Mullen's box of chocolates existence seems to be nearing the end

“Life is like a box of chocolates, you never know what you’re gonna get.” – Forrest Gump

In Dan Mullen’s box of chocolates existence as the head football coach at the University of Florida, he has lost eight one-score games since 2019. He’s oh-fer his last seven in large part because he has no idea what he’s going to get from the Gators who have turned inconsistency into an art form.

Saturday’s 24-23 overtime loss to Missouri (6-5, 3-4 SEC) came down to the game’s final play and like so many of the previous one-score losses, the Gators had everything dialed up right to get a stop that would have won the game only to come up short when Connor Bazelac got off a high-arching lob just before he was hit into the end zone to uncovered Tyler Badie.

“We got lined up and we got the call,” Mullen said wearily after the game. “We had a time out available and I said, ‘Hey, are we ready for what we expect they’re going to do out of that formation?’ They said yes. I said, ‘Do you want to take the time out and just go over it?’ and it was like, ‘No, I think we’ve got it covered.’

“We felt we had it defended. We had a guy right in the quarterback’s face (Khris Bogle) and obviously weren’t able to make that play and then we blew the coverage.”

Another chocolate from a box that Mullen has to know will soon be empty if it isn’t already.

It is mind-boggling the number of close calls that Mullen has had only to come up one score short. He’s now 34-15 as Florida’s head coach. With one more play in eight games, he could be 41-9. At 41-9 Florida fans are salivating at the possibilities that lie ahead. At 34-15 they’re asking Scott Stricklin who’s on the short list to take over the program and start winning those one-score games?

This latest loss, most likely the one that is the final nail in Mullen’s Florida coaching coffin, was filled with things that should have happened and an equal number that could have happened. We can also point to a bunch of things that would have happened that didn’t.

That’s the problem with shouldas, couldas and wouldas. They don’t equal wins and Dan Mullen desperately needed to win this football game. Well, maybe desperate isn’t close enough to describing just how badly Mullen needed to go into next Saturday’s game with Florida State (5-6) already bowl eligible and a rivalry-game win away from calming the growing number of Florida fans and boosters who believe he needs to be coaching in another zip code next year.

Instead of being a win over FSU that injects a measure of hope into a Gator Nation that has grown weary of losing the close calls, next Saturday’s game is likely to be his swan song. If there is a silent majority of Gator fans who have been in favor of retaining Mullen next year, then they probably spit out the gags that have kept them from verbalizing their concerns that the 2021 season has been in a meltdown mode ever since October 2. That’s when the Gators found a creative way to lose a one-score game to Kentucky. If you have chosen to forget that nightmare in Lexington, then here’s a refresher. Florida committed 15 penalties, many of them on the offensive side that negated big plays and a tacky personal foul that set up the Wildcats with a short field for a touchdown march after an interception. There was a blocked field goal that UK returned for a TD. There were plays to be had on offense, but the combination of bad reads at quarterback and by the center making the line calls made Kentucky’s defense look far better than it actually was.

The Kentucky game is perfect for describing the Florida’s box of chocolates season. Two weeks later in Baton Rouge, the defense was a no show, allowing LSU 321 rushing yards in a 49-42 loss, but that loss can’t be pinned completely on the defense because three Florida interceptions – one a pick six – gifted the Tigers 21 of their 49 points. Then there was Georgia when the Gators self-destructed in the final three minutes of the first half. Instead of 3-3 at halftime, Georgia led 24-3 thanks to a fumble and two interceptions, one of which was a pick six. It’s a 13-7 game if not for the turnovers. The defense showed. The offense gave it away.

South Carolina? Absolutely, the worst Florida loss since Georgia Southern in 2013. The offense didn’t show. The defense certainly didn’t. Defensive coordinator Todd Grantham was pink slipped after that game as was offensive line coach John Hevesy. You can argue that the sell-by date with both Grantham and Hevesy expired long before the South Carolina loss, but has it really made a difference?

Samford scored 52 points on the UF defense – 42 at the half – last week but the O-line did its job enough that Florida score 70 and put up 717 yards of offense. Against Mizzou, the defense played well enough to win, holding the Tigers to one TD and three field goals in regulation and just 286 yards for the entire game. If you want to point fingers, this is on the offense and that’s not necessarily Mullen’s fault. The O-line had all sorts of difficulty and Emory Jones made dozens of bad reads, especially in the passing game. How is it Trent Whittemore had only one catch (good for 45 yards) and yet he spent the game so wide open that you would have thought he had something contagious and everyone in the Mizzou secondary was afraid of spending the weekend in the infirmary if they came close?

It's the inconsistency that has been the killer this season and last and is the reason why it will be one of the great upsets if Dan Mullen is given a chance to fix the problems. At the very worst, the Gators should be 9-2 right now. We can rationalize that if UF had gone into the half at 3-3 with Georgia they might have won. We can also argue that there is no way South Carolina could have beaten Florida if the Gators weren’t losers of three of their previous four prior to that game in Columbia.

All the rationalizing doesn’t change a thing. Florida is 5-6, in danger of a third losing season since 2013 and likely to be seeking its fourth head coach since Urban Meyer retired after the 2010 season. Even if the Gators beat Florida State next week to finish the regular season at 6-6, they’ll still be in danger of a losing season if they can’t win the bowl game. Birmingham anyone? Lose in Birmingham and you’re required to stay an extra week. Shreveport? Well, at least they have casinos so you can drown out a loss by dropping some money at the blackjack tables and slots plus you can go to 2John’s for the Filet Oscar with crab meat and shrimp on the side.

The odds that Mullen will be the head coach more than one day after the Florida State game diminished considerably Saturday. He tried to sound upbeat at his postgame press conference but he had the look of a beaten man and there was no confidence or energy in his words. He admitted that he’s had conversations with athletic Scott Stricklin about what has to be done to patch the holes in the program and make things better.

“We had meetings last week about what direction we need to go in the future with assistant coaches and who we’re going to bring in here and what our candidates are looking for the future and changes we need to make,” Mullen said.

The changes might have resonated if the Gators had found a way to make one more play to avoid a seventh straight one-score game Saturday in Columbia, Missouri. Losing, however, most likely signals the end of the road.

Mullen’s coaching life at Florida has been a box of chocolates, particularly 2021. The fact that he’s never known what he’s going to get from this team can no longer be rationalized. He’s the head coach. He’s the one responsible for coaches who coach poorly and players who play badly. He hired the coaches. He recruited the players.

Not all the problems are on Mullen, but since he’s the head coach, he is the one who takes the fall. If he could do it all over again, Mullen would probably do a lot of things differently but you can’t put the toothpaste back in the tube once it’s been squeezed out. There are no do-overs and in the case of Florida football, no chance to do a fixer-upper either.