LOREN MEADOWS: Florida vs. Kentucky: More of The Same Saturday Night. Can the Gators Go To 2-0?
Updated: Sep 9, 2022
"Florida coming off a mild upset of then #7 Utah is looking to continue to grow under first year head coach Billy Napier. Kentucky is seeking a second straight win against the Gators for the first time since 1977.
In what has become one of the SEC’s most underrated rivalries, Florida and Kentucky have split the last two contests with only one of those games (Florida win in 2020) decided by more than one score.
By LOREN MEADOWS
GatorBait.com Football Analyst
Saturday night the 12th ranked Florida Gators welcome the 20th ranked Kentucky Wildcats to Ben Hill Griffin Stadium for an SEC East showdown. Florida coming off a mild upset of then #7 Utah, looking to continued growth under first-year head coach Billy Napier. Kentucky is seeking a second straight win against the Gators for the first time since 1977.
In what has become one of the SEC’s most underrated rivalries, Florida and Kentucky have split the last two contests with only one of those games (Florida win in 2020) decided by more than one score. For those that enjoyed Saturday’s physical contest with Utah, this weekend will be more of the same as both programs like to play ferocious, sound defense, complemented by physical efficient offense.
Kentucky has become a thorn in the Gators side for the last five years after such overwhelming dominance by Florida, with each team feeling they have let at least one or two games slip away.
Will the Gators be up to the challenge for the second week in a row? Will Kentucky’s reshuffled offensive line protect its quarterback better than it did against a Miami of Ohio? Will The Swamp and the September humidity play a factor for the second straight week? Let’s take a look at Florida vs. Kentucky
Kentucky Offense: The Kentucky offense could enter this game missing three of its top four rushers. The SEC's leading rusher in 2021, Chris Rodriguez Jr. has been indefinitely suspended for disciplinary reasons while Ramon Jefferson and JuTahn McClain are out with undisclosed injuries.
With those absences the bulk of the offensive production will fall on quarterback Will Levis (#7, 6-3, 232) and reserve running back Kavosiey Smoke (#0, 5-9, 209). A second-year starter, Levis will attempt to affect the game with both his legs and arm. Levis carried the Kentucky offense with 303 passing yards in Week 1 against Miami. While he can be just as effective on the ground, Miami was able to register four sacks on the mobile quarterback. Kavosiey Smoke should receive the lion’s share of the carries against Florida. A hard runner with a low center of gravity, his 5.6-yard per carry average over a five-year career make him a solid SEC back.
Ultimately to effectively run the ball, Kentucky will rely on the improvement of its retooled offensive line. New offensive coordinator Rich Scangarello will incorporate the 49ers/LA Rams outside zone rushing scheme against the Gators but will do so with three new starters and one who will be making a position change this week. Eli Cox (#75, 6-4, 298) was one of the SEC’s best guards a year ago before suffering a season ending injury and has moved to center. His counterpart on the “Big Blue Wall” is Kenneth Horsey (#68, 6-3, 304) who has started 21 of 25 career games and will make the move from Left Guard to Left Tackle against the Gators. The new look offensive line managed only 50 rushing yards last Saturday and will be looking to reinvent themselves against a gator front that struggled against the Utah rushing attack.
Unlike Utah, who could not challenge the Gator secondary on the outside, Kentucky features three dynamic newcomers that could cause issues for the Florida secondary. Virginia Tech transfer Tayvion Robinson (#9, 5-11, 187) eclipsed the yardage record for a Kentucky receiver in a debut (136 yards). Four-Star freshmen Dane Key (#6, 6-3, 194) and Barrion Brown (#2, 6-1, 166) combined for 7 catches and a touchdown in their debut, with Brown adding a 100-yard kickoff return in his first game.
Will Levis is a bonafide NFL prospect with the measurables NFL scouts love. Florida will have to be mindful to disguise coverage and rush with discipline to make things difficult for him throughout the evening. Florida was able to hurry Cam Rising five times but was unable to register a sack against a retooled Utah offensive front. Kentucky’s offensive line could be more vulnerable, and Florida’s defensive line should be able to take advantage similar to Miami who registered four sacks and applied consistent pressure on Will Levis. Tayvion Robinson is a legitimate concern at the receiver position and Kentucky does a nice job moving him to different spots (a la Cooper Kupp). Look for the Florida secondary to identify him on every play and adjust accordingly. Key and Brown are future stars but an experienced Florida secondary should stand up well against the freshman duo despite Brown possessing elite speed. This could be a game where sophomore corner Jason Marshall plays a prominent role after a quiet night against Utah.
Kentucky Defense: Mark Stoops returns five starters to a defense that ranked 26th nationally in 2021. Former 5-star recruit Justin Rogers (#52, 6-3, 332) anchors a defensive line that features two former 4-stars recruits in Octavious Oxendine (#8 6-1, 281), and Tre'Vonn Rybka (#90 6-4, 275). At inside linebacker DeAndre Square (#5, 6-1, 221) is one of the SEC’s best starting 35 of 49 games and registering 244 career tackles. At outside linebacker is Junior J.J. Weaver (#13, 6-5, 242). Weaver is a highly motivated player who uses his long frame and athletic ability to make plays. In just 25 games Weaver has recorded 16.5 tackles for loss and 7.5 sacks.
The secondary is led by safeties Tyrell Ajian (#6, 6-0, 193) and Jalen Geiger (#4, 6-1, 197). Ajian is a 5th-year senior who elected to make use of his COVID year to return to school. Jalen Geiger is a hard-working safety from Columbia, S.C. who spurned late attention from the Gamecocks. The son of highly decorated Army officers, Geiger embodies the “lunch pail” mentality of a Mark Stoops defense, one of his main reasons for sticking with his early pledge to the Wildcats. Rounding out the secondary is Carrington Valentine (#14, 6-0, 194) and Ole Miss transfer Keidron Smith (#1, 6-2, 204). Smith started Florida’s 2020 contest with Ole Miss totaling 12 tackles and one pass-breakup. Due to his size and experience, look for Smith to draw Florida’s Justin Shorter Saturday night.
Florida will once again look to impose its will on the defensive front of Kentucky. The trio of Nay’Quan Wright, Montrell Johnson, and Trevor Etienne -- and now maybe even Lorenzo Lingard -- should be heavily featured in the game plan after combining for 178 yards rushing versus Utah. As Florida looks to open the passing game, particularly on the outside, Kentucky will be tasked with limiting throwing lanes while also paying close attention to the dynamic Anthony Richardson should he tuck the ball and run. The offensive line and Richardson are clearly the strength of the Florida offense. Will two hours of Ethan White and O’Cyrus Torrence leaning on Rogers and others take its toll on another sweltering night? Will Anthony Richardson’s legs be the X-Factor for a second week?
The Skinny: The saying goes, “styles make fights.” Which ultimately means because Team A beat Team C, and Team B struggled against Team D, Team A may not beat Team B. Billy Napier and company have all the respect in the world for Mark Stoop’s Kentucky program stating, “This is a good developmental program that I have nothing but respect for. So, you’ve got to beat Kentucky. They are going to make you beat them.” Simply put, pay no attention to Kentucky’s early struggles against Miami of Ohio. Kentucky will arrive in The Swamp as confident as it did in 2018 win the Wildcats finally broke through with a win in Gainesville in the second game in the season, against a new Florida head coach. There is a difference. Florida was not set back then at quarterback and Kentucky featured a dominant offensive line with a future NFL running back. Anthony Richardson must -- and will be -- the difference in the game Saturday night. Florida cleans up its “sloppy” mistakes. Jason Marshall Jr. picks Levis once and Richardson hits Nay’ Quan Wright in the flat for a late score to put it out of reach for the Gators.
Prediction-Florida 33 Kentucky 23
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