If Napier is going to get another year it's time to declare it

Billy Napier interviewed at halftime of Florida-Georgia by Jeff Cardozo (Gator Bait Photo by Chris Spears)

A few thoughts to jump start your Monday morning:

Florida lost to Georgia Saturday. No surprise there. Georgia was favored by 14.5 points, so by losing 34-20 the Gators probably cost a slew of Georgia fans some cash. Some might think of that as Florida’s only victory of the weekend considering the number of injuries suffered during the game. Quarterback DJ Lagway seems likely to miss at least a couple of games although Billy Napier did say he believes it is possible his budding superstar freshman could return later in the season. We’ll have to wait and see how many of the others who left the game will be available in the weeks ahead, but most notably for Saturday’s game with No. 5 Texas (7-1, 5-1 SEC). In anticpation of the Gators playing without Lagway and with a patchwork secondary, the opening line from Las Vegas favors the Longhorns by 21.5 points.

For a coach who’s been in survival mode even before the season began, the potential of playing the final four games of the season with the backup to the backup QB starting can’t be a relishing thought. Napier seems to be in stiff upper lip mode even when things are going well. His expression hardly changed post game Saturday when asked about the significance of the Lagway injury. He dialed up his next man up response and his lip never looked stiffer.

So how do the Gators make it through the last four weeks in the event Lagway can’t come back? Lagway was supposed to be the insurance and understudy to Graham Mertz, but now Mertz is gone and so is Lagway, leaving to walk-on and Yale transfer Aidan Warner and Colorado State transfer Clay Millen, a starter in 2022 but benched after one game in 2023 never to see the field again. Millen is the son of former NFL quarterback Hugh Millen.

We saw Warner throw a couple of SCUDS against Georgia although he did  hit Chimere Dike for a clutch 8-yard gain in traffic to set up a field goal at the end of the first half and hit Elijhah Badger deep downfield on a 26-yard gain to kickstart the drive that led to Florida’s game-tying touchdown in the fourth quarter. Still, two passes aren’t exactly going to strike fear in opposing defenses, especially the one they will see in Austin Saturday. Texas has the top-ranked defense in the country. The Longhorns have allowed only three TDPs all year, picked off 12 passes and allowed opponents an average of just 4.6 yards per attempt.

Millen began his career at Nevada and transferred to Colorado State in 2022 when Jay Norvell left Nevada for the CSU job. He threw for 1,910 yards and 10 touchdowns in 2022 at Colorado State, then was benched after throwing for 110 yards and an interception in a blowout opening game loss to Washington State in 2023.

The big question not just for this week but the remainder of November is can Napier survive if the Gators are unable to win another game? That has to be a possibility given the situation at quarterback combined with all the other injuries. Or, has the improvement the Gators showed in the five games after the loss to the Aggies enough to sway the administration and boosters that given a healthy roster Napier might put the Gators back on the college football map as a championship contender?

Patience has never been a long suit of Florida fans or boosters spoiled by the combined three national championships, eight SEC championships and 187-37-1 record posted during the 17 years of Steve Spurrier and Urban Meyer. Napier believes the Gators are on the verge of becoming relevant again. With more than 35 players returning who have starting experience and plenty who have seen significant action as reserves, Florida could be very, very good.

So, will Napier be given one more year or will he become the fifth Florida coach since 2001 who didn’t get to year four before he was fired? If the administration and boosters are in accord that Napier should get one more year, then something needs to be said now to give him a chance to salvage his recruiting class.

Associated Press top 25: 1. Oregon 9-0; 2. Georgia 7-1; 3. Ohio State 7-1; 4. Miami 9-0; 5. Texas 7-1; 6. Penn State 7-1; 7. Tennessee 7-1; 8. Indiana 9-0; 9. BYU 8-0; 10. Notre Dame 7-1; 11. Alabama 6-2; 12. Boise State 7-1; 13. SMU 8-1; 14. LSU 6-2; 15. Texas A&M 7-2; 16. Ole Miss 7-2; 17. Iowa State 7-1; 18. Army 8-0; 19. Clemson 6-2; 20. Washington State 7-1; 21. Colorado 6-2; 22. Kansas State 7-2; 23. Pittsburgh 7-1; 24. Vanderbilt 6-3; 25. Louisville 6-3

AFCA Coaches top 25: 1. Oregon 9-0; 2. Georgia 7-1; 3. Ohio State 7-1; 4. Miami 9-0; 5. Texas 7-1; 6. Tennessee 7-1; 7. Penn State 7-1; 8. Notre Dame 7-1; 9. BYU 8-0; 10. Indiana 9-0; 11. Alabama 6-2; 12. Ole Miss 7-2; 13. LSU 6-2; 14. Boise State 7-1; 15. SMU 8-1; 16. Texas A&M 7-2; 17. Clemson 6-2; 18. Iowa State 7-1; 19. Army 8-0; 20. Washington State 7-1; 21. Kansas State 7-2; 22. Missouri 6-2; 23. Pittsburgh 7-1; 24. Colorado 6-2; 25. Vanderbilt 6-3

SEC FOOTBALL

No. 11 Alabama (6-2, 3-2 SEC): The Crimson Tide goes to LSU for a playoff elimination game. Winner still has a good shot, loser eliminated from contention. Next: at No. 14 LSU (6-2, 3-1 SEC)

Arkansas (5-4, 3-3 SEC): The Razorbacks gave up a whopping 694 yards total and 562 through the air in their 63-31 loss to Ole Miss. Next: Open

Auburn (3-6, 1-5 SEC): One week after lighting up Kentucky for 278 yards, Jarquez Hunter was held to 50 by Vanderbilt. Hunter is second in the SEC with 913 rushing yards. Next: Open

No. 2 Georgia (7-1, 5-1 SEC): Carson Beck, who began the year as the Heisman favorite, has thrown eight interceptions in his last three games and 11 for the season. He threw only six in 14 games last year. Next: at No. 16 Ole Miss (7-2, 3-2 SEC)

Kentucky (3-6, 1-6 SEC): The Wildcats are dead last in the SEC and No. 123 nationally in total offense at 313.7 yards per game. Their 360 yards against Tennessee were the most they have gained against an SEC team this year.  Kentucky has to win their next three games to keep its streak of eight consecutive bowl seasons alive. Next: Open

No. 14 LSU (6-2, 3-1 SEC): Alabama is a 2.5-point favorite for Saturday night’s showdown in Tiger Stadium ... DL Jason Guillory, done for the season wtih a torn Achilles, plans to return for 2025. Next: No. 11 Alabama (6-2, 3-2 SEC)

Mississippi State (2-7, 0-6 SEC): Since taking over at quarterback, true freshman Michael Van Buren Jr. has thrown for 1,323 yards and nine touchdowns. Next: at No. 7 Tennessee (7-1, 4-1 SEC)

Missouri (6-2, 2-2 SEC): It’s a perfect 7-for-7 for Missouri when it comes to home sellouts for 2024. Mizzou sold the final tickets for Oklahoma and the season finale with Arkansas to close things out. Next: Oklahoma (5-4, 1-4 SEC)

Oklahoma (5-4, 1-4 SEC): Jackson Arnold, back in the starting role at QB, threw for two touchdowns and ran for another in the win over Maine. Next: at Missouri (6-2, 1-2 SEC)

No. 16 Ole Miss (7-2, 3-2 SEC): In their win over Arkansas, wide receiver Jordan Watkins caught eight passes for 254 yards and five touchdowns. The Rebels lead the SEC and rank second nationally in total offense (555.4 yards per game) and lead the nation in sacks (41). Former Gator Princely Umanmielen has 7.5 sacks in eight games, which is more than he had in 12 games last year at Florida. Next: No. 2 Georgia (7-1, 5-1 SEC)

South Carolina (5-3, 3-3 SEC): LaNorris Sellers had his best game of the year when the Gamecocks upset Texas A&M, throwing for 244 yards and two touchdowns while running for 106 and another TD. Next: at No. 24 Vanderbilt (6-3, 3-2 SEC)

No. 7 Tennessee (7-1, 4-1 SEC): Dylan Sampson has run for an SEC-best 980 yards and 19 touchdowns this season. The Vols lead the SEC in rushing with 234.5 yards per game. Next: Mississippi State (2-7, 0-6 SEC)

No. 5 Texas (7-1, 5-1 SEC): Texas leads the nation in total defense, giving up just 241.3 yards per game. The Longhorns allow only 3.81 yards per play. They are giving up only 11.5 points per game, which ranks second nationally. Next: FLORIDA (4-4, 2-3 SEC)

No. 15 Texas A&M (7-2, 5-1 SEC): The Aggies were torched for 530 yards by South Carolina, 286 on the ground and 244 through the air, their worst defensive effort of the season. Next: Open

No. 24 Vanderbilt (6-3, 3-2 SEC): The Commodores keep finding ways to win even though they struggle offensively (337.7 yards per game). Diego Pavia has thrown 15 touchdown passes (only 3 picks) and run for 563 yards and four touchdowns. Next: South Carolina (5-3, 3-3 SEC)

AROUND THE STATE

Florida Atlantic (2-6, 0-4 American): The Owls have lost three in a row and four of their last five, giving up more than 490 yards per game in the losses.  Next: at East Carolina (4-4, 2-2 American)

Florida International (2-3, 0-6 Conference USA): The Panthers can’t seem to stop the run, bad news considering they’ll play at Jacksonville State in a couple of weeks. Jax State is averaging 269.63 yards per game on the ground. Next: Open

Florida State (1-7, 1-8 ACC): As bad as the Seminoles have been offensively, they hit rock bottom against North Carolina, gaining only 201 yards. The Seminoles are next to last nationally in rushing offense, just 76.11 yards per game. Next: at No. 10 Notre Dame (7-1)

No. 4 Miami (9-0, 5-0 ACC): With three games to go in the regular season, Cam Ward has thrown for 3,129 yards and a nation-leading 29 touchdown passes. In the win over Duke he threw for 400 yards and five touchdowns. Next: at Georgia Tech (5-4, 3-3 ACC)

South Florida (4-4, 2-4 American): The Bulls have regained their offensive mojo to win their last two games. They put up 525 yards and 44 points oin their win over Florida Atlantic. Next: Navy (6-2, 4-1 American)

UCF (4-5, 2-4 Big 12): UCF finally has found a quarterback who can throw the ball accurately. Freshman Dylan Rizk lit up Arizona for 294 yards and three touchdowns in his first career start. He added another 55 yards on the ground as the Knights scored their most impressive win of the year, 56-12. Next: at Arizona State (6-2, 3-2 Big 12)

ONE FINAL PITHY THOUGHT: After a weekend of surprises in which several playoff contenders bit the dust, here is a revised look at College Football Playoff contenders and pretenders. The first playoff poll comes out this week.

SEC

Contenders: No. 2 Georgia (7-1); No. 5 Texas (7-1); No. 7 Tennessee (7-1); No. 11 Alabama (6-2); No. 14 LSU ( 6-2); No. 15 Texas A&M (7-2); No. 16 Ole Miss (7-2)

Pretenders: Missouri (6-2); Vanderbilt (6-3)

Big Ten

Contenders: No. 1 Oregon (9-0); No. 3 Ohio State (7-1); No. 6 Penn State (7-1); No. 8 Indiana (9-0)

Pretenders: Illinois (6-3); Iowa (6-3); Minnesota (6-3)

ACC

Contenders: No. 4 Miami (9-0); No. 13 SMU; No. 19 Clemson (6-2); No. 23 Pittsburgh (7-1)

Pretenders: No. 25 Louisville (6-3); Syracuse (6-2)

Big 12

Contenders: No. 9 BYU (9-0); No. 17 Iowa State (7-1); No. 21 Colorado

Pretenders: No. 22 Kansas State (7-2); Texas Tech 6-3

Independents/Pac-2

Contenders: No. 8 Notre Dame (7-1); No. 20 Washington State (7-1)

American

Contenders: No. 18 Army (8-0); Tulane (7-2)

Pretenders: Navy (6-2); Memphis (6-2)

Mountain West

Contender: No. 12 Boise State (7-1)

Pretender: UNLV (6-2)

Sun Belt

Contender: Louisiana (7-1)

Pretender: Georgia Southern (6-3)

MAC

Contenders: None

Conference USA

Contender: Western Kentucky (6-2)

Pretender: Sam Houston (7-2)