If the SEC and ACC were a stock market who to buy, who to sell?

Montrell Johnson Jr. (2) is one reason why Florida's stock should be bought in 2024 (Photo by Chris Spears)

As fall camp approaches rapidly, it’s time to think of both the Southeastern Conference and Atlantic Coast Conference the way we would think of buying and selling stocks. Which teams promise good enough returns to buy? And, which ones should be sold while the selling is good.

The SEC Stock Market: Buy or Sell

Alabama: Kalen DeBoer is 104-12 for his head coaching career. At Alabama he will coach better players than he’s ever had before, one of whom is QB Jalen Milroe, who should be substantially better with Nick Sheridan calling the plays. The defense should be better. It’s hard to imagine Bama winning fewer than 10 games. Buy.

Arkansas: Much is being made of Bobby Petrino coming aboard as the offensive coordinator but even if he improves the offense the Hogs still have to stop people. Losing MLB Chris Paul to Ole Miss was a dagger. Sam Pittman needs six wins against a schedule that includes Auburn, Tennessee, LSU, Ole Miss, Texas and Missouri. Sell.

Auburn: It would be a lot easier to like Auburn’s chances of substantial improvement if Payton Thorne weren’t back for another year at QB. Not much speed at wide receiver, three new starters on the O-line and four new starters in the secondary. Auburn is treading water. Sell.

FLORIDA: The schedule is brutal, particularly on the back end but the Gators are more experienced and only one QB in Division I has more starts than Graham Mertz’s 43. The Gators have the best running back in the SEC in Montrell Johnson Jr. The O-line has to be better than last year (39 sacks allowed). The Gators have to pressure the passer if the secondary is to be improved. If the Gators get to the Georgia game with five or six wins, they could be very dangerous in November. Buy.

Georgia: Everybody on the planet seems to think Georgia will win its third national championship in four years, but the Bulldogs have to travel to Alabama, Texas and Ole Miss. Georgia has won exactly one game on the road against a top 10 ranked opponent since 2018. The schedule says sell but the talent level says buy. Buy.

Kentucky: Kentucky has gone to eight straight bowl games but hasn’t sniffed Atlanta yet and won’t this year either. Mark Stoops has to contend with a schedule that includes Georgia and roadies to Ole Miss, Florida, Tennessee and Texas. The QB (Brock Vadagriff) has never started an SEC game. The defense can’t be good enough for UK to contend. Sell.

LSU: There is no Jayden Daniels to do magical things with the ball in his hands, pass catchers Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr. are gone and RB Logan Diggs transferred to Ole Miss. Garrett Nussmeier won’t make people forget Daniels. The defense has a new coordinator but it will still suck. The Tigers are a 7-8 win team at best. Sell.

Mississippi State: Jeff Lebby should have held out for another year rather than take the Mississippi State gig for his first coaching job. Games three through six are Florida, (at) Texas, (at) Georgia and Texas A&M. The Bulldogs finish (at) Tennessee, Missouri and (at) Ole Miss. Sell.

Missouri: Mizzou has the easiest schedule in the SEC (62nd nationally). The only tough roadies are Texas A&M and Alabama. The first four games are all home with Murray State, Buffalo, Boston College and Vanderbilt. The offense will be prolific with Brady Cook throwing to Luther Burden III. Georgia State transfer Marcus Carroll will make people forget about Cody Shrader. The defense won’t be as good but it won’t have to be. Buy.

Oklahoma: Brent Venables made a name for himself as the defensive coordinator at Clemson when the Tigers won two national championships in three years. If the Sooners are to win eight or so games their first year in the SEC it will have to be due to a defense that returns 11 of last year’s top 13 tacklers. The new QB is Jackson Arnold, long on promise, short on experience. Can he avoid losing games while learning how to win in the SEC? The schedule features Tennessee and Alabama at home, roadies with Ole Miss, Mizzou and LSU plus Texas in Dallas. Sell.  

Ole Miss: For years, everyone has wondered what would happen if Lane Kiffin ever got a defense. Well, he’s got one now and he’s got an offensive unit that will light people up. Jaxson Dart will throw to the best set of wide receivers in the country and the Rebels have four stud running backs. The only tough road game is at LSU. Georgia comes to Oxford. Buy.

South Carolina: For South Carolina to come anywhere close to break even Rocket Sanders will have to run the ball like he did in 2022 at Arkansas. If he doesn’t it will be a really long year. The QBs are LaNorris Sellers and Robby Ashford. Trouble. Right here in River City. Sell.

Tennessee: The folks in Knoxville are so giddy they won the NCAA baseball championship that you would think they’re favored to make the final four in the College Football Playoff. You would also think that Nico Iamaleava can rival Peyton Manning as the greatest QB in UT history. Too many holes to fill on offense and the back seven on defense is all brand new. The schedule could get the Vols to eight wins, but anything more than that will require an act of God. Sell.

Texas: One would think the SEC would reward Texas joining the SEC with a tough schedule but that’s not the case. The toughest road game will be the season finale at Texas A&M. Georgia is at home. The Longhorns return Quinn Ewers and four O-line starters and they picked up four outstanding receivers in the portal. The defense will be good enough against that schedule. Buy.

Texas A&M: Aggie fans don’t have Jimbo to kick around anymore. Now it’s Mike Elko, who won 16 games at Duke. There is a lot of difference between playing in the ACC and playing in the SEC, not to mention QB Conner Weigman has never been able to stay healthy. The defense won’t be nearly as good as it was a year ago when the Aggies were 19th nationally. The Aggies have a relatively easy schedule to navigate but two of their first three games are Notre Dame and at Florida. Sell.

Vanderbilt: Vanderbilt returns three starters on each side of the football and the schedule includes (at) Missouri, Alabama, (at) Kentucky, Texas, (at) Auburn, (at) LSU and Tennessee. Vandy went 2-10 last year. Alcorn State and Ball State are on this year’s schedule so the Commodores have a chance to match last year’s win total. The chardonnay, brie and grapes tail gate set is in for a very long season. Sell.

The ACC Stock Market: Buy or Sell

Boston College: The Eagles open the season at Florida State then travel to Missouri two weeks later. Not exactly conducive to a winning season. New coach Bill O’Brien will need a couple of years to fix the problems. Sell.

California: If Cal survives its weekend at Auburn (game two), the Golden Bears could be sneaky good. They have (at) FSU and Miami games four and five but the rest of the schedule isn’t that challenging. Fifteen starters return. Cal won’t contend but will go bowling. Buy.

Clemson: The games that should worry Dabo the most are the season opener with Georgia in Atlanta and October 5 at Florida State. The Tigers finished eighth nationally in total defense and they will be good again. The key is for QB Cade Klubnick to finally live up to the hype. If he lights it up, Clemson will be very good. Buy.

Duke: Manny Diaz resurfaces as a head coach and on November 2 he will get a chance to avenge getting fired at Miami. If Texas transfer Maalik Murphy lives up to the hype, the offense will be good. Too many questions on defense. Sell.

Florida State: The Seminoles are still crying over getting left out of the College Football Playoff a year ago. They lost all their offensive playmakers and the left guard will be former Gator Richie Leonard. The QB will be Oregon State transfer DJ Uiagalelei, giving it one last shot to prove he is a playoff caliber talent. Too many losses on defense. FSU may win the ACC but the Seminoles aren’t going to be that good. Sell.

Georgia Tech: Brent Key shocked the world with a 7-6 record a year ago. The Yellow Jackets are capable of scoring a lot of points, but they can’t stop anybody. The 2023 Gators were the reincarnation of Doomsday by comparison. The 2024 Yellow Jackets won’t be improved enough to do anything better than 7-6. Sell

Louisville: The Cardinals won 10 games last year with a good defense that offset a weak O-line that gave up too many sacks. The defense will be better. The key on offense will be protecting Texas Tech transfer QB Tyler Shough. The schedule has three tough roadies – Notre Dame, Clemson and Kentucky. Sell.

Miami: Miami will win 10 games this year but the two losses will be in state to Florida in Gainesville and Florida State at home. The Hurricanes play one of the easier schedules in the nation. If they can’t win 10 games with this schedule then they need to send Mario Cristobal packing. Buy.

North Carolina: Max Johnson has plenty of outstanding receivers to throw to and he can hand the ball off to Omarion Hampton, the best running back you’ve probably never heard of. To fix the defense, Mack Brown brought in Geoff Collins. The Tar Heels won’t have a tough game until November when they travel to FSU. Buy.

North Carolina State: HBC Dave Doeren scored one of the best transfer coups in the country when he landed former Coastal Carolina QB Grayson McCall. Losing LB Payton Wilson, the Butkus and Bednarik winner, was a killer blow to a defense that returns only three starters. After a September that includes Tennessee and (at) Clemson, it’s a very favorable schedule. Buy.

Pittsburgh: The Panthers went 3-9 last year with a rotten offense so they hired Kade Bell, son of Kerwin to spruce things up. They will score points but the defense is inexperienced. Sell.

SMU: The Mustangs step up to the ACC with a team capable of winning a lot of games. Rhett Lashlee offenses always score a lot of points and SMU has an exceptional trigger man in Preston Stone. Can the defense grow up in a hurry? That’s the big question. If the defense is good, SMU will contend. Buy.

Stanford: Stanford was bad (3-9) in the Pac-12 last year. Troy Taylor returns 15 starters from a bad offense and an abysmal defense. Taylor should be ACC coach of the year if he can win four games. Sell.

Syracuse: Former Georgia assistant Fran Brown is the new head coach. He’s got eight returning starters on offense and former Ohio State QB Kyle McCord. The Orange turned the ball over 24 times, which is why Dino Babers is no longer the head coach. The defense will take on a Georgia look minus Georgia personnel. The schedule says bowl game. Buy.

Virginia: UVa played everybody close last year but finished 3-9. Tony Elliott needs to get to a bowl game this year or he’s a goner. The September schedule is conducive to a 1-3 start. Elliott doesn’t need to invest in long term real estate in Charlottesville. Sell.

Virginia Tech: The schedule screams 10 wins. The two toughest games are at Miami and Clemson in Blacksburg. All 11 starters return on offense and eight return on defense. Buy.

Wake Forest: The Demon Deacons went 4-8 last year. If they can duplicate that record this year it will be a miracle. Last year’s offense was pathetic (104 nationally) and the defense was largely responsible for the Deacons finishing on an 0-5 run. Sell.