How many wins does Billy Napier need to remain gainfully employed?

(Photo by Chris Spears)

Day three in the aftermath of South Florida’s Super Bowl win over the Gators at The Swamp began with a multitude of phone calls and text messages, all of them calling for Billy Napier’s tenure as the football at the University of Florida to be brought to a merciful conclusion. Make no mistake about it, this was South Florida’s Super Bowl, the most important game in school history. It might have been the most important game in Billy Napier’s tenure as the football coach at the University of Florida because his margin for error shrunk to something close to microscopic proportions.

Not many in the Gator Nation believe Napier will be around to coach the Gators much longer. One caller, who believes Napier should have been canned within the hour after the Gators lost to South Florida, quoted Jeremy Foley to me: “What must be done eventually must be done immediately.”

Two games into a 12-game schedule? Shouldn’t Napier be given an opportunity to dig his way out of the hole he’s dug for himself? There are 10 games remaining on the Florida schedule. What if Billy lights a fire under the Gators and they go on a tear? Impossible, you say? Well, take a look at what Marcus Freeman did at Notre Dame last year. The Irish inexplicably lost to Northern Illinois in game two. Irish fans clutched their pearls, screamed bloody murder and called for Freeman to be tar and feathered. In response, Freeman and the Irish went on a 12-game win streak that got them to the national championship game where they lost to Ohio State.

Is it possible that the loss to South Florida was an aberration? Did the Bulls play 60 minutes on an adrenalin high while the Gators were busy looking ahead to 3^rd-ranked LSU, who the Gators play Saturday (7:30 p.m., ABC) in Baton Rouge? Certainly South Florida played an entire game with a fire burning in their bellies while the Gators played like a team that took football lessons online and the internet crashed a couple of pages past the introduction.

You might need military trained bloodhounds to sniff out anyone who thinks the Florida Gators (1-1) have a chance to win in Baton Rouge, but obviously not everyone in Las Vegas is convinced the Gators are sure to absorb a loss. LSU is only a 7.5-point favorite, which is rather slim given the home field advantage of Tiger Stadium. Either the oddsmakers don’t trust LSU or else they think we haven’t seen the best version of the Gators.

What if the Gators played down to the competition in weeks one and two? What if they simply need the motivation of playing a ranked team instead of one from D1AA and another from the Group of Five?  

The national media has already abandoned Florida’s chances to have a good season. Would they still think so if the Gators leave Baton Rouge Saturday night with a win over LSU? Would the Florida fan base regain its confidence in Napier? During the bombardment of negativity, I was asked when I will join the majority of Gators demanding that athletic director Scott Stricklin pull the plug on the coach so many of them call Sun Belt Billy? You know … good enough to win at a school like Louisiana in a Group of Five conference like the Sun Belt but not good enough to win at a place like Florida in the Southeastern Conference.

The loss to South Florida is perceived by so many as Billy Napier’s last straw. Through 40 games he’s 20-20 with far too many losses in games that were winnable. Eight of the 20 losses are by a touchdown or less, which has the Gator Nation pulling its hair out. This is Florida, which has won three national championships. From 1990-2010 Florida won more football games (210) than any Division I team in the country, 18 more than Florida State, 19 more than Miami and 24 more than Georgia. Florida averaged 10 wins per season from 1990-2010 and never endured a losing season. Since 2011, Florida has won only 106 games, 67 fewer than Alabama. The Gators have had five losing seasons in the last 15 years.

Napier is Florida’s fifth coach since Urban Meyer resigned in 2010. Everybody agrees that you would be hard pressed to find a finer person who cares more about his players, coaches, staff and the University of Florida. Nearly every person who called or texted since the South Florida loss has commented about the goodness they see in Napier, but they point out he’s paid to win football games and he’s not getting it done.

Here are three comments that came in:

1. “This is not a social experiment. Billy is turning the Gators into a Boy Scout troop. He was hired to win football games.”

2. I was reminded of my long standing belief that college football championship teams are made up of a handful of Boy Scouts and the rest borderline psychopaths: “Too many Boy Scouts, not enough psychopaths on this team.”

3. “He’s 20-20 so far. We’re paying him a million dollars a win. He’s a nice guy and he’s got nice players. Too nice to win championships.”

There are 10 games remaining on the schedule. Although eight of the 10 teams are nationally ranked, there isn’t a single team the Gators can’t beat. By the same token, there isn’t a single team on the schedule incapable of beating the Gators.

What would it take for Napier to keep his job? Eight or nine wins would certainly do it and so would a 7-3 record the rest of the way. A 7-3 record would result in an 8-4 mark, a game better than last year against a schedule that’s more difficult. How about 6-4? That’s still 7-5. Would Scott Stricklin make Napier walk the plank with a winning record?

What also is the point of no return? The next four games are at No. 3 LSU, at No. 5 Miami, home against No. 7 Texas and at No. 16 Texas A&M. General consensus is an 0-4 mark will leave Stricklin with no choice but to fire Napier. How about 1-3?

Firing Napier would only set a number of new problems in motion because firing a coach is not that easy. For example, who would be the interim head coach? Ron Roberts is the only assistant coach with head coaching experience and there are reports he’s not universally loved by his players? Who would call the plays? Russ Callaway (tight ends) has done it, but wide receivers coach Billy Gonzales probably knows the offense better. Who would hold the team together and assure them that they won’t lose their NIL money?

More important, does Scott Stricklin have the money lined up to buy out Napier’s contract? The buyout right now would be $22 million with half due within 30 days, the other half paid incrementally. That’s just the beginning since hiring a new coach would most likely require buyout money, plus a ton of money to pay for hiring new assistants and staff, plus moving expenses. It’s at least a $20 million proposition to fire one coach and hire another, plus Stricklin would be asking people to double dip into their wallets since he already asks them for NIL and booster money.

That brings us to who would Florida hire? Some top names might not want to come to a school that has run through five head coaches in 15 years without an outrageous contract. Here are some of the names fans have suggested: Jon Gruden (currently unemployed); Lane Kiffin (Ole Miss head coach, $4 million buyout); Jedd Fisch (Washington head coach, Florida alum, worked for Spurrier, $10 million buyout); Glenn Schumann (Georgia, defensive coordinator); Shane Beamer (South Carolina head coach, former Spurrier assistant, $5 million buyout); Joey McGuire (Texas Tech head coach, $2.8 million buyout); Jon Sumrall (Tulane head coach); Dan Lanning (Oregon head coach, $20 million buyout); Eli Drinkwitz (Missouri head coach, $4 million buyout); Alex Golesh (South Florida head coach, $3 million buyout); Ryan Silverfield (Memphis head coach, Bolles grad and former Bolles assistant, $2 million buyout).

The ultimate darkhorse candidates: Deion Sanders (head coach, Colorado, $8 million buyout); Jimbo Fisher (currently unemployed).

From my personal standpoint, here would be my top five candidates:

1. Lane Kiffin, Ole Miss: I thought he should have been Florida’s top choice after Mullen was canned. At Florida he could recruit players that wouldn’t dream of going to Ole Miss. He’s so good in the portal he could make up quickly any player losses from Napier’s dismissal. Coach O would be one of his assistants. Career record 107-52, 46-18 at Ole Miss. He’s 50 years old.

2. Eli Drinkwitz, Missouri: Nobody does more with less. Put him in a place where there is talent to recruit and he could be amazing. Good guy. Offensive genius whose Missouri teams have gone to five straight bowl games and won 21 games the last two years. Career record 52-25, 40-24 at Missouri. He’s 42 years old.

3. Jimbo Fisher: I know, I know. Jimbo. I’m convinced no one will win big in Aggieland, but he left with $75 million so he’s financially set and money won’t be as big a deal. He’s 128-48 as a head coach, has coached a Heisman winner and won a national championship. He knows the state and is an outstanding recruiter. He’s 60 years old.

4. Ryan Silverfield, Memphis: Jacksonville guy who played at Bolles and coached for Corky Rogers. Six straight bowl games at Memphis. Former NFL assistant. His teams score points and move the football. Memphis has won 21 games the last two years. Career record 44-21. He’s 45 years old.

5. Alex Golesh, South Florida: He’s 41 years old, just beat the Gators and has taken South Florida to two bowls in his first two years as a head coach. He knows Florida and also the SEC from his time as Josh Heupel’s offensive coordinator at Tennessee. He’s 16-12 as a head coach.