For the UF offense, it was an October to forget

Photo by Chris Spears, GatorBait Media.

Just as the clock struck midnight turning Cinderella’s carriage into a pumpkin, the calendar turned a page on the Florida Gators. From a September to remember to an October they would rather forget, the Gators are no longer the media darlings they were when they hosed then 4th-ranked Ole Miss 52-28 on the final Saturday of September. From 4-0 and a No. 7 national ranking to 5-3, barely clinging to the last spot in the Associated Press top 25, the Gators nosedived their way through October, their only win a 27-24 shocker in Austin over Texas, which just two weeks before had been ranked No. 1 in the nation.

The month-to-month contrast is startling. In the four September wins, the Gators averaged 260 yards per game on the ground, averaging 5.87 yards per carry and scoring 18 touchdowns. Jadan Baugh, on everyone’s Heisman Trophy list in September, ran for 600 yards and 11 touchdowns while averaging 7.22 yards per carry. Against Ole Miss, Baugh had 142 of Florida’s 302 rushing yards and three touchdowns. His draft stock shot through the roof.

In the four games of October, Baugh ran for 201 yards and two touchdowns, went from Heisman candidate to a tough luck guy who every opposing defense targets, knowing the Florida offensive line can’t get him to the second level. Baugh had 201 yards on 69 carries for two touchdowns in the month of October. That is 2.91 per carry.

The running game that was so devastating in September accounted for only 364 yards on 137 carries, a dismal 2.65 yards per attempt. The Gators ran for three touchdowns in October.

In the four games of September, Aaron Philo averaged an astounding 10.5 yards per pass attempt while throwing for seven touchdowns. Injured against South Carolina, he missed the Texas game altogether and played only the first quarter-and-a-half against Georgia. He averaged 6.5 yards per pass attempt with two touchdowns and two picks in October.

The plunge in passing numbers for Philo and for Tramell Jones, who started the Texas game and finished the Georgia game, can be attributed to a couple of things. No Vernell Brown III has taken away Florida’s most explosive player on the perimeter, not to mention his value as a punt returner capable of dramatically altering field position. Without the threat of Brown to stretch the field, opposing safeties have crowded the box, reducing the run threat.

Brown’s impact cannot be under-estimated, but even if he had been healthy and on the field, someone would have had to block. Florida’s offensive line has gone from the surprise of the SEC in September to the weak link it was predicted to be in all the preseason magazines and prognostications. False starts and holding calls have become routine occurrences. The Gators are dead last in the SEC in penalties (7.9 for 75 yards per game) and they rank No. 126 nationally. Not all the penalties can be laid at the feet of the O-line, but they are responsible for a rather hefty percentage of the flags.

In the first three games of October, only center Harrison Moore (74.4 percent against South Carolina) had a game that graded out better than 70 percent. In that South Carolina game, tackles Bryce Lovett (42.1 percent) and Emeka Ugorgi (33.4 percent) were awful both in the run game and in pass protection. Ugorgi gave up four QB pressures and two sacks.

Saturday against Georgia, the Gators allowed four sacks and 11 tackles for loss, but not all of those can be pinned against the O-line, which was overwhelmed by a high percentage of Georgia blitzes. Still, the run game produced only 54 yards on 28 carries (1.9 per attempt).

The Gators have four remaining games. At 5-3 (3-3 SEC), they are favored by a touchdown to beat Oklahoma Saturday. They will probably be underdogs at Kentucky and favored to beat both Vanderbilt and Florida State in the final two games. The potential is there for eight or even nine wins in the regular season, which would be a serious accomplishment for Jon Sumrall after last year’s 4-8 record under Billy Napier.

But the Gators won’t get to eight or nine wins without the offensive line rediscovering the success it had in September.

Associated Press top 25 (SEC teams bold face): 1. Miami 8-0; 2. Georgia 7-1; 3. Utah 8-0; 4. Notre Dame 7-1; 5. UCLA 8-0; 6. Indiana 8-1; 7. BYU 7-1; 8. Kentucky 7-1; 9. Alabama 6-2; 10. Texas 6-2; 11. Ohio State 6-2; 12. Ole Miss 6-2; 13. Texas Tech 7-1; 14. Wake Forest 7-1; 15. LSU 6-2; 16. Tennessee 6-2; 17. Houston 6-2; 18. Southern Cal 7-2; 19. Missouri 6-2; 20. Boise State 7-1; 21. Iowa 6-2; 22. New Mexico 7-1; 23. South Carolina 5-3; 24. Arizona 6-2; 25. FLORIDA 5-3

AFCA Coaches top 25: 1. Miami 8-0; 2. Georgia 7-1; 3. Indiana 8-1; 4. Utah 8-0; 5. UCLA 8-0; 6. Notre Dame 7-1; 7. Kentucky 7-1; 8. BYU 7-1; 9. Alabama 6-2; 10. Ohio State 6-2; 11. Texas 6-2; 12. Ole Miss 6-2; 13. Texas Tech 7-1; 14. Wake Forest 7-1; 15. LSU 6-2; 16. Tennessee 6-2; 17. Southern Cal 7-2; 18. Houston 6-2; 19. Missouri 6-2; 20. Iowa 6-2; 21. Boise State 7-1; 22. Arizona 6-2; 23. Northwestern 6-2; 24. SMU 6-2; 25. New Mexico 7-1

AROUND THE SEC

No. 9 Alabama (6-2, 4-2 SEC): LSU is a playoff elimination game for Alabama. Lose and it’s the 11th loss in three years for Kalen DeBoer and nobody on the planet needs a win in a big game more than he does. Saturday: at No. 15 LSU (6-2, 3-2 SEC)

Arkansas (3-5, 1-4 SEC): The Hogs ran for only 59 yards against Missouri. It was their third game of the season when they failed to reach at least 100 yards. Saturday: at Auburn (4-4, 2-4 SEC), 12:45 p.m. SEC Network

Auburn (4-4, 2-4 SEC): The Tigers get somewhat of a break Saturday. They can’t protect the passer (34 sacks allowed this year) and Arkansas can’t rush the passer (just 10 sacks). Saturday: Arkansas (3-5, 1-4 SEC), 12:45 p.m. SEC Network

No. 2 Georgia (7-1, 5-1 SEC): The Bulldogs held Florida to 54 rushing yards and just 1.9 yards per carry. Georgia ranks ninth nationally against the run, allowing opponents just 86 yards per game and 2.72 yards per carry. Saturday: at No. 12 Ole Miss (6-2, 4-2 SEC), 7:30 p.m., ABC

No. 8 Kentucky (7-1, 5-1 SEC): The Wildcats moved up one spot in the AP poll to No. 8 nationally, which is their highest ranking since 2022 when they were No. 7 after four games. Prior to that, it was 1977 the last time the Wildcats secured such a high ranking. Saturday: at No. 16 Tennessee (6-2, 3-2 SEC), 6:15 p.m., ESPN

No. 15 LSU (6-2, 3-2 SEC): The Tigers have the No. 4 defense in the country (258.1 yards per game allowed). They rank seventh against the run and 13th against the pass. The Tigers have allowed only four touchdown passes all year. Saturday: No. 9 Alabama (6-2, 4-2 SEC), 3:30 p.m., ABC

Mississippi State (4-4, 2-4 SEC): The Bulldogs travel to Vanderbilt Saturday where they are likely to start AJ Swann at quarterback in place of injured Kamario Taylor. Swann’s journey to Mississippi State has taken him from Vanderbilt (2022-23) to LSU (2024) and to Appalachian State (2025) prior to this season. Saturday: at Vanderbilt (3-5, 0-5 SEC), 4:15 p.m. SEC Network

No. 19 Missouri (6-2, 3-2 SEC): Jamal Roberts ran for 138 yards and a TD as Mizzou ran for 211 yards against Arkansas. Seeing his first action of the season after recovering from an offseason gunshot wound, Ahmad Hardy carried three times for 42 yards including a 37-yard run. Saturday: No. 10 Texas (6-2, 3-2 SEC), 12 noon, ESPN

Oklahoma (4-4, 2-3 SEC): The Sooners run for a little more than 106 yards per game and have only scored three touchdowns this season on the ground, which is dead last in Division I. The Sooners are 111th nationally in total offense (336.9 yards per game). Saturday: at No. 25 FLORIDA (5-3, 3-3 SEC), 7:45 p.m. SEC Network

No. 12 Ole Miss (6-2, 4-2 SEC): No Kewan Lacy, no problem. The Rebels still ran for 224 yards on Auburn with freshman Shekai Mills-Knight leading the way with 16 carries for 71 yards and a touchdown. Prior to Auburn, Mills-Knight had four carries for 42 yards. Saturday: No. 2 Georgia (7-1, 5-1 SEC), 7:30 p.m., ABC

No. 23 South Carolina (5-3, 3-3 SEC): The Gamecocks have won their last three games behind a red hot LaNorris Sellers. In the win over Oklahoma Saturday, Sellers threw for 301 yards and a TD plus ran for 96 yards and two scores. For the season he has thrown for 16 touchdowns and rushed for six more. Saturday: Texas A&M (4-4, 1-4 SEC), 3 p.m., ESPN

No. 16 Tennessee (6-2, 3-2 SEC): The Vols have yet to allow a team to gain more than 356 yards against their defense. They lead the nation with 35 sacks and they have an SEC best 66 tackles for loss. The Vols are 6.5-point favorites to take down Kentucky Saturday. Saturday: No. 8 Kentucky (7-1, 5-1 SEC), 6:15 p.m., ESPN

No. 10 Texas (6-2, 3-2 SEC): The Longhorns are a surprising 3.5-point favorite for Saturday’s game at Missouri where the Tigers are 23-3 in the last four years. Saturday: at No. 19 Missouri (6-2, 3-2 SEC), 12 noon, ESPN

Texas A&M (4-4, 1-4 SEC): The Aggies defensive struggles can be traced to their lack of a pass rush. The Aggies have eight sacks all year, dead last in Division I. Despite their inability to rush quarterbacks, Texas A&M ranks 30th nationally in total defense (315 yards per game). Saturday: at No. 23 South Carolina (5-3, 3-3 SEC), 3 p.m., ESPN

Vanderbilt (3-5, 0-5 SEC): The Commodores are dead last in the SEC and No. 130 nationally in turnover margin. They coughed up the football 14 times and have forced seven turnovers. Saturday: at Mississippi State (4-4, 2-4 SEC), 4:15 p.m. SEC Network

COUNTDOWN TO FIRING DAY: NOVEMBER 2, EDITION

EXTINCT SPECIES LIST

Mike Norvell, Florida State: Seminole faithful will be organizing car washes and bake sales to contribute to the estimated $47 million hard cash needed to fire Norvell. Also, it will take a few million more to buy out the assistants and staffers. The cost of hiring a new coach points to one person and one person only — Jimbo Fisher. He won the 2013 national championship coaching the Seminoles, requires no buyout or moving costs since he already lives in Tallahassee, and because Texas A&M paid him $77 million to go away he will work cheap. FSU will talk big names, but in the end it’s going to be Jimbo. Rick Stockstill, a former FSU QB and head coach at Middle Tennessee State, will be the interim.

Dave Aranda, Baylor: The Bears were so distraught over the firing of Aranda that they played their best game of the season in whomping UCF at the Bounce House. Jeff Traylor (UT-San Antonio), Willie Fritz (Houston), Jason Eck (New Mexico) and Shannon Dawson (Miami OC) should emerge as the top candidates. Smart money is on Traylor.

Dave Doeren, North Carolina State: The deal to hire Philip Rivers is all but done. It helps that his son is a stud high school QB already committed to the Wolfpack.

Mike Locksley, Maryland: Brian Kelly wants the job. He would bring instant credibility and he is the highest profile coach currently available.

Phil Longo, Sam Houston: Quick trigger. He was 3-17 in his second season but he inherited a mess at a school seriously lacking resources.

ON LIFE SUPPORT

Greg Schiano, Rutgers: He almost beat Michigan but probably won’t win another game. If he stays it’s because they can’t cover the $20 million buyout.

Deion Sanders, Colorado: The Buffs shocked K-State Saturday. That win and a $26 million buyout probably keep him around another year.

Joe Moorhead, Akron: The Zips are 1-7 and there isn’t a winnable game in the last four. If he survives it’s because they have no money.

Kyle Whittingham, Michigan: The new AD didn’t hire Whittingham and could succumb to boosters who want a higher profile coach. The buyout is $25 million but money is no object for Michigan.

ENDANGERED SPECIES LIST

Steve Sarkisian, Texas: The Longhorns are 6-2 and need to make the College Football Playoff. They have the talent to do it, but do they have the head coaching? His buyout is more than $50 million, a day’s interest for some of the oil gozillionaire boosters.

Brent Venables, Oklahoma: He got a six-year contract extension earlier in the year. Now they’re unhappy about it. The buyout is nearly $52 million but that isn’t an issue. What may save him is he’s a Bob Stoops legacy. He probably gets one more year unless the Sooners go totally in the tank.

Kalen DeBoer, Alabama: A loss to LSU this weekend seems likely. Is that enough to fire him? AD Greg Byrne will be under extreme pressure if Bama misses the playoff. He already has 10 losses in three years. Nick never did that.

Tony Elliott, Virginia: Winning 11 games last year buys him another year, but his seat will be very hot.

Tim Albin, Charlotte: Google him. He’s won everywhere he’s ever been. That doesn’t explain 2-18 in his first two seasons as Charlotte’s head ball coach. They have no money and they play in a 15,000-seat stadium.

Pat Narduzzi, Pittsburgh: He’s 85-64 and gets the Panthers December vacations to such exotic locales as Detroit for bowl games. How long before the luster of that 2021 ACC championship wears off?

Bill O’Brien, Boston College: He’s a surprising 4-4 this year. No one expected that. If he’s smart he gets another job. BC is a dead end.