more players arrested in the past five years? Some of the arrests are the type that deserve a slap on the wrist. Others are far more serious involving street racing, DUI, underage drinking, leaving the scene of an accident and tragic deaths of a player and a recruiting staffer while driving a car rented by the football program for a national championship celebration.

This stuff happens far too frequently and each time Kirby says the same old, same old, as if we’re supposed to believe he’s actually remorseful that his players keep getting arrested. If he truly regretted what’s going on, he would be kicking players off the team left and right, but does it happen? Of course not.

If Greg Sankey expects the rest of the college football world to believe that he’s fair minded and even handed in the way he handles discipline within the Southeastern Conference, then he needs to send a shot across Kirby Smart and Georgia’s bow. Suspend him for a game and let him know that the next time a Georgia player is arrested without adequate punishment that he (Smart) will serve a lengthier suspension.