Life Is Like a Box of Chocolates for Mike White and the Florida Gators

“My mama always said, ‘Life was like a box of chocolates. You never know what you’re gonna get.’” – Forrest Gump

Photo Courtesy: SEC

Mike White can relate. When his Florida Gators basketball team takes the floor, he never knows what he’s going to get. It can vary from game to game because one thing we have learned about the Gators is that when everybody is on the same page, they can be formidable. Of course, they can also have a game like Wednesday night against Missouri when from one half to the next it was a totally different team on the floor.

Team Gump, as we might call the Gators since we don’t know which team is going to show up, came into the Missouri game on the heels of three straight games won impressively, two of them on the road. They left the O-Dome on the short end of a 72-70 score that had everyone wondering – especially after the first half – who are these guys? This box of chocolates night saw the Gators turn the ball over 15 times in a first half that ended with Mizzou ahead, 36-29. Those 15 first half miscues were converted into 18 points, exactly 50 percent of Missouri’s pre-intermission offensive production.

When put in proper perspective, those 15 turnovers represented an 18-0 run by Missouri fueled by 15 possessions in which the Gators failed to get off a shot. When the Gators did get off a shot there was a very good chance it was going in the basket. They shot a sizzling 61.9 percent in the first 20 minutes so if this had been a turnover-free half, it would equate to nine made shots erased if the percentages held up.

The way the Gators were playing defense in the first half when they were giving up uncontested three-pointers and straight drives to the rim Missouri might very well have scored those 18 points even without the benefit of those giveaways. Even so, a simple slight reduction in the turnovers would have made a difference. Add five extra shots for a team shooting better than 60 percent and it’s highly unlikely the Gators would have trailed at the half.

The Gators played a much cleaner second half, turning the ball over only three times while continuing to shoot at a high percentage and playing a better brand of defense. Florida trailed by eight with 2:27 to go in the game. With 18 seconds left they had tied things up at 70-70 on a pair of Tyree Appleby free throws.

Those last 18 seconds, however, were a killer. It’s as if the defensive mindset that had gotten the necessary stops to power the comeback went brain dead. On the right wing, Missouri’s Dru Smith jab stepped left and then came back to his dominant right hand. Tre Mann took the fake, then crossed his legs, a cardinal sin for defending the perimeter. That created a blow by alley in which Smith took the ball baseline on his way to the rack. When Colin Castleton and Anthony Duruji rotated over to try to block his shot, Smith reversed to the other side of the rim and banked in the winning points with 0.7 seconds left in the game.

Missouri's Smith makes the winning shot. Photo Courtesy: SEC

That brief defensive lapse only added to the frustration of a game the Gators had no business losing not just because they’re a better team that Missouri but also because what was at stake. A win over Missouri would have ensured the Gators wouldn’t play until the quarterfinals in the Southeastern Conference Tournament in Nashville. Now, with a 13-7 overall record and 9-6 in conference play, they will have to defeat Tennessee in Knoxville Sunday to remain in the top four finishers in league play. A loss and the Gators are playing Thursday in the SEC Tournament. Beat Tennessee and UF doesn’t play until Friday.

The importance of the extra day of rest prior to the first game in the SEC Tournament can’t be overstated. It’s hard enough to win the tournament and the automatic NCAA bid that goes with it starting with the Friday quarterfinal game. Finish outside the top four teams and it takes winning four games on four consecutive days. Fortunately, the Gators are considered locks to make the NCAA Tournament no matter what happens in Knoxville or in the SEC Tournament, but adding a few more wins before Selection Sunday could seriously enhance Florida’s seeding.

Florida is quite capable of beating Tennessee in Knoxville. The Gators already own a 26-point blowout win over the Vols in Gainesville back in January, a game played short-handed because Castleton was nursing a sprained ankle and Scottie Lewis was sitting out due to Covid-19 protocols. Tennessee came into that game 10-1 and was the darling of national pundits who were fast tracking the Vols on a path to the Final Four. On paper the Gators were outmanned. On the floor, they swarmed all over the Vols defensively and owned the paint as Florida compensated for Castleton’s absence by Omar Payne, Osayi Osifo and Jason Jitoboh picking up the slack.

Castleton and Lewis will be available Sunday but since the game is in Knoxville where the Vols are rarely beaten, it will be an all hands on deck type of game. White will need everyone to contribute much the way he got everyone involved in Florida’s most impressive win of the season on the road at Morgantown where the Gators beat a West Virginia team that won’t surprise anyone if they wind up in the Final Four.

Can the Gators pull off a clean sweep of the Vols? Photo Credit: Hannah White

This is what is so frustrating about the Gators and why they are your basic box of chocolates team. You just never know what you’re going to get from them but when everybody shows up focused and ready to go, they do things like whack West Virginia. Those same Gators who destroyed the Vols in Gainesville and plunked West Virginia in Morgantown can dispose of Tennessee in Knoxville if they remember to take care of the basketball. The team that turned the ball over 15 times in the first half against Missouri and was outscored 13-1 in the final 6:37 against South Carolina can get steamrolled if the focus is not there and the effort on the defensive end isn’t intense.

Questions are many for this Florida team but answers can be found with these two numbers – 18 and 13.

Eighteen as in the 18-day layoff after Keyontae Johnson collapsed on the court in Tallahassee. In the time between that shocking event when the Gators lost to Florida State and the win over Vanderbilt in Nashville on December 30, the Gators were in a mild state of shock from seeing their best player, team leader and close friend fight for his life. With Johnson hospitalized in an induced coma in the days after Tallahassee, basketball was the last thing on the Gators’ minds. Four games were cancelled during the layoff and it would have been understandable had White had asked for more off while his team coped with the trauma. Most of the team went home during the layoff and the entire group didn’t return until after Christmas. Preparation for the Gators’ return to action following the layoff consisted of a couple of practice days just before traveling to Nashville where they got a 91-72 win.

Although the Gators beat LSU at the O-Dome their second game back, the rust and lack of conditioning from that 18-day layoff showed, particularly on the defensive end when they lost by double digits to both Alabama and Kentucky. Those two losses made it appear that Florida’s season was on the brink, but they got their act together for five wins in the next six games including that impressive 85-80 win over then 11th (now 6th) ranked West Virginia.

The West Virginia win has been described as the most impressive non-conference win by any SEC team this season. A team that can win on the road like that against a tough, physical team like West Virginia can beat anybody in the country when there is full focus and intensity. So how do the Gators go from playing like a team capable of a deep NCAA run and then three days later lose to a team going nowhere like South Carolina? Another one of those you never know what you’re going to get nights.

That brings us to the second important number – 13. Immediately following the loss to South Carolina, the Gators had their up close and personal encounter with Covid-19. That forced a 13-day layoff most of which was spent with all team activities halted. Three games the Gators could have won were postponed and it was only two or three days prior to a road trip to Fayetteville that they were able to practice again, only one of which conducted with the entire team on the floor. An almost predictable loss followed to a very hot Arkansas team.

Since the loss to Arkansas we’ve seen the Gators go into a three-steps forward, one step backward mode. The three steps were consecutive wins over Georgia, Auburn and Kentucky. The step backward was the Wednesday night loss to Missouri.

Maybe we should have expected the Missouri loss since it fits the pattern of the way this season has played out. It would be hard for any team to sustain consistency with 31 days of layoffs that allowed only minimal practice, a lack of conditioning during the time away because of NCAA and SEC virus protocols and seven games lost to postponement, only one of which will be made up. There is no way to get a grip on how all this affected the Gators but nearly every team that has experienced protracted layoffs has had similar experiences. Mike White has probably dealt with the lapses better than most coaches, but while not making excuses for his team he would likely tell you it has been very difficult to get everyone on the same page mentally and physically.

None of this takes into account what the Gators might be like if they had Keyontae Johnson healthy, either. Johnson was the preseason SEC Player of the Year for good reason and it isn’t a stretch to think he would have justified the hype. Keyontae was such a steadying influence and such a force at crunch time last year. With him in the lineup would the Gators be three or four wins better right now?

We will never know the answer to that question. All we have to show for 16 games without Keyontae is an inconsistent body of work whose high points outweigh the low points enough that it will get UF into the NCAA Tournament. Currently the Gators are 27th in the latest NCAA Net Rankings and 28th at Kenpom.com, probably the two best indicators of how the NCAA Tournament Committee would see UF if this were Selection Sunday.

The Selection Committee tries to balance out the wins with what it considers bad losses. Of the seven Florida losses, South Carolina is the only one outside the top 100 at Kenpom.com and the NCAA Net Rankings. Although there is no such thing as a good loss, some are better than others. Here are Florida’s seven losses complete with the NCAA Net Ranking and Kenpom.com ranking for each team to tell you why:

Alabama: The 8th-ranked Crimson Tide are SEC champs and on the two seed line of every NCAA Tournament bracketologist. Alabama is 7th in the NCAA Net Rankings, 8th at Kenpom.com

Florida State: The 11th-ranked Seminoles are headed for their second straight ACC title and are on the three line for most bracketologists. FSU is 10th at Kenpom.com, 14th in the NCAA Net Rankings.

Arkansas: The Razorbacks are ranked 12th and considered by many to be the one team in the country not named Gonzaga that nobody wants to play under any circumstance. Everybody has them on a four line currently. Arkansas is 12th in the NCAA Net Rankings, 13th at Kenpom.com.

Missouri: Since January the Tigers have spent most of their time in the top 25 and only a week ago were projected as a top four seed. Right now they’re on most eight lines. Missouri is 39th in the NCAA Net Rankings, 43rd at Kenpom.com.

Mississippi State: This was a three-point loss in Starkville where the Bulldogs are extremely tough to beat. If they win a couple of games in Nashville no one will be surprised. The Bulldogs are 65th at Kenpom.com, 79th at the NCAA Net Rankings.

Kentucky: Despite the record that says this is the worst Kentucky team in ages, the Wildcats are top four or five in the nation when it comes to talent. Odds are they won’t, but if they did go 4-0 in Nashville it wouldn’t cause heart attacks. Despite an 8-15 record, Kentucky is 55th at Kenpom.com and 65th in the NCAA Net Rankings.

South Carolina: No way to defend it. The Gamecocks are 101st at Kenpom.com and 123rd at the NCAA Net Rankings.

With one regular season game to go at Tennessee, the SEC Tournament in Nashville and the NCAA Tournament ahead there really isn’t an accurate way to predict the future for the Gators. It’s an end of the season that could go either way. SEC Network analysts Jimmy Dykes and Pat Bradley both believe the Gators are capable of making it to the championship game in the SEC Tournament and past the first weekend in the NCAA Tournament. That’s not analysis from a parallel universe. Florida is indeed capable of playing with and beating just about any team in the country but that’s only if they play like they did when they beat Tennessee the first time or took out West Virginia in Morgantown.

If the Gators play like they did in losing to South Carolina, the last three minutes of the loss at Arkansas or in the first half of the Missouri loss, they will go home in a hurry from Nashville and from Indianapolis, where the entire NCAA Tournament will play out. There is absolutely no telling what we’re going to get from one game to the next or even one half to the next. Florida’s greatest consistency is its inconsistency.

The Gators are very capable of beating Tennessee Sunday and making life a little bit easier moving forward but this is a team so full of surprises that Mike White doesn’t have a clue what is next. Good things can happen if he pulls the right chocolate out of the box.