How much would Emmitt or Tebow have been worth in NIL money?

A few thoughts to jump start your Tuesday morning:

In 1930, Babe Ruth signed a 2-year contract with the New York Yankees that paid him $80,000 a year. This was during the Great Depression so it was an astounding amount of money. When Ruth was told he was being paid more money than President Herbert Hoover, it was reported that Babe replied, “I had a better year than him.”

Back in 1977, Reggie Jackson signed a 5-year free agent deal with the New York Yankees worth a reported $700,000 a year, a rather hefty sum during a time when inflation and interest rates sent home mortgage rates through the roof. These days and times there are college athletes making much more than $700,000 of NIL deals. Even before he had taken a college football snap, Tennessee quarterback Nico Iamaleava got an NIL deal worth $8 million.  

There are unsubstantiated rumors that the NIL deal for Florida quarterback Graham Mertz is well north of $1 million and that heir to the throne DJ Lagway has a deal that will escalate beyond whatever Mertz makes once Mertz is plying his trade in the No Fun League. Given the numbers we’re hearing about what athletes are getting in the transfer portal, $1 million for a quarterback seems to be on the low end of things.  

During the day on Monday, a text came in asking a guesstimate of what the following Gators would have made in NIL money: Emmitt Smith, Shane Matthews, Danny Wuerffel, Tim Tebow, Percy Harvin, Joakim Noah and Al Horford. That’s a complicated question, best asked of an economist who can apply monetary value to the time frames in question.

Take Emmitt Smith, for example. His first year at UF was 1987 when the Gators were coming off one of the most severe probations in NCAA history. During his three years at UF, the Gators were 20-16. There was no transfer portal to drive prices up and certainly no NIL money but if there had been would Emmitt Smith have even come to Florida in the first place? Could Florida have afforded to keep him?  

Shane Matthews was the 6th-string quarterback Emmitt’s final year at UF in 1989. He has said that transferring was never a possibility, a good thing since his career blossomed with the arrival of Steve Spurrier in 1990. Shane was the SEC Player of the Year in 1990-91. He could have commanded a big NIL deal with the threat of entering the No Fun League Draft after the 1991 season.

Wuerffel was the Heisman runner-up in 1995, the ideal time to cash in prior to Florida’s 1996 national championship season in which he won the Heisman. Tebow was already a folk hero in the state even before he arrived at UF. After winning the 2007 Heisman Florida boosters certainly would have paid up to keep him and there would have been no shortage of corporations wishing to have his endorsement.  Percy? Could Florida have outbid Pete Carroll and Southern Cal for him?

After leading Florida to the 2006 NCAA basketball championship, Noah and Horford could have made millions in NIL money. They could have bolted for the NBA and made millions, but they came back for a second NCAA title in 2007.

So, taking all things into consideration with the thought that all these guys would have been Gators anyway, here is what I believe they would have gotten based on 2024 monetary values:

Emmitt Smith: Florida’s record was so average and he didn’t gain 1,000 yards in 1988 in an offense nicknamed "The Amedee-ville Horror." Perhaps $500,000 in 1989.

Shane Matthews: After the 1991 season in which the Gators won the SEC title and posted their first 10-win season in school history, Shane would have cashed in. $1,000,000.

Danny Wuerffel: Great player, yes, average marketability after the Gators were destroyed by Nebraska in the 1995 national championship game. $700,000.

Tim Tebow: The money would have escalated every year, but especially after the 2008 national championship season. Since the Gators were expected to win the 2009 national title, $2,000,000.

Percy Harvin: He was the most electric player in college football. Left for the NFL after the 2008 national championship so 2009 would have been his cash-in season. $700,000 because he missed games with injuries in 2007 and wasn't around to cash out big in 2009.

Joakim Noah: He was the most charismatic player in all of college basketball. After winning MVP of the 2006 NCAA Tournament, he could have commanded Tebow money. $2,000,000.

Al Horford: Every bit as important as Noah, but not nearly as flamboyant. $1,000,000.

Could Napier land two from the portal this week?

There is a very real possibility that Cormani McClain, the former 5-star corner from Lakeland, is going to be playing football at the University of Florida in the fall. There was a time when McClain was thought to be a mortal lock for the Gators, but he wavered, committed to Miami and then stiffed the Hurricanes to go play for Deion Sanders at Colorado. One season in which he played in nine games with 13 tackles was apparently all the Boulder, Colorado McClain could stand.

After just a couple of weeks in the transfer portal, Florida has emerged as the odds-on favorite to land McClain, but with a catch. From all reports, if he decides to be a Gator he will join the team as a walk-on. He has an agent and apparently all parties believe that the cost of a scholarship to UF will be more than made up by NIL money. Blake Alderman of the Florida 247Sports site is reporting that McClain, his mother and his agent will be spending some time this week at UF before a final decision is made.

There is also a 247Sports report that Florida could land Arizona State wide receiver transfer Elijhah Badger, whose career numbers at ASU are 142 catches for 1,640 yards and 10 touchdowns. In 2023, Badger caught 65 passes for 713 yards and three touchdowns. In 2020 and 2021, Badger was teammates with Ricky Pearsall, who transferred to Florida and parlayed that move into a first round selection by the San Francisco 49ers. That move turned out well for Pearsall and it would seem logical that Badger and Pearsall have been talking. Given that Pearsall and Graham Mertz are bestest buds, it would also seem logical that Florida has an inside track on landing another experienced wide receiver for an offense that could be downright explosive in 2024.

One other thing to consider: His last name is Badger. Mertz transferred to Florida after spending four years as a Wisconsin Badger. Also, wide receiver Chimere Dike transferred to Florida in the spring. He, too, is a former Wisconsin Badger.

Coincidence?

Meanwhile at Amelia Island

The Atlantic Coast Conference, which is in a steel cage death match of the legal variety with Florida State and Clemson, got a visit Monday from Charlie Baker, who was there to tout a possible deal with the Congress designed to head off at the pass an anti-trust lawsuit. Baker is trying to convince the ACC presidents that this deal, which will cost something like $3 billion over 10 years, is necessary for the survival of college sports. At least that’s what the NCAA, in its infinite wisdom, is trying to sell to the ACC, SEC, Big Ten and Big 12.

The deal, which would go into effect in 2025, is a revenue sharing model designed to give the power conference teams $20 million a year each to spread among its athletes and to pay off athletes who competed prior to the advent of NIL. Considering some of the anti-trust suits out there demanding 50 percent of the revenue from college athletics, the NCAA model seems like a band-aid when a tourniquet is required.

Athletes are going to be compensated but there are so many complications. Football, for example, is the cash cow but Title IX demands equality. So, can football players get the bulk of the revenue while the non-revenue – particularly women’s sports – take a lesser amount?

The best idea out there is to ditch the NCAA completely and start all over again with a brand new organization that makes athletes employees. Athletes could organize and negotiate collective bargaining agreements with conferences, which would most likely want a salary cap.

Baker’s visit might have sucked the wind out of the ACC room on Monday, but starting today, there will be plenty of discussion about Florida State and Clemson, which have lawsuits against the ACC in an attempt to gain a release from the grant of rights contract with ESPN. The ESPN contract runs through 2036.

FSU and Clemson are looking at the amount of money that the SEC and Big Ten are going to be making from their media rights deals, which dwarfs the ACC money. If economic models are to be believed, both the SEC and Big Ten schools will be making more than $100,000,000 a year from their media rights deals. The ACC schools will be receiving half that.

FSU and Clemson want out because they see their SEC brethren gaining huge competitive advantages due to all the money. They are of the opinion that either the Southeastern Conference or the Big Ten would welcome them with open arms.

Both seem willing to take the chance that they will have a place to go if they are able to secede, but given the leadership at the top of both the SEC and Big Ten, it’s a very risky proposition for the following reasons:

(1) Neither Clemson nor FSU will expand either the SEC or Big Ten television footprint. The SEC is already in South Carolina and Florida and neither Clemson nor FSU move the television needle.

(2) The SEC expands to 16 teams by adding Texas and Oklahoma this year. The league will move to a 9-game football scheduling model either in 2025 or 2026 that will ensure every team plays every other team home and home every four years. It is a perfect scheduling model that is already being put in place for basketball starting this season. SEC commissioner Greg Sankey is perfectly content with a 16-team league. The only expansion he would be willing to rubber stamp is if Notre Dame decided to join a league.

(3) The Big Ten has expanded to 18 teams with the additions of Southern Cal, UCLA, Oregon and Washington. If the Big Ten had wanted to expand further it would have added Stanford and California, which ironically will be joining ACC this year.  Further, 17 of the 18 Big Ten schools are members of the American Association of Universities. Neither Clemson nor FSU are members. Call the Big Ten snooty if you will, but the league takes that very seriously.

So who wants Clemson and FSU? The Big 12 would love to have them, but that would mean making less money than they make with the ACC.

From all reports, the ACC is more than willing to call the bluff of Clemson and FSU and, if necessary, tie them up in court for years. That is yet another reason why it is unlikely they will be leaving the ACC anytime soon.

ONE FINAL PITHY THOUGHT: Caitlyn Clark has already lifted women’s college basketball to unprecedented heights when it comes to television viewership. The WNBA is counting on Clark to do the same thing. She is already branded as a superstar even though the Indiana Fever, which selected her with the first pick in the WNBA Draft, has yet to play anything more than an exhibition game.

For Caitlyn Clark to transform the WNBA into must see television, she is going to have to be a superstar from day one and that is going to be very difficult. Initially, there will be crowds and television coverage, but if Clark’s game doesn’t elevate to the level of the WNBA, which has no shortage of very good players who play defense better than anything or anyone Clark saw in college, how long before Clark is no longer must-see TV?

There is one other matter to consider. Whether fair or unfair, Caitlyn Clark is being asked to take the entire WNBA on her shoulders and carry it to new heights. That’s a lot of pressure. The hope here is that she’s more than capable of handling it.