Imagine what Graham Mertz can do if he has time to throw the ball

A few things that have me thinking out loud on a Friday:

Imagine what Graham Mertz can do if he has time to throw: This time a year ago, Billy Napier was being ridiculed in the SEC and national media for signing Graham Mertz, perceived as a 5-star bust when he was at Wisconsin. After throwing for nearly 3,000 yards, completing better than 72 percent of his passes for 20 touchdowns and completing only three to the bad guys, so many in the media are grudgingly admitting they got it all wrong. Some have even admitted that maybe Billy Napier knows a thing or two about quarterbacks. Imagine that.

What makes Mertz’s 2023 more impressive is the fact he spent a lot of his time either on his back after getting sacked or taking one vicious hit after another while he stood in the pocket. Florida’s offensive line allowed 39 sacks a year ago, 33 when Mertz was on the receiving end of the hit. It’s a little late to be playing the what if game, but it isn’t unreasonable to think the Gators might have had a fairly good season in 2023 if the line could have gotten the job done.

So here we are a little more than 3-1/2 months from the start of the 2024 season with a schedule that is consensus the most difficult in the nation. There is room for optimism. Lots of it. While having a quarterback in his second year as the starter in an offense he doesn’t have to learn is a nice cornerstone, so is a vastly improved offensive line.

A year ago the line was a disaster from the get go. Kingsley Eguakun, who had started 26 straight games, spent most of the year hurt. Replacement Jake Slaughter started slowly but grew into Florida’s most dependable and efficient O-lineman. The guards were a disaster. There was no depth at tackle. Austin Barber played hurt until his shoulder got the best of him with a few games to go. Damieon George wanted to play tackle, which is why he left Alabama for Florida. There is a reason the people at Bama told him he should play guard. There was no depth on the outside.

Fast forward to 2024. The starting tackles coming out of spring ball were Arkansas transfer Devon Manuel and San Diego State transfer Brandon Crenshaw-Dickson. Barber and Kamryn Waites will be healthy come August so there is depth at tackle. Knijeah Harris was one guard, Slaughter the starter at center. George moved inside to right guard but he struggled. He’s got the body and feet to be good, but if he doesn’t get it done Roderick Kearney is ready to step in.

On paper the O-line is vastly improved. If they can get the job done and keep Mertz upright, Florida is going to be a very good offensive football team in 2024.

The last two scholarships will be critical for Todd Golden: With Micah Handlogten expecting to redshirt next season rather than risk coming back too early on his fractured leg, Todd Golden basically has 10 scholarship players to work with next year. There are reports trickling out of IMG Academy in Bradenton that 7-7 Olivier Rioux is intent on re-classifying to 2024 but if he’s able to jump through all the academic hoops he will be a preferred walk-on. It is thought – but unconfirmed – that if Rioux elects to stay at IMG that he will come to Florida in the 2025 class as a scholarship player. Either way, one thing certain is you can’t teach tall.

Golden needs 12 scholarship players at his disposal. Even though he prefers to work with an 8-9 man rotation, it’s important to have a full complement of scholarship bodies. After all you never know when you’re going to suffer through a rash of injuries as Texas and others found out last season. With Handlogten sidelined, Golden has four big guys and six perimeter players. He needs two more, preferably a pure point and perhaps a hybrid big guy in the 6-7 to 6-9 range who is as comfortable on the wing as he is in the post.

The Gators made the final cut for Michigan State point guard AJ Hoggard (6-3, 185, SR), who averaged 10.7 points, 3.1 rebounds and 5.2 assists per game last season. He has career averages of 10.9 points, 2.8 rebounds and 4.6 assists per game. Hoggard has five schools on his list. Florida makes the most sense but Georgia and Southern Cal are spending NIL money as if they have a press that prints money.

Florida was in the mix for Duke transfer Christian Reeves (7-1, 250, FR) but he elected to stay in the ACC, committing Thursday to Clemson. A name that has been linked to Florida for the last two or three weeks is Illinois State transfer Myles Foster (6-7, 235, SR), who averaged 12.4 points, 8.1 rebounds and 1.7 assists per game. Foster has also been linked to Tennessee, Notre Dame, Iowa and Florida State among others. One other name that could be in play for the Gators is Zach Anderson (6-7, 205, SR), who averaged 12.8 points, 5.1 rebounds and shot 45.9 percent from three for Florida Gulf Coast. Anderson was a high school teammate at Apopka of transfer signee Sam Alexis. Anderson, who has been heavily recruited by Indiana, played AAU ball for Each1 Teach1 on the Nike circuit.  

Malaki Starks on Kirby Smart’s approach to the portal: Wade Peery of On3Sports reports that on “The Players Lounge” podcast Georgia DB Malaki Starks outlined Kirby Smart’s approach to players leaving the program via the transfer portal. Starks said, “Kirby says all the time if we lose you that is okay. We will replace you.”

Oh, if only more coaches took that approach. Back when Steve Spurrier was Florida’s head ball coach, he used to say, “I want players who want to be Gators.” He wouldn’t lower himself to begging players who didn’t want to be here to stay. That’s an invitation for way too many problems down the road.

It’s true that Spurrier never had to deal with the transfer portal and NIL, but it’s hard to imagine that he would have ever hit the panic button when a player wanted to leave the program. Kirby Smart seems to be taking a very similar approach.

Typically, players transfer for one of two reasons: (1) NIL money; (2) Lack of playing time. If it’s about money, the request is reasonable and the kid has earned it with hard work and right attitude, then give him the money and make him happy. If the first thing out of his mouth is that other schools are clamoring for him and offering big bucks, then the coach should have the guts to say, “I wish you well at your next stop. It’s been a pleasure to coach you.” Then show him the door. If it’s about playing time and the kid isn’t willing to wait for a shot, then a similar reply is all that’s necessary.

At no point, should either coach or player be reduced to begging. Nobody is indispensable.  

The high cost of doing basketball business: Writes Kyle Tucker, the veteran basketball writer at The Athletic, “If you have major needs to fill and plan on doing so through the transfer portal, you’d better have a couple million bucks, at least, in available NIL funds to assemble a competitive roster in the current climate.”

The couple million Kyle Tucker is talking about doesn’t include the NIL money it will take to keep good players from transferring or leaving for the pros. A player who averages double figures who has one or two years of eligibility remaining can probably command a rather hefty raise. The same is true for young guys who show plenty of promise in their freshman and sophomore seasons.

We may be seeing a trend moving forward where fewer and fewer high school recruits are signed by the power conference schools in favor of filling their roster with transfers from low-to-mid-majors. Why wait for a freshman to develop when you can dip into the portal for a kid who has found success or even stardom at a low-to-mid-major? Over the long haul, it’s probably more cost efficient.

We have the minor leagues in baseball that develop talent and pay it forward to the big league teams. The low-to-mid-majors are about to become the basketball equivalent of the minor leagues.

Meanwhile, the cost of doing business is already escalating. When Eric Musselman left Arkansas nearly the entire roster went into the portal. The same thing happened when John Calipari left Kentucky to replace Musselman at Arkansas. Both Calipari and Kentucky replacement Mark Pope are starting from scratch and both are doing it with a war chest that makes most NIL collectives pale by comparison. There were reports that Calipari was handed a $5 million NIL budget just for starters with the promise of as much as he needs to turn Arkansas into a legitimate, consistent national power. Don’t think for a second that all those gozillionaires who own horse farms in Kentucky are going to do nothing.

It will be up to everyone else in the SEC to either pony up or get left in the tall grass on the side of the road.

Say what Brian Kelly?: LSU football coach Brian Kelly told WAFB in Baton Rouge, “We’re not in the market of buying players.” After extolling the virtues of playing at LSU, Kelly added, “But if you just want to get paid this is not the place for you.”

Sounds rather virtuous, doesn’t it? Well, if you dig a little deeper, you discover that Kelly and his staff have been striking out left and right in the transfer portal. Currently, the Tigers rank 15th out of 16 Southeastern Conference schools in landing transfers since the first portal for 2024 opened back on December 5, 2023. Based on the info at On3, since the spring portal opened, LSU has had 14 outgoing transfers and only one incoming.  

LSU lost a ton of talent to the NFL and graduation. Kelly did sign 29 in a 2024 recruiting class that ranked seventh nationally, but how many of these freshmen will be able to contribute immediately at a high level? And, how many of those freshmen came to LSU because they had a better NIL deal than some other SEC school?

Brian Kelly said he left Notre Dame for LSU because you can win national championships at LSU. He’s oh-fer two in bringing home national championships at LSU. He hasn’t even won an SEC championship. That makes words like “not in the market of buying players” and “want to get paid this is not the place for you” sound like a cryptic warning to LSU fans that when the dust clears on 2024, Brian Kelly will be oh-fer three.

ONE FINAL PITHY THOUGHT: Jac Caglianone will be playing his final three games in a Florida baseball uniform at Condron Family Ballpark starting at 1 p.m. today when the Gators (25-23, 10-14 SEC) take on 4th-ranked Kentucky (35-10, 18-6 SEC). Caglianone could be the No. 1 overall pick when Major League Baseball drafts. The Cleveland Guardians have the top pick and per ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel, the choice will either be Cag or second baseman Travis Bazzanna of Oregon State.

In 147 games at Florida, Caglianone is hitting .346 with 67 home runs and 171 RBI. He has struck out only 96 times (17 this year) in 659 official plate appearances.

Major League Baseball plays a 162-game schedule, but in the days of Babe Ruth, it was 154 games. There are light years difference in college baseball and the big leagues, but just for the fun of it, I compared Cag’s career vs. the top seasons of Babe Ruth, Mickey Mantle, Roger Maris and Barry Bonds.

Ruth 1927: 151 games, .356 batting average. 60 home runs, 165 RBI, struck out 89 times.

Mantle 1956: 150 games. .353 batting average, 52 home runs, 130 RBI, struck out 99 times.

Maris 1961: 161 games, .269 batting average, 61 home runs, 141 RBI, struck out 67 times.

Bonds 2001: 153 games, .328 batting average, 73 home runs, 177 RBI, struck out 93 times.