Gators projected to earn top three seeds in dueling bracketologies

The guys on the Florida bench get it (UAA Photo)

A few thoughts to jump start your Monday morning:

In the highly cannibalistic world that is Southeastern Conference basketball, it seems unrealistic to think that any team is going to make it through the league with fewer than three losses. There is no conference in the country with better teams from top to bottom. Joe Lunardi of ESPN projects 12 SEC teams in the NCAA Tournament field while Jerry Palm of CBS projects 13.

The Lunardi projections:

No. 1 seeds: Auburn (South); Tennessee (West)

No. 2 seeds: Kentucky (South); Florida (East); Alabama (Midwest)

No. 4 seed: Texas A&M (East)

No. 5 seeds: Mississippi State (West); Ole Miss (Midwest)

No. 7 seed: Georgia (West)

No. 8 seed: Missouri (Midwest)

No. 10 seed: Oklahoma (East)

No. 11 seed: Texas (Midwest)

The Palm projections:

No. 1 seeds: Auburn (South); Tennessee (West)

No. 2 seeds: Alabama (East) Kentucky (Midwest)

No. 3 seeds: Florida (West); Ole Miss (South)

No. 4 seeds: Texas A&M (East); Mississippi State (Midwest)

No. 6 seed: Missouri (East)

No. 7 seed: Georgia (West)

No. 8 seed: Oklahoma (Midwest)

No. 11 seeds: Texas (Midwest); Vanderbilt (South)

Florida’s schedule is conducive to a top four seed. This week the Gators are at South Carolina, winless in SEC play, and home against Georgia, which lost twice to ranked teams last week. That gets the Gators through the month of January, likely with a 5-2 record in league play.

Then comes a very difficult four-game stretch of that includes roadies with Tennessee, Auburn and Mississippi State. That will be followed by homers with South Carolina and Oklahoma and a roadie to LSU. The final four-game stretch will be as difficult as there is in the SEC: at Georgia, Texas A&M, at Alabama, and Ole Miss.

A 12-6 SEC record should be good enough for a top four seed. Should the Gators go 13-5 or even 14-4, they should not only be in the hunt for a one or two, but for the regular season SEC title.

SEC BASKETBALL GAME

No. 4 Alabama (15-3, 4-1 SEC): Alabama was shocked in Tuscaloosa by Mississippi State, but the Tide rebounded by taking out Kentucky at Rupp. Alabama is No. 7 in the NCAA NET rankings, No. 8 in kenpom.com.

Arkansas (11-7, 0-5 SEC): So far the expected transformation of Arkansas basketball under John Calipari hasn’t taken place. The 0-5 start in SEC play is the first time since his first year as the head coach at UMass that Cal has started with five straight losses. The Razorbacks are No. 53 in the NCAA NET rankings, No. 56 at kenpom.com.

No. 1 Auburn (17-1, 5-0 SEC): Even without Johni Broome, the Tigers won two games against ranked opponents (No. 15 Mississippi State; No. 23 Georgia). The Tigers are No.1 in the NCAA NET rankings, No. 2 on kenpom.com.

No. 5 FLORIDA (16-2, 3-2 SEC): The Gators bounced back from a surprising loss to Mizzou with a dominant win over Texas. The Gators are now No. 5 at both the NCAA NET rankings and kenpom.com.

No. 23 Georgia (14-4, 2-3 SEC): As soon as the Bulldogs broke into the AP top 25 they promptly had an 0-2 week, falling to Tennessee and Auburn. All four of Georgia’s losses are to teams ranked in the top 25. The Bulldogs are No. 27 in the NCAA NET rankings, No. 35 at kenpom.com.

No. 8 Kentucky (14-4, 3-2 SEC):

LSU (12-6, 1-4 SEC): The Tigers picked up their first SEC win during the week over Arkansas in Baton Rouge. The Tigers are No. 69 in the NCAA NET rankings, No. 68 at kenpom.com.

Missouri (15-3, 4-1 SEC): Missouri is certain to break into the AP top 25 rankings after beating Florida on the road and then blowing out Arkansas. The Tigers moved up to No. 24 in the NCAA NET rankings and to No. 28 at kenpom.com.

No. 15 Mississippi State (15-3, 3-2 SEC): Former Gator Riley Kugel scored 21 points and made key plays in the Bulldogs’ overtime win over No. 23 Ole Miss. The Bulldogs are No. 16 in the NCAA NET rankings, No. 22 in kenpom.com.

Oklahoma (14-4, 1-4 SEC): The Sooners finally got their first SEC win in school history when they beat South Carolina in Columbia. The Sooners are No. 49 in the NCAA NET rankings, No. 45 in kenpom.com.

No. 21 Ole Miss (15-3, 4-1 SEC): The Rebels went 1-1 on the road against ranked teams, beating Alabama in Tuscaloosa then losing to Mississippi State in Starkville. Ole Miss is No. 13 in the NCAA NET rankings, No. 17 at kenpom.com.

South Carolina (10-8, 0-5 SEC): The Gamecocks went down in flames twice on the road (Vanderbilt; Oklahoma). Their next seven games are against ranked teams starting Tuesday night in Columbia against No. 5 Florida. The Gamecocks are No. 91 in the NCAA NET rankings, No. 89 at kenpom.com.

No. 6 Tennessee (16-2, 3-2 SEC): The Vols scored nine straight points in the last 2:46 but came up one point short at Vanderbilt when Chaz Lanier missed the second of two free throws with 2.8 seconds to go. The Vols are No. 4 in the NCAA NET rankings, No. 6 in kenpom.com.

Texas (12-6, 1-4 SEC): The Longhorns got their first SEC win in school history at Oklahoma, but got blown out at No. 5 Florida. Texas is No. 40 in the NCAA NET rankings, No. 42 at kenpom.com.

No. 11 Texas A&M (14-4, 3-2 SEC): Back after missing two weeks with an injury, Wade Taylor IV had 12 points, four rebounds, four assists and two steals to help the Aggies past LSU. Texas A&M is No. 20 in the NCAA NET rankings, No. 19 in the kenpom.com.

Vanderbilt (15-3, 3-2 SEC): The Commodores won two home games by a combined four points (by 3 over South Carolina, by 1 over Tennessee). They could break into the AP top 25. The Commodores are No. 37 in the NCAA NET rankings, No. 48 at kenpom.com.

Tuesday’s games

Vanderbilt (15-3, 3-2 SEC) at No. 4 Alabama (15-3, 4-1 SEC)

No. 15 Mississippi State (15-3, 3-2 SEC) at No. 6 Tennessee (16-2, 3-2 SEC)

Missouri (15-3, 4-1 SEC) at Texas (12-6, 1-4 SEC)

Wednesday’s games

No. 5 FLORIDA (16-2, 3-2 SEC) at South Carolina (10-8, 0-5 SEC)

No. 11 Texas A&M (14-4, 3-2 SEC) at No. 21 Ole Miss (15-3, 4-1 SEC)

No. 23 Georgia (14-4, 2-3 SEC) at Arkansas (11-7, 0-5 SEC)

Saturday’s games

No. 23 Georgia (14-4, 2-3 SEC) at No. 5 FLORIDA (16-2, 3-2 SEC)

No. 6 Tennessee (16-2, 3-2 SEC) at No. 1 Auburn (17-1, 5-0 SEC)

LSU (12-6, 1-4 SEC) at No. 4 Alabama (15-3, 4-1 SEC)

No. 8 Kentucky (14-4, 3-2 SEC) at Vanderbilt (15-3, 3-2 SEC)

No. 11 Texas A&M (14-4, 3-2 SEC) at Texas (12-6, 1-4 SEC)

No. 15 Mississippi State (15-3, 3-2 SEC) at South Carolina (10-8, 0-5 SEC)

No. 21 Ole Miss (15-3, 4-1 SEC) at Missouri (15-3, 4-1 SEC)

Oklahoma (14-4, 1-4 SEC) at Arkansas (11-7, 0-5 SEC)

ONE FINAL PITHY THOUGHT: The college football season concludes tonight in Atlanta with Ohio State (13-2) favored by 8.5 points to beat Notre Dame for the national championship. On paper, the Buckeyes certainly look the part of favorites and champions, quite a contrast from the team that was ground to a standstill by Michigan. The Buckeyes have a great running game, NFL receivers and a defense that gets after the quarterback with astonishing ease. They also have a strong Florida connection in head coach Ryan Day, Mickey Marotti (strength and conditioning) and general manager Mark Pantoni. All three were part of the Urban Meyer regime at UF.

So why is it I’m struggling to get the warm and fuzzies about the Buckeyes? Why is it I keep thinking Notre Dame is going to do to the Buckeyes what Michigan did while generating just enough offense to win the game?

I genuinely believe Ohio State has better personnel on both sides of the football but that’s pretty much the case no matter who lines up against the Buckeyes. Mark Pantoni is as good as it gets when it comes to identifying the talent it takes to fill out a championship roster. I’m a firm believer that Billy Napier needs to spend whatever is necessary to bring Pantoni and wife (both Gator grads) back to Gainesville.

Despite all that, I can’t bring myself to pick the Buckeyes to beat Notre Dame. I loathe the idea of listening to Domers boasting non-stop, which I know they are going to do if they spring the upset and win the national championship. I have no idea how Notre Dame is going to run the ball against the Buckeyes and I wonder out loud how Riley Leonard is going to escape that ferocious pass rush. I know the Irish don’t have the explosive players on offense. I am not at all sure they can put the pressure on Will Howard, turning him into the ineffective quarterback he was against Michigan. I damn sure can’t figure out how the Irish are going to keep Jeremiah Smith from turning this game into a track meet. I have watched at least seven Notre Dame games and I haven’t seen a corner capable of sticking with Ohio State’s electric freshman receiver.

And yet here I am on Sunday night trying to tell myself that it’s pure folly to pick Notre Dame to win this game. But, that’s exactly what I’m going to do. Don’t ask me for a score. I just think Notre Dame is going to score at least one more point than the Buckeyes. I think Notre Dame coach Marcus Freeman has a team that believes in him, believes in each other and believes there isn’t a team on the planet that is going to beat them. Nothing against Ryan Day and the Buckeyes. I like Ryan, Pantoni and Mickey enormously. Common sense tells me they’ll be happy campers Monday night.

Something inside tells me I’m going to be listening to the Domers explaining to me that without Notre Dame there is no such thing as college football for an entire year.

***

When the clock at Mercedes-Benz Stadium flatlines at zero, the first 12-team playoff will have concluded successfully but not without problems that have to be addressed. Is a 12-team playoff best or should the playoff expand to 16 teams? Should ESPN monopolize the playoffs or should college football go to an NFL model which includes multiple networks for the playoff with the Super Bowl (championship game) rotated among the networks?  Should conference champions take a back seat to the 12 top teams even though that might eliminate the best team from the group of five? Should there be two national championships: One for the top 70-80 teams in Division I, the other for the group of five, which could expand to include some of the better D1AA conferences such as the Missouri Valley and Big Sky?

There are bigger issues than just the playoff, but unfortunately, I can’t see any haste to tackle them. The NCAA has taken the approach to let Congress do something, which figures when you consider academics run the NCAA. College football is a business and it should be run as a business by business people. The sooner that happens, the healthier college football will become.

The best way to ensure the health and survival of college football is to start a new organization with its own set of rules and a commissioner with unmatched integrity and the iron hand to enforce the rules effectively. The NCAA has completely outlived its usefulness and the longer college football is tied to that NCAA, it will be a matter of time before the problems are insurmountable.