Gator basketball: The quest for a national title begins tonight

Todd Golden and the Gators hope to go on a 9-0 run starting tonight (Photo by Chris Spears)

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From a purely mathematical standpoint, the odds don’t favor the Florida Gators winning the NCAA championship.

“Even the best team in America has a less than 10 percent chance to win it going into the tournament,” Florida coach Todd Golden said Wednesday before the Gators left for Nashville to play in the Southeastern Conference Tournament in Nashville. “That’s just the math behind it.”

The math doesn’t begin to tell how difficult it is to be the last team standing when “One Shining Moment” is played, officially bringing the college basketball season to conclusion. Just getting to the championship game is a feat. The pressure is enormous. Win and advance. Lose and the season comes crashing to a halt. Way too often the team with the most talent and the best record succumbs to the pressure, eliminated from the 3-weekend chase for a championship.

As Golden alluded, the math says the best team has just a one in ten chance. Golden has reason to believe this year’s Florida team has what it takes to emerge as the national champ. The Gators are tall, talented and they have serious depth – five guards, five big guys. There isn’t a team in the country with as many quality parts as the Gators.

“I think we can win a national championship,” Golden said while admitting “It’s definitely not going to be easy.”

Because they have a 2-day bye in the SEC Tournament, the 4th-ranked Gators play for the first time tonight (7 p.m., SEC Network) against Missouri (22-10). Back on January 14, the Tigers built a 19-point lead in the first half then held on for dear life as Florida rallied furiously only to fall, 83-82. Beat Missouri and the Gators advance.

Lose and they get a mulligan.

A loss at the SEC Tournament might cost the Gators a No. 1 seed, but it won’t derail the championship aspirations. Win all three games at the SEC Tournament and the Gators could wind up as the No. 1 overall seed. However, once in the NCAA Tournament there are no more do overs. Lose in Nashville and you play again. Lose in the NCAA Tournament and the curtain comes crashing down on the season.

Win six games after Nashville and you’re the national champ.

“Our goal is to win nine in a row, right now,” Golden said. “To be honest, whatever happens in Nashville, we’re not going to let it negatively affect us. If we win three in a row we’ll have positive momentum. But just like Alabama last year, if we lose our first game, our goal of winning a national championship will still be in front of us. Just try to take it day by day, game by game, see what the opportunities are and the variables are, but we are trying to gear up and play realty well this weekend and carry it to next year, as well.”

Anticipated starting lineups

No. 4 FLORIDA (27-4): Alex Condon (6-11, 230, SO); Rueben Chinyelu (6-10, 255, SO); Will Richard (6-4, 206, SR); Alijah Martin (6-2, 195, GR); Walter Clayton Jr. (6-2, 195, SR)

No. 21 Missouri (22-10): Mark Mitchell (6-9, 230, JR); Josh Gray (7-0, 260, SR); Tamar Bates (6-4, 200, SR); Tony Perkins (6-4, 200, SR); Anthony Robinson (6-3, 180, SO)

SEC BASKETBALL

Thursday’s scores

Ole Miss (22-10) 83, Arkansas (20-13) 80

Texas (19-14) 94, No. 14 Texas A&M (22-10) 89, 2 OT

No. 21 Missouri (22-10) 85, Mississippi State (21-12) 73

No. 15 Kentucky (22-10) 85, Oklahoma (20-13) 84

Friday’s games

Ole Miss (22-10) vs. No. 3 Auburn (27-4)

Texas (19-14) vs. No. 8 Tennessee (25-6)

No. 21 Missouri (22-10) vs. No. 4 FLORIDA (27-4)

No. 15 Kentucky (22-10) vs. No. 5 Alabama (24-7)

SEC Bracket Busting

No. 5 Alabama (24-7): To get back to the No. 1 line, the Crimson Tide is going to have to win three in a row in Nashville, starting tonight against Kentucky. Alabama is No. 6 at both kenpom.com and the NCAA NET rankings. The Crimson Tide have 10 Quad 1 wins.

Arkansas (20-13): The Razorbacks should have walked away with a win against Ole Miss, but even so they’ll be dancing. They’re No. 39 in the NCAA NET rankings, No. 40 at kenpom.com. Lunardi and Jerry Palm have the Razorbacks on their No. 10 line.

No. 3 Auburn (27-4): Three wins in Nashville could get Auburn back to the overall No. 1 seed. The Tigers have more Quad 1 wins than anybody (15). They’re No. 2 in both the NCAA NET rankings and kenpom.com

No. 4 FLORIDA (27-4): The Gators get their chance to avenge the regular season loss to Mizzou in tonight’s quarterfinals. The Gators are No. 4 at both kenpom.com and the NCAA NET rankings. The Gators are 8-4 against Quad 1 opponents.

Georgia (20-12): The loss to Oklahoma Wednesday night won’t hurt the Bulldogs. They will hear their name called Sunday, probably on either the No. 9 (Lunardi) or No. 10 (Jerry Palm) line. Georgia is a No. 34 in the NCAA NET rankings despite only four Quad 1 wins.

No. 15 Kentucky (22-10): The Wildcats got their 12th Quad 1 win when Otega Oweh beat Oklahoma with his last second shot. The Wildcats are No. 12 in the NCAA NET rankings and No. 15 at kenpom.com. Lunardi has the Wildcats at No. 3, while Jerry Palm has them on his No. 4 line.

Mississippi State (21-12): Lunardi has the Bulldogs on the No. 8 line, which is about where they should be. The Bulldogs are 7-10 against Quad 1 opponents. They’re No. 32 in both the NCAA NET rankings and kenpom.com.

No. 15 Missouri (22-10): Lunardi has the Tigers on his No. 7 line, probably because the Tigers have a 6-10 record in Quad 1 games. They are No. 20 in the NCAA NET rankings, No. 17 at kenpom.com.

Oklahoma (20-13): The Sooners lost a last second heartbreaker to Kentucky, but they have a 7-11 Quad 1 record. They are a No. 9 for Jerry Palm, a No. 10 for Joe Lunardi. At No. 43 in the NCAA NET rankings and No. 37 kenpom.com, they are solidly in the NCAA Tournament.

Ole Miss (22-10): With its win over Arkansas, Lunardi moved the Rebels up to a No. 5 seed. The Rebels are No. 26 at kenpom.com, No. 27 in the NCAA NET rankings.

No. 8 Tennessee (25-6): The Vols are No. 5 in both the NCAA NET rankings and kenpom. If they win the SEC Tournament, a No. 1 seed isn’t out of the question. Right now, they’re a No. 2 for both Lunardi and Jerry Palm.

Texas (19-14): Lunardi has Texas as his last team in following the double overtime win over the Aggies. Will simply getting in the NCAA Tournament save Rodney Terry’s job? The Longhorns are No. 41 in the NCAA NET rankings and No. 44 at kenpom.com.

No. 14 Texas A&M (22-10): Losing to Texas probably means nothing more than a No. 4 seed. The Aggies are No. 17 in the NCAA NET rankings and No. 29 at kenpom.com.

Vanderbilt (20-12): Lunardi and Jerry Palm have the Commodores comfortably in. The Commodores are No. 48 in the NCAA NET rankings, No. 47 in kenpom.