Gators have already exceeded the preseason over/under of 4.5 wins

Billy Napier has reason to laugh a little after the Gators bushwhacked LSU (Gator Bait Photo by Chris Spears)

A few thoughts to jump start your Monday afternoon:

Back in August, before the college football season kicked off, the people who set the odds in Las Vegas put the over-under on the Florida Gators at 4.5. As in 4.5 wins based on a schedule considered the most brutal in the entire country. If you took the over, you should be commended since the Gators are 5-5 with two games remaining in perhanps Florida's toughest schedule ever.

Florida opponents in Associated Press preseason top 25: 1. Georgia; 4. Texas;  6. Ole Miss; 10. Florida State; 13. LSU; 15. Tennessee; 19. Miami; and 20. Texas A&M.

Florida opponents in the AFCA Coaches preseason top 25: 1. Georgia; 4. Texas; 6. Ole Miss; 10. Florida State; 12. LSU; 15. Tennessee; 19. Miami; and 20. Texas A&M.

Florida opponents in Phil Steele preseason top 40: 1. Georgia; 4. Texas; 10. Miami; 13. Florida State; 14. Ole Miss; 19. LSU; 24. Tennessee; 28. Texas A&M and 39. Kentucky.

Florida opponents in Athlon preseason top 25: 1. Georgia; 4. Texas; 5. Ole Miss; 11. LSU; 12. Florida State; 13. Tennessee; 18. Texas A&M; and 20. Miami.

Florida opponents in Lindy’s preseason top 25: 1. Georgia; 3. Texas; 5. Ole Miss; 10. Florida State; 13. LSU; 15. Tennessee; 17. Miami; and 19. Texas A&M.

There is no denying all these people got Florida State wrong and LSU has begun to fade, but take a look at the current rankings with Florida opponents in bold face. All of Florida’s losses are to teams still ranked in the top 25, so it’s obvious they got the strength of schedule right.

With two games to go, one of which is a very bad Florida State team, the Gators should get to six wins and bowl eligibility, which in itself is an accomplishment. The Gators should already have six wins. The Gators lost to Tennessee in overtime, but that’s a game they should have won. That’s not making excuses. That’s reality.

Billy Napier has gotten plenty of criticism this year, some of it deserved. Despite a rash of injuries like anything seen at UF since the 2013 season that doomed Will Muschamp, the Gators have improved. Six regular season wins seem probable, seven with an upset of Ole Miss. A bowl win could ensure Florida’s first winning season since 2020.

Associated Press top 25: 1. Oregon 11-0; 2. Ohio State 9-1; 3. Texas 9-1; 4. Penn State 9-1; 5. Indiana 10-0; 6. Notre Dame 9-1; 7. Alabama 8-2; 8. Georgia 8-2; 9. Ole Miss 8-2; 10. Tennessee 8-2; 11. Miami 9-1; 12. Boise State 9-1; 13. SMU 9-1; 14. BYU 9-1; 15. Texas A&M 8-2; 16. Colorado 8-2; 17. Clemson 8-2; 18. Army 9-0; 19. South Carolina 7-3; 20. Tulane 9-2; 21. Arizona State 8-2; 22. Iowa State 8-2; 23. UNLV 8-2; 24. Illinois 7-3; 25. Washington State 8-2

AFCA Coaches top 25: 1. Oregon 11-0; 2. Ohio State 9-1; 3. Texas 9-1; 4. Penn State 9-1; 5. Indiana 10-0; 6. Notre Dame 9-1; 7. Alabama 8-2; 8. Georgia 8-2; 9. Ole Miss 8-2; 10. Miami 9-1; 11. Tennessee 8-2; 12. SMU 9-1; 13. Boise 9-1; 14. Texas A&M 8-2; 15. BYU 9-1; 16. Clemson 8-2; 17. Army 9-0; 18. Colorado 8-2; 19.  South Carolina 7-3; 20. Tulane 9-2; 21. Iowa State 8-2; 22. Arizona State 8-2; 23. UNLV 8-2; 24. Memphis 9-2; 25. Kansas State

SEC FOOTBALL

No. 7 Alabama (8-2, 4-2 SEC): Next: at Oklahoma (5-5, 1-5 SEC)

Arkansas (5-5, 3-4 SEC): The Razorbacks should get the win that makes them bowl eligible this week against Louisiana Tech. Next: Louisiana Tech (4-6)

Auburn (4-6, 1-5 SEC): Auburn’s path to bowl eligibility couldn’t be more difficult with the Aggies at home this Saturday and at Alabama the next. Next: No. 15 Texas A&M (8-2, 5-1 SEC)

No. 8 Georgia (8-2, 6-2 SEC): Georgia has finished its SEC schedule. Both losses are against ranked teams that should make the playoff (Alabama and Ole Miss) and there are two wins over teams that are likely to make the playoff (Texas and Tennessee). Next: UMass (2-8)

Kentucky (4-6, 1-6 SEC): Starting linebacker D’Eryk Jackson will miss the remainder of the season with an undisclosed injury. Jackson had 38 tackles, one sack and one interception. Next: at No. 3 Texas (9-1, 5-1 SEC)

LSU (6-4, 3-3 SEC): “It’s indescribable what a hot mess LSU is at the moment,” said Paul Finebaum of the SEC Network on the Matt Barrie Show. “You see Kelly yelling at players, them yelling back at him ... Depending on how this season ends, Kelly is going to be facing maybe the coldest winter of any SEC coach.” Next: Vanderbilt (6-4, 3-3 SEC)

Mississippi State (2-8, 0-6 SEC): Surprisingly, Mississippi State is just an 8-point underdog for their homer with Missouri on Saturday.  Next: Missouri (7-3, 3-3 SEC)

Missouri (7-3, 3-3 SEC): Missouri’s furious second half rally came up short because the defense couldn’t get a stop in the last minute of the game, officially ending any chance the Tigers have of making the SEC Championship Game. Next: at Mississippi State (2-8, 0-6 SEC)

Oklahoma (5-5, 1-5 SEC): The Sooners need a win in their next two games to make a bowl game. They’ve got Alabama this week and they’re on the road at LSU in the season finale. Next: No. 7 Alabama (8-2, 4-2 SEC)

No. 9 Ole Miss (8-2, 4-2 SEC): The Rebels open as a 9.5-point favorite to beat Florida in Gainesville Saturday ... The Rebels rank No. 2 nationally in total offense, No. 16 in total defense. Next: at FLORIDA (5-5, 3-4 SEC)

South Carolina (7-3, 5-3 SEC): After falling behind 30-27 with 1:10 left in the game, the Gamecocks moved the ball 70 yards in six plays over a 47-second span to beat Missouri, 34-30. Next: Wofford (5-6)

No. 10 Tennessee (8-2, 5-2 SEC): All 13 of ESPN’s college football writers project the Vols won’t make the College Football Playoff after their loss to Georgia.  Next: UTEP (2-8)

No. 3 Texas (9-1, 5-1 SEC): Despite an inconsistent offense in the win over Arkansas, the Texas defense allowed the Razorbacks only 231 yards. Florida is the only team all season to gain more than 300 yards on the Longhorns. Next: Kentucky (4-6, 1-6 SEC)

No. 15 Texas A&M (8-2, 5-1 SEC): As the only team in the SEC with one league loss, the Aggies will win their first Southeastern Conference championship in football if they win their last two games. Next: at Auburn (4-6, 1-5 SEC)

Vanderbilt (6-4, 3-3 SEC): The stars and planets seem to be aligning for the Commodores. Saturday opponent LSU has lost three consecutive games. A win and the Commodores are assured of their first winning season since James Franklin’s final year in 2013. Next: at LSU (6-4, 3-3 SEC)

AROUND THE STATE

Florida Atlantic (2-8, 0-6 American): In the Owl Bowl, the Temple Owls beat the FAU Owls in overtime. So which coach got fired? Temple coach Stan Drayton, of course. Next: Charlotte (3-7, 2-4 American)

Florida International (3-7, 2-4 Conference USA): The Panthers gave up 14 fourth quarter points, blowing a chance to upset league-leader Jacksonville State. Next: at Kennesaw State (1-9, 1-5 Conference USA)

Florida State (1-9, 1-7 ACC): The Seminoles have a legitimate shot to get a win this week against D1AA doormat Charleston Southern.  Next: Charleston Southern (1-10)

Miami (9-1, 5-1 ACC): Miami finds itself sweating its chances to get into the ACC Championship Game. Clemson has already finished its league schedule at 7-1 while SMU is 6-0 with easy games against Virginia and California. The Hurricanes have a home game with Wake Forest and a road trip to dangerous Syracuse. Next: Wake Forest (4-6, 2-4 ACC)

South Florida (5-5, 3-3 American): The Bulls ran for 425 yards in their win over CharlotteNext: Tulsa (3-7, 1-5 American) 

UCF (4-6, 2-5 Big 12): The Knights are confident they can become bowl eligible now that Dylan Rizk has taken over at QB. They will need him to play well to win at West Virginia and home against Utah. Next: at West Virginia (5-5, 4-3 Big 12)

SEC BASKETBALL

No. 20 FLORIDA (4-0): The Gators are 19th in the kenpom.com analytics.

No. 2 Alabama (3-1): The Crimson Tide will almost certainly move down a few spots after taking a loss to Purdue.

No. 18 Arkansas (2-1): Kentucky transfer Adou Thiero leads the team in scoring (17.0) and rebounding (5.7).  

No. 5 Auburn (3-0): The Tigers are No. 1 in the kenpom.com analytics.

Georgia (4-0): 5-star freshman Asa Newell is scoring 16.8 points and grabbing 7.5 rebounds per game.

No. 19 Kentucky (3-0): Kentucky should move into the top ten after scoring a come-from-behind win to beat Duke last week.

LSU (4-0): The Tigers got a big win on the road at Kansas State last week.

Mississippi State (4-0): Former Gator Riley Kugel is averaging 6.3 points per game while coming off the bench.

Missouri (3-1): The Tigers got a school record 72-point win over Mississippi Valley State last week.  

Oklahoma (3-0): Wofford transfer Sam Godwin is tied for 6th nationally, grabbing 11.7 rebounds per game.

No. 25 Ole Miss (4-0): The Rebels have yet to allow an opponent 70 points.

South Carolina (2-2): The Gamecocks had their 2-game win streak ended by Indiana, 87-71,

No. 11 Tennessee (4-0): Zakai Ziegler is averaging 7.7 assists per game which is tied for 10th nationally.

Texas (3-1): Tre Johnson is hitting 58.6 percent of his 3-pointers while averaging 23.5 points per game.

No. 23 Texas A&M (3-1): The Aggies got a win over No. 21 Ohio State last week.

Vanderbilt (4-0): Boston College transfer Devin McGlockton is averaging 16 points and 10 rebounds per game.

Sunday’s scores

No. 11 Tennessee (4-0) 103, Austin Peay (3-1) 68

Mississippi State (4-0) 78, Utah (3-1) 73 

Monday’s games

Pacific (3-2) at No. 18 Arkansas (2-1)

North Alabama (3-1) at No. 5 Auburn (3-0)

Tuesday’s games

Florida A&M at No. 20 FLORIDA (4-0)

Lipscomb (2-3) at No. 19 Kentucky (3-0)

Alabama A&M (3-1) at Georgia (4-0)

Charleston Southern (1-4) at LSU (3-0)

Wednesday’s games

Southern (1-3) at No. 23 Texas A&M (3-1)

Illinois (3-0) at No. 2 Alabama (3-1)

Thursday’s games

Mercer (2-2) at South Carolina (2-2)

Syracuse (3-0) vs. Texas (3-1) in Brooklyn

Vanderbilt (4-0) vs. Nevada (4-0) in Charleston, SC

Oral Roberts (2-2) at No. 25 Ole Miss (4-0)

East Texas A&M (1-3) at Oklahoma (3-0)

Virginia (3-0) vs. No. 11 Tennessee (4-0) in Nassau, Bahamas

Friday’s games

Southern Illinois (1-2) at No. 20 FLORIDA (4-0)

Pittsburgh (4-0) at LSU (4-0)

Jackson State (0-4) at No. 19 Kentucky (3-0)

Pacific (3-1) at Missouri (3-1)

Mississippi State (4-0) at SMU (3-1)

Little Rock (2-2) at No. 18 Arkansas (2-1)

ONE FINAL PITHY THOUGHT: Welcome to chaos. We’re still three weeks away from the selection of the 12 teams that will fill the brackets of the first expanded College Football Playoff. If you thought there were a lot of butt-hurt folks such as last year (see Florida State) when it was four teams, just wait until this year.

Isn’t it wonderful? Conference championship games may decide the four teams that get first round byes in expanded playoff, but picking the other eight teams is going to be problematic, particularly since only one Group of Five team will get in. This is a year in which there are three or four teams that will get snubbed.

So, what’s the solution? One would be to expand to 16 teams, then EVERY Division I conference champ could get in (SEC, Big Ten, Big 12, ACC, American, Mountain West, Sun Belt, MAC, Conference USA) and there would still be room for seven at-large teams.

The other choice -- and the one I would prefer -- would be a 12-team playoff for the four power conferences and a separate playoff for the Group of Five. Give them their own playoff and let them crown their own national champ. It would beat having to watch meaningless bowl games that fill time. There is enough dead time on networks to make this work.