Gator Football Crystal Ball: The Entire Season Outlook In One Big Bite

The result is a new era in Gainesville. The expectations are not any different, but the personnel and the philosophy certainly are. Will it be enough?

By EDDIE GILLEY

GatorBaitMedia.com

I always like to start by copying what I wrote in last year’s post! (you can find it at www.eddiegilley.blogspot.com) 

10 wins and a trip to the playoffs is achievable. However,with key injuries or some unlucky bounces and a repeat of last season is also in play. A bowl game seems to be almost a given for this year’s team. It wasn’t long ago when that seemed like a long shot. The expectations are high again in Gainesville. Let’s see if these Gators can live up to expectations!

Yeah, that didn’t play well or last long for sure! I don’t think the expectations were off so much, but the execution by the players and the staff certainly was. The result is a new era in Gainesville. The expectations are not any different, but the personnel and the philosophy certainly are. Will it be enough? Time will tell but let’s take a guess.

The Florida Atlantic Owls swoop into the Swamp for the opener after posting a 4-8 record themselves in year one of the Zach Kittley era. The Owls will return their QB from last season in Caden Veltkamp and should be a prolific passing team. The Gator defense will get an early test in this one. The game may be closer than some will find acceptable or it may be a traditional opening game blowout. I believe we will have a good take on the potential for the rest of the season after this game. 

If the Gators come out flat, there will be noise in the system. I don’t think they will and I think the Gators win this game handily in the second half.

The Campbell University Fighting Camels come to town for week two. Even though this will be the third game for the Camels, I think it will be the more traditional warm up game for the Gators. Look to see a lot of players in this one. Jadan Baugh may make a run at Emmitt Smith’s single game record and not play in the second half! This will be a good tune up for the biggest game of the year for this staff and the players on the team.

Weeks three and four are critical swing weeks for this Gator team. Split the two games and you remain in the hunt for the SEC championship. Lose both and you lose all the good will from an off-season honeymoon with new coach, Jon Sumrall. Win both and national voices will begin to climb on the Gator bandwagon.

The Gators journey to the Loveliest Village on the Plain for a night game at Jordan-Hare Stadium in Auburn. New Tigers head coach Alex Golesh and his staff are in the same boat as the Gators. Hoping to fire up a fan base that is hungry for a return to glory. This one will be extra spicy as former Gator coach D.J. Durkin is the DC for the other orange and blue squad. Goleshand his USF squad beat the Gators last year and the fact that he was selected as HC after Florida hired Sumrall will not be lost on the fans at Auburn. 

The Gators will need to lean on the defense and be efficient on offense to escape back into Eastern time with a win. The real question will be whether the OL can protect the Gator QB and establish a solid run game on the road. 

I really believe this one will be hard game for the Gators to win. I can see a way that they do, but there are some questions at this point that just keep me from believing they will.

With a loss on the road, the game against Ole Miss becomes a must win for the Gators to have any hope at a truly magical season. That’s always the case at some point when you are trying to change the culture. Winning against the #10 team in the country at home would ignite even the most stubborn naysayers among Gator faithful. They will likely come into the Swamp riding high on the momentum of beating Lame Kitten (yep that’s the way I spell it) at home the week prior to the trip to Gainesville. 

I think the home crowd helps this team find a way to upset the Rebels and set the team up for a successful rest of the season. 

The Gators reach the end of the first third with a 3-1 record. I’d love for that to be 4-0 and I’d even be okay with winning at Auburn and losing to Ole Miss. 2-2 will feel like a losing record after the last few years in the Swamp. 

The second third begins with a road trip to Columbia, Missouri, not South Carolina. The good news is that the game is not scheduled for an 11 AM kickoff like it has been most of the time that the Gators have made the far western SEC journey. After an 8-5 record, the Tigers will be coming off a road game in Starkvegasfor a night game. It is possible that they will be 4-0 when the Gators arrive. 

This is another swing game for the good guys. If the Gators win, it bodes well for the second part of the season. Should they lose and the season could be over as far as SEC contention by the 5th game! I think the Gators will run the ball and control the tempo enough to get out of the game with a win. But barely.

The team from the other Columbia comes to the Swamp the next weekend. This one will be an early game. The Fightin’ Chickens will arrive after a swing game of their own against Kentucky at home. Win and they are likely to enter the Swamp at 4-1. Lose and at 3-2 there is a good chance for negative energy to claim a spot in the program. Either way, I think the Gators will have enough at home to take care of the Gamecocks. 

Of course, that depends on the play of the starter at QB and the continued dominance of the Florida run game.

Week three in October sees the Gators going back to Austin, Texas to face the Longhorns. This is a good chance to see how much progress the program has made. I don’t think it will be enough to defeat the Longhorns on the turf in Austin in an early kickoff. I wouldn’t be surprised if this one got away from the Gators early and ended up with an ugly score.

After a bye week, the annual WLOCP game against the Georgia Bulldogs is next on the schedule. While the game will be at the same time, it won’t be in the same stadium or even the same state. This year the game is in Atlanta. 

Let’s hope that the change in venue and the change in regime is enough to turn the red tide that has been present in the rivalry of late. 2020 is the last Gator victory and they have lost 8 of the last 10. Last year they were close. I think this year they will find a way to get over the hump and take out the Bulldogs in Atlanta. 

For that to be true, the defense will have to play a nearly perfect game. The offense just needs to not help the other team with turnovers and to control the ball with a solid ground attack. 

If the Gators can finish the second third of the schedule at 6-2 or even 5-3 that would mean a season of progress in the making. Just making a bowl might not be enough for Coach Sumrall, but it would signal a return to success for the program. That would be enough to give fans hope for the last third of the season.

Something we haven’t had in a couple of years!

The Oklahoma Sooners will make their first trip to The Swamp to start the last third of the Gator’s season. The game is scheduled for a flex position right now meaning it could be in the late afternoon or evening slots. A night game would be epic, but a hot afternoon in November would be pretty good for the home squad too. There are a lot of national folks who will chalk this one up to the Sooners, but they have never experienced the magic of the Swamp. First time coaches and teams rarely get out alive, and they won’t this time either.

Coach Sumrall goes back to his alma mater for a night game in the Bluegrass State. I think the Cats’ winning ways will end on this night. The only thing that could cause the Gators to lose would be another injury on that cursed turf to a critical player! Barring the unthinkable, the Gators should come home from this one in really good shape at 7-3.

Vanderbilt arrives in Gainesville for an early game without a Heisman Trophy finalist at QB. I expect Vandy to return to being Vandy without Diego.

 This is a game that Florida must win to really launch the program back into the national conversation. These are the kinds of games that get a coach fired when they don’t win against the middle or bottom of the conference. But that’s where Florida has been the last few years too! I think the coaches will have the team fired up to win their last home game of the season.

The new staff gets its first taste of the bitter rivalry on the road in Tally. Until Norvell can convince me he’s a great coach, I can’t think he will find a way to pull off the victory. Even with better talent, he couldn’t do it. When the team in Gainesville was in shambles, he couldn’t do it. I don’t think he will do it this year either.

The Gators beat the Noles with ease on Ron Zook Fiqeld.

I think the Gators have a realistic chance to go 9-3. But 7-5 is also a possibility if a couple of the close games go against them. Either way, it’s a bowl appearance for the Gators in Coach Sumrall’s first season at the helm. Given the last few years of mediocrity in the Swamp, that looks pretty good, doesn’t it?