Gators vs Vols: Doesn’t this feel like a trap?

For the record, Carlton the Doorman’s system this year is 13-5 betting home underdogs and 2-0 betting large home favorites

By CARLTON REESE

The Real Carlton, not The Doorman

Looking for trends in his system, Carlton the Doorman informs that road underdogs have been a very bad play this year, but home dogs seem to be flourishing. In 2020, the opposite seemed to hold true, but the Doorman insists that this early trend seems to be one to follow the rest of the way.

Knowing this, the normal bets of road underdogs trending the way of the computer may not be so reliable. This week, those would be Middle Tennessee (plus 3 over Charlotte), San Jose State (plus 3 over W. Michigan), FAU (plus 5.5 over Air Force) and Rutgers (plus 20 over Michigan). It’s too bad, because I personally like those in spite of Carlton the Doorman’s fears.

The home dogs he likes this week are South Carolina (plus 5 over Kentucky), Ball State (plus 4.5 over Toledo), N.C. State (plus 10 over Clemson) and Arkansas (plus 5.5 over Texas A&M). He also likes the following home favorites: Oregon (minus 28.5 over Arizona) and Iowa (minus 23 over Colorado State).

For the record, Carlton the Doorman’s system this year is 13-5 betting home underdogs and 2-0 betting large home favorites. The road dog bets this year have kept Carlton the Doorman from quitting his job.

And what of the Florida Gators this week? For the first three weeks, UF has not been part of any betting trend flagged by Carlton the Doorman’s system, and that holds true again this week against Tennessee. The system calls Tennessee a road underdog selection, but not trending (the difference in the system’s margin and the Vegas line is too small to warrant it as a pick). If it makes Gator fans feel better, the non-trending road dog picks (of which the Vols would be) are 5-14 this year.

For the game itself, this feels a bit like a trap. An emotional loss that somehow has everyone feeling great about the program could turn out to be fool’s gold if the Gators are not careful. I’m reminded of Florida State’s overtime loss to Notre Dame in the season opener where the Noles finally believed they were back, only to take the week off against Jacksonville State and now their season is effectively over.

If UF takes Tennessee lightly (and the Vols feel pretty confident in their offense right now), the season could be ruined and any goodwill established for the program in last week’s thriller will go right down the drain.

Remember 1982? Wins over Miami and Southern Cal had vaulted Florida into the top-5 and there was never a more positive vibe around Florida football. In the fourth game, the 4th-ranked Gators laid an egg at home against an unranked LSU team. The season and all that goodwill evaporated the following week in a stunning loss at Vanderbilt – those first two wins became distant memories and Georgia’s 44-0 thrashing of the Gators turned 1982 into one big disappointment.

Perhaps losing to Alabama will turn out to be a good thing for Florida. The fire should still be burning as with one conference loss there is absolutely no room for a letdown from here on. If you can’t be properly prepared and motivated for the team that runs out of the tunnel with that big ‘T’ on the helmet, then you don’t belong in any championship conversations.

Still, this feels strange, as though Tennessee is sneaking into Gainesville way under the radar while Florida is basking in the glow of exposing Alabama. It feels like one of those games where the Gators could come out flat, and if that is the case then there is trouble ahead.

The good news is that the game is at night, and this always means a raucous crowd no matter who the opponent. A raucous crowd should mean an energized team. An energized team should mean the inevitable destruction of Tennessee. Just don’t sleep on it, please.

Carlton the Doorman’s games of note:

SEC

Georgia by 49 over Vanderbilt

LSU by 4 over Mississippi State

Boston College by 14 over Missouri

Texas A&M by 3.5 over Arkansas

Auburn by 31 over Georgia State

Florida by 15.5 over Tennessee

South Carolina by 3.5 over Kentucky

Alabama by 48 over Southern Miss

Others:

Liberty by 12.5 over Syracuse

Clemson by 6.5 over N.C. State

Louisville by 22 over Florida State

Wisconsin by 11 over Notre Dame

Michigan by 1 over Rutgers

Michigan State by 3 over Nebraska

Oklahoma by 18.5 over West Virginia

UCLA by 10 over Stanford

BYU by 36.5 over South Florida

FAU by 9 over Air Force

C. Michigan by 23 over FIU

Carlton the Doorman’s Top 10 (with power rating):

1. Alabama (106)

2. Iowa (105.5)

3. Georgia (101)

4. Oklahoma (98.5)

5. Ole Miss (98)

6. Penn State (96)

7. Cincinnati (95)

8. North Carolina (92)

9. Texas A&M (86.5)

10. Liberty (86)