Hoop strategy: Golden plays chess while other coaches play checkers

When it comes to basketball analytics, Todd Golden is a genius (Photo by Chris Spears)

There are times when Todd Golden makes you think he’s playing chess while the other coaches in the Southeastern Conference are playing checkers. Think back to the end of the first half of Florida’s win over Oklahoma back on Tuesday.

Following a pair of Will Richard free throws that gave the Florida Gators a 44-26 lead with 29 seconds to go, Golden called a timeout to set the strategy for the end of the half. Things got interesting on the sideline as Golden elected to take what most would consider a very unorthodox plan of attack. The decision was made to try to force a turnover, but if the Sooners broke the pressure, go ahead and foul somebody.

Wait? Oklahoma’s in the bonus so a foul gives them a one-and-one opportunity at the line.

“I mean, we're just prepared for those moments, you know,” Golden said Friday before the 2nd-ranked Gators (23-3, 10-3 SEC) left for Baton Rouge where they will face LSU (14-12, 3-10 SEC) at the Maravich Center tonight (6 p.m., SEC Network). “Like, Saf (Jonathan Safir), Hov (Kevin Hovde) are sprinting up to me and saying ‘we should foul, we got to foul here, we got to foul’ and then I got (John) Andrzejek yelling ‘we can’t foul, we can’t give them points’ so we’re just going back and forth.”

But there is method to Golden’s madness and it’s fueled by the analytics that tell him the foul is exactly what the Gators should do.

“So at that point, they're gonna hold for the last shot, right?” Golden explained. “There's no shot clock, so you leave with 29 seconds or whatever, they're winning the rest of that half, and I think – and I could be off a little bit – but generally, like, end of half possession that's going against the set defense is worth a little less than a point. It's like .9 points, right, that possession is worth .9. So, in that scenario, when they hold for the last shot, they're going to beat you over that 28 seconds .9, theoretically, right? A point to your zero points, because you don't get the ball back.

“So even fouling (Jeremiah) Fears, who's a 90 percent free throw shooter – and a key part of this is they were in the one-and-one, so there's no guarantee that you get a second free throw in the one-and-one. So, it's not 1.8, it's not as simply as 90 percent times two, because it's 90 percent, but that 10 percent he could miss it, right? Which he did, by the way, so you  foul him and you raised their point probability from .9 to probably 1.6 or something like that. Which, okay, you're giving them an extra .7, right? But now we get the ball back right with 10 seconds, however it is. So we go from zero expected points to .9, on 10 seconds. Close enough, maybe a little less, but right in that ballpark. So you're winning that foul by .2 points over those 28 seconds, or whatever.” 

Fears missed the free throw. Urban Klavzar sneaked under the rim and grabbed the rebound, then navigated through traffic, head up, looking for someone to pass the ball to. Between the midcourt and foul circle at the Florida end of the court, he accelerated, blew past everybody and beat the horn with a layup.

Instead of giving up two points, the Gators got the ball back, scored two and their halftime lead expanded to 20, 46-26. Just like that.

Thinking analytically paid off.

“We fouled a little earlier than we wanted, but it gave us a little more time to make a play, and he misses the free throw, and Urby takes it coast to coast,” Golden said. “We end up winning that segment 2-0. If we let him hold for the last shot, we're never gonna have a chance to score.”

One of the things that helped Scott Stricklin make the decision to hire Golden three years ago was his ability to apply the analytics to put his teams in winning situations. The analytics don’t always work. Some coaches pay very little attention to them and do just fine.

Coaches like Golden integrate the analytics into the decision making process to give their teams an edge. In the case of that final play, it was only two points in an already blowout game, but what if Oklahoma had rallied? What if the Sooners had come back to turn an embarrassing defeat into a white knuckles finish?

Those two points would have been crucial. That’s how Golden’s mind works. How many coaches play the percentages to the same degree as Golden?

“I’d say, not a lot, probably,” Golden said.

The analytics have helped the Gators to the No. 2 ranking in the country. They’ve helped Golden maneuver his team through an unprecedented rash of injuries that have seen the Gators minus at least one starter for five consecutive games. Denzil Aberdeen has started five straight games, one in place of Walter Clayton (Vanderbilt game), the last four for Alijah Martin. Martin will be back in the lineup against LSU with Aberdeen coming off the bench once again.

Alex Condon, who sprained an ankle 30 seconds into Florida’s road win over Mississippi State, has missed the last two games completely. His place in the lineup has been taken by Thomas Haugh. Haugh will start again against LSU, but there is a chance Condon will be available. Backup big guy Sam Alexis, who was also injured in the Mississippi State game, is definitely unavailable.

“Alex is doing great, to be honest,” Golden said. “He's moving around really, really well. Tomorrow night's not out of the question. I think it's probably more of a longer shot, but it's definitely not out of the question, so we'll see how he does in practice today. He'll probably receive a doubtful or questionable tag, depending on how practice goes. Sam's a little further behind. He'll be out tomorrow night. With that being said, he's still progressing, which is great, but Condo is ahead of Sam right now.”

In Condon is unable to answer the bell, the Gators will be going with a 3-man rotation of big guys (Haugh, Rueben Chinyelu and Micah Handlogten) for the third straight game. With three bigs instead of four, it does change who Golden has on the floor at the same time. He prefers three perimeter guys with two bigs.

Against Oklahoma, there were stretches when Haugh played on the perimeter with Chinyelu or Handlogten the only big guy playing in the paint. Other times, Will Richard (6-4) slid down from the perimeter to play as the second big guy.  

“Without Condo, we really only have three healthy big guys,” Golden said. “So, while we want to play with our three out, two in identity in our early game action, at the same time, we played 20 minutes the other night with four out, where we haven't played that way a lot this year. In fact, we haven't played that way at all, really. It's a credit to our guys, specifically Alijah and Will, that we were able to function that well on that end last game.”

Anticipated starting lineups

No. 2 FLORIDA (23-3, 10-3 SEC): Thomas Haugh (6-9, 215, SO); Rueben Chinyelu (6-10, 255, SO); Will Richard (6-4, 2-6, SR); Alijah Martin (6-2, 195, GR); Walter Clayton Jr. (6-2, 195, SR)

LSU (14-12, 3-10 SEC): Daimion Collins (6-9, 200, JR); Dji Bailey (6-5, 195, SR); Vyctorius Miller (6-5, 185, FR); Curtis Givens III (6-3, 185, FR); Cam Carter (6-3, 190, SR)

SEC BASKETBALL

Saturday’s games

No. 2 FLORIDA (23-3, 10-3 SEC) at LSU (14-12, 3-10 SEC)

Georgia (16-10, 4-9 SEC) at No. 1 Auburn (24-2, 12-1 SEC)

No. 17 Kentucky (18-8, 7-6 SEC) at No. 4 Alabama (21-5, 10-3 SEC)

No. 6 Tennessee (21-5, 8-5 SEC) at No. 7 Texas A&M (20-6, 9-4 SEC)

No. 15 Missouri (20-6, 9-4 SEC) at Arkansas (15-11, 4-9 SEC)

No. 21 Mississippi State (19-7, 7-6 SEC) at Oklahoma (16-10, 3-10 SEC)

No. 24 Ole Miss (19-7, 8-5 SEC) at Vanderbilt (17-9, 5-8 SEC)

Texas (16-10, 5-8 SEC) at South Carolina (10-16, 0-13 SEC)