Gators go from 1-point favorite to 2.5-point underdogs overnight

Embattled head coach Billy Napier's Gators fell from favorites to underdogs against UCF overnight (Photo by Chris Spears)

A few thoughts to jump start your Tuesday morning:

Overnight, the oddsmakers in Las Vegas changed their opinions about Florida’s upcoming encounter with UCF (3-1). Sunday night the Gators (2-2) were favored by a single point. Monday, UCF went from underdog to 2.5-point favorite.

It has been that kind of a season for the Gators, whose defensive struggles have all but erased job security for head coach Billy Napier. Napier’s coaching seat burns hotter than a China Syndrome nuclear meltdown. It is a win-or-else predicament that Napier finds himself in and given the difficulty of the schedule, this might be the closest the Gators come to being favored until week 12 when they go to Tallahassee to face the single most disappointing team of the 2024 season, Florida State.

As bad as the Gators have been this year, Florida State has been worse, but Napier may not be around to coach against the Seminoles in late November. First things first, he’s got to find a way to beat a UCF team that is capable of grinding out the yards and controlling the clock. Given the way the Gators have defended the run this year, UCF could turn Saturday night into a track meet at The Swamp.

UCF is coming off a game in which they had few if any answers to Colorado, but obviously, the people in Las Vegas think the Knights will rebound against the Gators, who have given up 550 yards on the ground their last two games. The Gators have had a week to prepare. According to Napier, the Gators put in a hard, productive week of work.

“I do think our football team got better,” Napier said Monday at his weekly press conference. “We had three really good practices Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. I think the staff and the players did a great job competing. I think they competed; all three days were very competitive. One of the better open dates I've been a part of. I think we're hopeful we improved in a lot of areas that can help our team going forward.”

The Gators will have to be better to win this game, just as they will have to be better with a schedule whose four games after UCF are (at) No. 4 Tennessee, Kentucky, No. 5 Georgia and (at) No. 2 Texas.

The schedule is the toughest in the country and only the most optimistic believe Napier can win enough games to survive. Florida’s players are aware the pressure Napier is under, but quarterback Graham Mertz says, there is absolutely no quit in this team.

“We're not going to quit on each other,” Mertz said. “I think that if there was a camera in our indoor for the entire bye week just watching practice, people would be, like, why do they have that juice? Why are they practicing in a bye like this, but it all comes down to we care about each other, we're not going to let each other down. We're never going to quit on each other because we're all we've got right now. It's all the people in this building and no one's quitting.”

COUNTDOWN TO FIRING DAY: WEEK FOUR

On Life Support

Billy Napier, Florida: It’s week-to-week for Billy. Win this week against UCF and he lives to coach another week. Lose to UCF and it’s almost certain he won’t be on the headset when the Gators face Tennessee in Neyland Stadium on October 12. Napier wants another year to prove himself and believes all the good things he’s done to elevate the Florida football culture have earned another year. The boosters who write the big checks that pay the bills and Napier’s more than $7 million a season salary don’t seem to see it that way, however.   

Stan Drayton, Temple: Stan is a fine assistant coach and an exceptional recruiter. He might be a good head coach at a school committed to good football, which Shirley Temple is not. He’s 1-4 this year and any win among the last eight will be an upset.

Sonnie Cumbie, Louisiana Tech: The Bulldogs lost to Florida International and they couldn’t generate any offense. They won’t fire him until the end of the year because they don’t have buyout money. Cumbie is 7-20 career, proof that the Peter Principle is correct. He’s a fine OC, a lousy HBC.

Joe Moorhead, Akron: The Zips are 1-4 this year, their four losses by a combined 155 points. He’s 5-23 at the school. The powers that be at Akron seem to think they’re capable of competing for MAC championships. They need to spend more money, but instead they’ll make Moorhead take the blame.  

Will Hall, Southern Miss: It wasn’t all that long ago that Southern Miss was winning football games but they’re 1-3 this year, the three losses by a combined 93 points. There are some winnable games on the schedule, but if James Madison hangs 60 on them, Will Hall can pack up his office belongings in boxes.

Mike Bloomgren, Rice: They really don’t like firing coaches at Rice where the average freshman SAT is somewhere between 1490 and 1550. But they would prefer a coach who gets the Owls close to .500 every year. It won’t happen this year. This could be it for Bloomgren. He’s 1-4. Win four more and he stays. Anything less he goes.   

Mike Neu, Ball State: He’s an On Life Support regular but this time he probably gets the axe. Even a school that doesn’t spend a lot of money on football gets embarrassed when James Madison leaves you bleeding in the tall grass to the tune of 63-7. Neu is 38-58 career in eight previous seasons so it’s pretty obvious winning is not exactly in the cards.

Endangered Species List

Hugh Freeze, Auburn: Auburn is 2-3, 0-2 in the SEC and needless to say, the natives are rather restless. They will be even more restless after Saturday because the Fighting Freezes have to go to Athens. Hugh isn’t going to be fired this year, but next year he better win eight or he’ll be unemployed.  

Dave Aranda, Baylor: The Bears have lost their last two and the rest of the schedule is daunting by Big 12 standards. When Texas and Oklahoma left for the SEC, everyone thought Baylor would contend but it’s looking like the Bears will be bottom feeders. If he loses big to Iowa State this weekend he might not survive October.  

Sam Pittman, Arkansas: Everybody loves Sam, but they aren’t convinced he can win consistently. You would think that with go-zillionaires with last names like Walton, Tyson, Reynolds and Hunt they would have spent big to begin with. He’s 26-26 career, 3-2 this year with Tennessee, LSU, Ole Miss and Texas still on the schedule.  

Mike Houston, East Carolina: The Pirates are 3-2 after taking down UT-San Antonio. Charlotte is winnable followed by Army at West Point, which is very losable. After that it’s three straight games ECU should win. Seven wins buys another year.

Clay Helton, Georgia Southern: The Eagles are 3-2 and there are at least four winnable games remaining on the schedule. He won’t get fired with seven wins but 6-6 will be dicey.  

Jim McElwain, Central Michigan: Two straight wins have the Chips sitting 3-2 with seven to go, of which they will be underdogs in five. Old Yeller needs break even to stay gainfully employed.

Don Brown, UMass: The Minutemen are 1-4 and they’re going to get hosed their next two games – Northern Illinois and Missouri. Brown is 5-21 career at UMass. At most places that gets you fired, but they have no money so he probably coaches next year no matter how they finish.

Mike Norvell, Florida State: There is this juicy rumor circulating among Seminoles that if Norvell wanted to go somewhere else, they wouldn’t hold him to the buyout. They’re that disgusted with a 1-4 start and five games without cracking 300 yards of offense. The next three are Clemson followed by unbeatens Duke and Miami. Bad juju in Tallahassee for sure.

Kenni Burns, Kent State: This is the same school where Don James coached, the school that produced future great coaches such as Lou Holtz, Nick Saban and Gary Pinkel and all-time great middle linebacker Jack Lambert. The alums think 1-15 in two seasons isn’t getting it done for some strange reason. If he’s fired it won’t be until the end of the year. If he stays it’s because they can’t afford the buyout.

ONE FINAL PITHY THOUGHT: Pete Rose died Monday at the age of 83. He holds the Major League Baseball record for hits (4,256) and games played (3,562). He was a 17-time All-Star, a 3-time National League batting champion, a 2-time Gold Glove winner and the National League MVP in 1973.

If it were only about what he did on the field, Pete Rose would be in the Baseball Hall of Fame in Cooperstown. Pete gambled on baseball both as a player and as a manager, earning a lifetime ban and exclusion from the Hall of Fame. Pete went to his grave believing his on-the-field accomplishments should have overridden the gambling but it’s a ban that almost certainly will never be lifted.

I remember the sour feeling I had in my stomach the day baseball commissioner Bart Giamatti announced that Pete Rose was suspended because he had gambled on baseball. It must have been the same that kid had back in 1920 when a grand jury found Shoeless Joe Jackson guilty of fixing games in the 1919 World Series between the Chicago White Sox and the Cincinnati Reds.

Legend has it a kid who looked up to Joe Jackson said, “Say it ain’t so, Joe!”

I wanted to burst out with “Say it ain’t so, Pete!” but it was so and I knew it. Bart Giammati wouldn’t have suspended Pete if he didn’t have rock solid evidence.

Pete spent years denying he gambled on baseball. When he finally got around to admitting it, he thought his greatness as a player would open the door for him to be reinstated to the game so he could be enshrined in the Hall of Fame. Of course, he was never reinstated or forgiven. He committed baseball’s unpardonable sin.

Over the years, I’ve reached the conclusion that it was Pete Rose’s monumental ego that did him in. I believe as a manager Pete grew weary of dealing with players who had neither the drive or ability that he had and he looked for new thrills. He knew gambling on the game was wrong but I believe his ego got the best of him. I believe that Pete Rose thought he was bigger than the game, so big that he could get away with anything. When he got caught and suspended, he did what his ego told him to do, which is to be absorbed by total denial.

I would prefer to remember the Pete Rose who earned the nickname “Charlie Hustle” because he ran to first base on walks and dove head first into second and third. I would prefer to remember the Pete Rose who would sign autograph after autograph, almost always offering words of encouragement to kids who looked up to him.

Unfortunately, I have trouble remembering that Pete Rose because he gambled on baseball and when given so many opportunities over so many years to admit the truth, he lived a lie. What a shame.