Gator Football ‘26: This Is The Moment Of Truth When I Must Pick The Number.

Buddy’s Gators Prediction, Take #1 (Of Probably Several)

Every August, I do the same dance. I ignore the advanced metrics, I skip past the offensive line grades, and I go with the only instrument I actually trust: My gut. Which seems not to be shrinking these days.

My gut has also been wrong more often than the local weatherman in hurricane season, but it has also been remarkably consistent — which is more than you can say for most preseason polls.

So here’s the gut reading for Jon Sumrall’s first year in Gainesville: Seven wins, with an outside shot at eight. 

I know, I know — not exactly a bold prediction you’d see splashed across a highlight reel. But I’ve never been the guy chasing headlines with his predictions. I’m the guy who shows up seven months later and says “told you so” in a very quiet voice.

Here’s my reasoning, such as it is.

The offense is The Bomb — and I don’t mean the deep ball.

Buster Faulkner’s offense is going to be must-watch television, and it’s not because Aaron Philo is going to be slinging it around like he’s got something to prove — although he might. 

It’s because this team can beat you two different ways, and that’s the part that should scare SEC defensive coordinators into an extra film session. Philo’s got more weapons around him than some small nations have in their militia, but the one that keeps me up at night — in a good way — is Jadan Baugh. The man is a beast. Maybe not King Kong,  perhaps a Rhedosaurus. 

Analysts are throwing around 1,000-yard rushing seasons like beach balls, and for once, I’m inclined to agree with the analysts instead of just nodding politely and going back to my gut. 

I may have gotten over my skis a little when I predicted that Baugh would catch 66 passes this year — so I cut that back to to 50. Let’s go with that.

The defense: Improved, probably. By how much? Ask me in October.

Brad White’s defense should be better. I believe that the way I believe the sun’s coming up tomorrow — with total confidence and zero evidence I could show you right now. Until I actually watch this unit line up against SEC offenses for a few Saturdays, I’m not moving my number. 

That’s why I’m parked at 7.5’wins with an option to bump it to eight, but not before Week 7. Call it a “prove it to me first” clause. 

My gut has been burned by good defensive vibes in August that turned into fourth-quarter collapses in October, and I’m not falling for that again this year. 

Having said that, I could see a happy Gator Nation. Hear me now:

If White’s defense does take the leap I’m hoping for and this team plays anywhere close to its talent level in a brutal SEC gauntlet, Sumrall is going to get some serious Coach of the Year buzz. He’s already shown he can walk into a new job and get buy-in fast — now he just needs to do it against Georgia-caliber competition instead of Group of Five schedules. I wouldn’t bet against him. 

I also wouldn’t bet my mortgage on it, but that’s a different column.

So where’s win number eight?

I’ve stared at this schedule more times than I care to admit, and I still can’t find it. Florida Atlantic, Campbell, South Carolina, Vanderbilt, FSU— fine, those look like checks in the win column. Ole Miss, Oklahoma, Kentucky — that’s your classic toss-up trio, the kind of games that make columnists like me age five years in sixty minutes. Kentucky maybe?

And then there’s the road trip to Texas and a date with Georgia in Atlanta, which I’m filing under “likely losses” right next to my New Year’s resolutions.

Split those toss-ups even close to down the middle, and seven wins is your number. Win two of the three, and now we’re having a real conversation about eight.

Am I apologizing for a seven-win prediction? Absolutely not.

The so-called experts are basically in the same neighborhood as me anyway, which either means my gut has gotten smarter or the neighborhood has gotten more crowded. 

Saturday Down South’s Crystal Ball has Florida at 7–5. Vegas has the over/under sitting right at 7.5. CBS Sports’ Brad Crawford says 6–6, and ESPN’s FPI — a computer, mind you, with no gut at all — lands at 6.74 wins, which sounds like a very specific way of saying “somewhere around six or seven, don’t quote us on the .74 part.”

Then you’ve got Stewart Mandel over at The Athletic going full riverboat gambler with a 9–3 prediction and a Playoff conversation attached to it. I respect the confidence. I just don’t share it — yet. 

If Baugh stays healthy, the offensive line surprises people, and White’s defense turns the corner faster than expected, I’ll gladly eat my words with a side of Gator Ade plus brownies and espresso and organic coffee at Karma Cream.

And in case you were wondering where the league thinks Florida lands — the SEC preseason media poll picked the Gators ninth out of sixteen teams. Ninth. In a 16-team league. That’s not “rebuilding,” that’s “we have genuinely no idea what this team is yet,” which, if I’m honest, is exactly where my gut lives most Augusts anyway.

Seven wins. Maybe eight if the stars — and the offensive line — align. Check back with me after the Ole Miss game, when my gut and I will either be feeling very smart or extremely quiet.

Where’s the eighth win? I’ve looked. It’s not under the couch.

I’ve stared at this schedule so long I could recite it in my sleep.

Florida Atlantic, Campbell, South Carolina, Vanderbilt, FSU — fine, pencil those in, though pencil is the operative word. Ole Miss, Oklahoma, Kentucky — that’s your classic gut-punch quartet, the games that age a columnist five years in sixty minutes. 

Then there’s a road trip to Texas and a rendezvous with Georgia in Atlanta, filed permanently under Things I’d Rather Not Discuss, right next to my 2019-25 predictions.

Split the toss-ups down the middle and seven is your number. Win three of four and now we’re arguing about eight over cold beer instead of hot regret.

Apologizing for seven wins? Not a chance.

Saturday Down South’s Crystal Ball says 7–5. Vegas has the over/under sitting at 7.5, same as always, because Vegas never blinks. CBS Sports says 6–6. ESPN’s FPI — a machine with no gut, no nerves, and no capacity for hope — lands at 6.74, which is a very computer-y way of saying “somewhere around six or seven, don’t ask us to feel good about it.”

Then you’ve got Stewart Mandel over at The Athletic riding in with a 9–3 prediction and a playoff conversation strapped to the saddle. Bless his optimism. I’m not there yet — but if Baugh stays upright, the offensive line surprises everybody, and White’s defense turns the corner faster than advertised, I’ll eat every word of this column with Karma Cream dessert.

And in case anyone needed reminding where at the league actually thinks this team lands: ninth. Out of sixteen. In the SEC preseason media poll. Ninth, in a conference that treats “rebuilding year” like a personal insult.

Seven wins. Maybe eight, if the stars, the O-line, and the football gods all decide to cooperate at once — which, historically, they don’t.

Check back with me after Ole Miss. My gut and I will either be feeling smart, or we’ll be very, very quiet.