Is a shootout the only way the Gators can beat Missouri?

A few thoughts to jump start your Wednesday morning:

On paper, Saturday looks like a mismatch. The Florida Gators (5-5, 3-4 SEC) travel to Columbia, 11th-ranked Missouri (8-2, 4-2 SEC) where not only are they 11.5-point underdogs, but it’s a night game and the weather forecast calls for temperatures in the 40s. The Gators don’t do well on the road (2-9 since Billy Napier became head coach), they are a warm weather team and the UF defense hasn’t stopped anyone with any consistency in weeks.

Missouri’s only losses this year are to LSU and Georgia. The Tigers lit up the LSU defense for 527 yards and 39 points with Brady Cook throwing for 411 and Cody Shrader running for 114. Wide receiver Luther Burden II caught 11 passes for 149 yards. Mizzou’s problem that day was stopping Jayden Daniels, who threw for 259 yards and three TDs while running for 130 more and another TD. Cook had his troubles with the Georgia defense, but Shrader ran for 112 yards. He's the only back to go for more than 100 against UGa this year. The Mizzou defense held Georgia to 385 total yards, 254 through the air.

Stopping Missouri is going to be a problem for the Gators. Shrader leads the SEC with 1,124 yards and 11 touchdowns. He’s coming off a 205-yard game against Tennessee. Burden has caught 68 passes for 984 yards and eight touchdowns while Cook has thrown for 2,746 yards and 17 TDs. Against the Gators a year ago, Cook threw two interceptions, Shrader ran for 17 yards on eight carries and Burden caught five passes for 20 yards. The 2022 Florida defense and the 2023 version bear a lot of similarities.

The answer for Florida would seem to see if the Gators can get into a shootout with the Tigers. The Tigers are tough to run on, but a year ago both Montrell Johnson Jr. and Trevor Etienne both gained more than 80 yards. The Tigers haven’t given up a monster game through the air – Memphis is the only team to go for more than 300 yards – but opponents have found success when they’ve been able to keep their QB upright. Missouri has 28 sacks for -176 yards this year. If the Gators can protect Graham Mertz (2,720 passing yards, 18 TDs, 2 INTs) he has the weapons in Ricky Pearsall (62-876, 4 TDs), Tre Wilson (51-479, 5 TDs) and Arlis Boardingham (26-289, 4 TDs) to make it interesting. If Etienne (628 yards, 7 TDs) and Johnson (625, 4 TDs) can get a few creases to keep the Missouri defense honest, then the Gators should be able to move the ball.

Can they win a shootout? The Gators are 1-2 in shootout games, a 41-39 win over South Carolina with a 39-36 overtime loss to Arkansas and a 52-35 loss to LSU last week. Unless the defense comes up with a shockingly good effort Saturday, it seems UF’s only chance to pull off a win will be to get in a touchdown-for-touchdown exchange with Missouri.

College Football Playoff Poll: Change at the top, Georgia new No. 1

In the previous two College Football Playoff polls, Ohio State was ranked No. 1 on the strength of wins over Notre Dame and Penn State. Georgia’s 52-17 win over then No. 9 Ole Miss was impressive enough that the Bulldogs took over the No. 1 ranking when the third playoff poll came out Tuesday night. Ohio State dropped to No. 2, but the next six remained the same.

Despite wins over three ranked teams (Ole Miss, Tennessee and LSU), Alabama remains No. 8 behind Texas, which scored a head-to-head win over the Crimson Tide in week two. Missouri jumped five places into the No. 9 position, giving the SEC three teams in the top ten.

CFP top 25: 1. Georgia 10-0; 2. Ohio State 10-0; 3. Michigan 10-0; 4. Florida State 10-0; 5. Washington 10-0; 6. Oregon 9-1; 7. Texas 9-1; 8. Alabama 9-1; 9. Missouri 8-2; 10. Louisville 9-1; 11. Oregon State 8-2; 12. Penn State 8-2; 13. Ole Miss 8-2; 14. Oklahoma 8-2; 15. LSU 7-3; 16. Iowa 8-2; 17. Arizona 7-3; 18. Tennessee 7-3; 19. Notre Dame 7-3; 20. North Carolina 8-2; 21. Kansas State 7-3; 22. Utah 7-3; 23. Oklahoma State 7-3; 24. Tulane 9-1; 25. Kansas 7-3

SEC football

(Associated Press rankings)

No. 8 Alabama (9-1, 7-0 SEC): Reacting to the firings of Jimbo Fisher and Zach Arnett, Nick Saban said, “We are in a business that you get evaluated based on outcomes and your performance and I hate to see anybody go through this. I’ve been fired before. It’s no fun. It’s no fun for your family, but both those guys have great reputations in terms of what they’ve been able to accomplish over the course of their careers and I’m sure they’ll have many more opportunities to be successful in the future.”

Arkansas (3-7, 1-6 SEC): Speculation runs about 50-50 whether Sam Pittman will be given another year to coach the Razorbacks or if Saturday’s game with Florida International will be his final game as the Arkansas HBC.

Auburn (6-4, 3-4 SEC): In Auburn’s three-game winning streak, Payton Thorne has thrown for 587 yards with only two interceptions while running for 166 and another TD. In the seven games before that, Thorne threw for 851 yards and five TDs with five picks and ran for 258 yards and two TDs.

No. 1 Georgia (10-0, 7-0 SEC): Kirby Smart said tight end Brock Bowers is healthy enough to play against Tennessee. “I don’t know if he’s 100 percent but he’s healthy and safe enough to play and we’re going to allow him to play as long as he wants to,” Smart said Tuesday. Having already clinched the SEC East championship there was some thought that maybe Smart would sit Bowers, who recently had tight rope surgery on a high ankle sprain, against the Vols.

Kentucky (6-4, 3-4 SEC): The Liberty, Gator and Duke’s Mayo bowl games seem to be Kentucky’s most realistic options for the postseason. The Wildcats will not be going to the Music City Bowl since the SEC doesn’t send teams to the same bowl game in consecutive years.

No. 15 LSU (7-3, 5-2 SEC): After throwing for 372 yards and three touchdowns while running for 234 and two more against Florida, Jayden Daniels was named Davey O’Brien National Quarterback of the Week. That performance has vaulted Daniels perhaps into the top spot in the race for the Heisman Trophy.

Mississippi State (4-6, 1-6 SEC): Greg Knox, who was the interim head coach at Mississippi State in 2017 when Dan Mullen took the Florida job and the interim at Florida when Mullen was fired in 2021, is the interim for Mississippi State’s final two games now that Zach Arnett has been fired. Knox was the winning coach in the 2017 Tax Slayer Bowl and the loser in the 2021 Gasparilla Bowl.

No. 11 Missouri (8-2, 4-2 SEC): At his Tuesday press conference, HBC Eli Drinkwitz praised the Florida Gators, who the Tigers play Saturday in Columbia. “I know their record is not what they want. Coach Napier is building the right kind of culture and the right kind of fight and attention to detail. They have really good schemes on both sides of the ball.”

No. 13 Ole Miss (8-2, 5-2 SEC): Speaking of Mississippi State firing Zach Arnett with two games remaining in his first season on the job, Lane Kiffin said, “It used to be you had time to build things. You had years to sign classes and see them develop before people made decisions. It’s obviously not what’s going on. I don’t know how you do that that fast or how the expectation is to judge you that fast about the job you did. Unfortunately it’s kind of the in thing to fire people fast.”

South Carolina (4-6, 2-5 SEC): Shane Beamer knows the Gamecocks’ defensive plan for Kentucky begins with stopping Ray Davis, who ranks second in the Southeastern Conference with 929 rushing yards for 11 touchdowns. Davis has had only one game with more than 100 yards on the ground (128 vs. Missouri) since he went off for 280 and three touchdowns against Florida.

No. 21 Tennessee (7-3, 3-3 SEC): The Vols are 10-point underdogs for Saturday’s game against Georgia at Neyland Stadium. The last time Tennessee beat Georgia was 2016, the year before Kirby Smart became the UGa head coach.

Texas A&M (6-4, 4-3 SEC): Amid speculation that he might be targeted by the Aggies to succeed Jimbo Fisher, Clemson coach Dabo Swinney said, “I’m just focused on this job. Always have been. Just trying to beat North Carolina. It must be November. That’s all I can say.” Also, Detroit Lions head coach Dan Campbell, who played collegiately at Texas A&M, plans to remain in the National Football League.

Vanderbilt (2-9, 0-7 SEC): Vanderbilt averaged 33.4 points in its first five games, all with AJ Swann at quarterback. The Commodores scored at least 20 points in all five games. In their last six games, all of them losses, the Commodores have scored 20 or more just twice and have averaged 15.4 per game. Swann hasn’t played in any of the last six games.

SEC basketball

Tuesday’s scores: FLORIDA (2-1) 89, Florida A&M (0-3) 68; No. 1 Kansas (3-0) 89, No. 17 Kentucky (2-1) 84; No. 7 Tennessee (3-0) 82, Wofford (2-1) 61; No. 13 Texas A&M (3-0) 79, SMU (3-1) 66; No. 22 Alabama (3-0) 102, South Alabama (1-2) 46; Mississippi State (3-0) 81, North Alabama (2-1) 54; Vanderbilt (2-1) 74, UNC-Greensboro 70; Ole Miss (3-0) 70, Detroit Mercy 69

Baltimore Ravens head coach John Harbaugh, older brother of Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh, said Tuesday that the investigation into his baby brother has basically come up empty. Speaking Tuesday, John Harbaugh said investigators have looked at Jim Harbaugh’s cell phones and computers without finding a shred of evidence connecting him to the sign stealing scandal that has resulted in the Big Ten Conference suspending Jim the final three games of the regular season.

“He’s come through this thing with flying colors,” John Harbaugh said. “I don’t know what they’re trying to get, but they don’t have anything of substance.”

Michigan has asked for a restraining order against the Big Ten that will allow Jim Harbaugh to resume coaching. The hearing is scheduled for Friday. The Wolverines play Maryland in College Park on Saturday.

Jim Harbaugh says he will be attending the hearing and says he’s more than willing to talk. Harbaugh says he’s all about due process, something that has been visibly absent with the Big Ten’s decision to suspend.

ONE FINAL PITHY THOUGHT: A state judge in Washington has given Washington State and Oregon State sole control of the Pac-12 Conference. That means the 10 departing schools heading to the Big Ten (Washington, Oregon, Southern California and UCLA), Big 12 (Arizona, Arizona State, Utah and Colorado) and ACC (Stanford and California) have no voting rights and commissioner George Kliavkoff cannot call a board meeting. Thanks to the new ruling, Washington State and Oregon State are the board and they control everything including revenue from bowl games, the College Football Playoff, the Rose Bowl, the Pac-12 Network and the NCAA Basketball Tournament. The 10 departing schools will, of course, appeal to the Washington Supreme Court.

Also at stake is the Pac-12’s status as a power conference. Under NCAA rules, Washington and Oregon State have two years to expand the league to a minimum of eight teams, which would preserve the Pac-12 as one of the Power Five conferences. If the Washington Supreme Court rules in favor of Washington State and Oregon State, they’ll have the revenue necessary to implement a merger with at least several members of the Mountain West Conference. Considering the MWC is part of the Group of Five, Power Five membership would all but ensure at least one Pac-12 team gets into the College Football Playoff when it expands to 12 teams next year.