Let the games begin: Gators will win, only question by how much?
For the Long Island University Sharks, the goal tonight is to pick up a hefty paycheck that will go a long way toward balancing the athletic department books while escaping without any injuries that require surgery. That just about sums up half the equation for tonight’s season opener for 15th-ranked Florida (7 p.m., Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, ESPN+/SEC Network+).
Florida’s half of the equation goes something like this: First team guys play the first half, then cede the rest of the game to backups, many of whom will be playing before a sellout crowd in a big stadium for the first time in their lives. Productive reps for quarterback DJ Lagway, who needs to play two full quarters but might not if the Gators are scoring at will. No sacks given up by the O-line. No points given up by the defense. No injuries that could force a player to miss even one game of a rather brutal Florida football schedule.
One other thing for the Gators: Don’t come out of this blowout win thinking you’ve accomplished anything monumental. The Gators will be going against perhaps the worst team to come to The Swamp since Charleston Southern departed with a paycheck and a 62-3 beatdown in the 2009 home opener. Think of this game as nothing more than a tuneup for a legitimate opponent next week, a South Florida team that hosed 25th-ranked Boise State 34-7 Thursday night.
Because LIU is a D1AA opponent the oddsmakers in Las Vegas haven’t bothered with a spread, but if they were to stoop that low, it would probably be something like 45 points. Billy Napier most likely wants to see all four of his quarterbacks play (Aidan Warner, Harrison Bailey and Trammell Jones are the other three beside Lagway) but even with a QB shuffle going on, it might be hard to hold down the points.
Florida is going to win this game. The only question is by how much.
SEC FOOTBALL
No. 8 Alabama at Florida State: Since winning their first 13 games in 2023, the Seminoles are 2-11. They will be 2-12 after today. Alabama is a 14.5-point favorite. It might be close for a half, but that’s about it. The pick: Alabama
Alabama A&M at Arkansas: Paycheck game to start the season for the Razorbacks. They will struggle to get to six wins, the absolute minimum for Sam Pittman to keep his job. The pick: Arkansas
Auburn (1-0) 38, Baylor (0-1) 24: Auburn ran for 307 yards with QB Jackson Arnold going for 137 and two touchdowns. That’s all well and good, but he was only 11-17 for 108 yards passing. If the throwing game doesn’t improve Auburn is going to have some problems moving ahead.
Marshall at No. 5 Georgia: The Poodles are favored by 39.5 points. Marshall has 62 newbies on its roster plus a new coach who is converting to the Rich Rod offense, which goes heavy on the run. It’s going to be a long day at the office for Marshall. Georgia isn’t as good as the final margin will seem to indicate. The pick: Georgia
Toledo at Kentucky: Wins are going to be hard to come by for Kentucky this year, so non-conference games against teams from the Mac and Cheese are a requirement. The UK QB is Zach Calzada, now in his seventh season of college football. The Wildcats are 10.5-point favorites. The pick: Kentucky
No. 9 LSU at No. 4 Clemson: Brian Kelly thinks he has a contender, so this game is critical to start the season. An 0-1 start to the season with Florida looming on the horizon in two weeks will not bode well for LSU. If the Tigers with their brand new offensive line protect Garrett Nussmeier as well as they did at The Swamp back in November, then the air is going to come out of the LSU balloon in a hurry. Clemson is a 4.5-point favorite. Clemson will cover and then some. The pick: Clemson
Mississippi State at Southern Miss: This is one of three winnable games on the Mississippi State schedule. It would be a good idea for the Bulldogs to win because this is going to be a long season. Mississippi State is a 14.5-point favorite. The pick: Mississippi State
Missouri (1-0) 61, Central Arkansas (0-1) 6: Penn State transfer Beau Pribula threw for 283 yards and two touchdowns, ran for 65 more and two more scores. So much for a quarterback controversy.
Illinois State at No. 18 Oklahoma: It will be somewhat disappointing if Oklahoma doesn’t win this one by at least five touchdowns. The first look at Washington State transfer QB John Mateer will be impressive. The pick: Oklahoma
Georgia State at No. 21 Ole Miss: Once again Ole Miss will have a bazillion transfers on the field. A problem for everyone else, no problem for Lane Kiffin, who can somehow cobble together a winning team with newbies every year. Austin Simmons is the real deal at QB. The Rebels are 33.5-point favorites. They will cover. The pick: Ole Miss
Virginia Tech vs. No. 13 South Carolina (in Atlanta Sunday): Are the Gamecocks for real or way overhyped? Everything about them except QB LaNorris Sellers screams over-hyped, but Shane Beamer has made the Gamecocks perpetual over-achievers. Even if they win this one and cover the 7.5-point spread, we won’t know a whole lot moving forward. The pick: South Carolina
Syracuse vs. No. 24 Tennessee: The Vols break in a new quarterback (Joey Aguilar) against a Syracuse team that won 10 games a year ago in Fran Brown’s first year as a head coach. It’s going to seem like a home game for the Vols, who are favored by 13.5 points. They should win this game, but cover? That might be a stretch. The pick: Tennessee
No. 1 Texas at No. 3 Ohio State: This is a rematch of last year’s College Football Playoff semifinal only this time it’s at Ohio State and the Texas quarterback will be Arch Manning, grandson of Archie, nephew of Peyton and Eli. The Ohio State QB will be Julian Sayin, who started out at Alabama in the spring of 2024, then transferred to Ohio State in the summer. The winner will be hyped as the favorite to go on and win the national title. The loser should still make the playoff. Depending on who you trust when you wager a few bucks, the Longhorns are either a 1-point fave on the road or a 1.5-point road dog. The Texas defense has me convinced they’ll beat the Buckeyes. The pick: Texas
UT-San Antonio at No. 19 Texas A&M: Only God and the Longhorns have more money than the Aggies, who have proven they can write big checks with the best of them. This is a good A&M team, but playoff contender good? We won’t know after this one. A&M is a 23.5-point favorite and will easily cover. The first chance to figure out if the Aggies are legit will be in two weeks when they travel to Notre Dame. The pick: Texas A&M
Charleston Southern at Vanderbilt: Vanderbilt shocked the world by winning seven games a year ago. Seven wins would be an accomplishment this season. It will be one down and six to go after Saturday. The Commodores will win this one in a blowout. The pick: Vanderbilt
I thought the Arky coach was Sam Pitman. I do agree with your picks.
It’s so difficult to learn much about SEC teams with openers like most of these, but I’m with you, Franz about Georgia and LSU. The Bulldogs aren’t quite as good as most people think, and Brian Kelly is a coach with a high floor but a low ceiling for championships. South Carolina is one of the most overhyped SEC teams of all. Texas’ main contender for the conference’s top rung will be Alabama provided Ty Simpson is a good enough QB. I like the Gators at 10-2 and third in the conference, a true contender.
One of the reasons I dislike the girl scout games so much is the injury risk as some players will let up and not go full speed on every play