Napier has a good team but he won't change minds in Dallas

This week Billy Napier will be addressing a throng of media from all over the nation gathered in Dallas for SEC Media Days. As always, this is the premier college football media event of the summer and while so much attention will be given to SEC newcomers Texas and Oklahoma as well as the usual adulation for Georgia and Alabama, there will be dozens of stories written which ask just how hot is Billy Napier’s seat.

Memo to the media ahead of time: Unless the Gators do the equivalent of a 1979 0-10-1 nosedive, Billy isn’t going anywhere this year. If he can’t get it together by the end of 2025, then he can sweat. As for the moment, he’s safe. He’s being given the necessary time to rebuild the Florida football program and end the revolving door that has seen five coaches come and go since Steven Orr Spurrier walked away from the job in January of 2002.

Perceptions. Key word for this week. The media will be hanging on Napier’s every word to determine even the slightest bit of trepidation ahead of a 2024 that will see the Gators playing a schedule so difficult that the media is in near unanimous agreement that it’s easily the toughest in the nation. Who knows how the media will perceive Napier’s assessment of the 2024 Gators? If you’re prone to bet on such things, bet a few bucks that at least some folks will gauge Napier’s rather deadpan demeanor as a coach who is feeling the heat.

Again, nothing is further from the truth. Billy always comes across that way, but if you’ve been around him awhile and spoken to the kids who play for him, he exudes a quiet kind of confidence. He leaves the rah-rah to others, but has a way of getting his point across in such a way that kids want to play for him.

This is Napier’s third media days appearance so he knows what to expect. In previous press conferences, he’s gone about things in a very pro-active way, choosing to at least give his side of the story ahead of the questions he knows that are coming. Sometimes it works rather well, sometimes it is like striking a match to start a fire. Napier will talk about how happy he is with an offseason that saw no veterans arrested and only one incoming freshman run afoul of the law. He will talk about the hard work and leadership of the veterans, especially quarterback Graham Mertz and some of the elder statesmen of the team. He will talk about the new additions to his coaching staff and how they’ve transitioned into a functioning unit that has made the team better.

And he will speak optimistically about the schedule. What else can he do about that? He’s not the one who made out the schedule and he’s not about to ask why the Gators got such a tough schedule while Auburn and Missouri have managed to squeeze in Vanderbilt as well as a couple of homeless shelters to fill out their 12 games.

When it’s time for the questions, the sharp knives will come out. Napier isn’t asking for any slack nor is anyone about to give him any. Some of it is likely to resemble an interrogation but Billy has dealt with this before and he has had a few months to get ready for the tough questions that are sure to come. He’s not an excuse maker but neither is he one to paint rosy pictures.

Napier is not one to dwell on the past, so unless someone feels bold enough to bring up how close the Gators are to 18 or 19 wins instead of the 11 they’ve posted the last two years, it won’t be mentioned. But it should be and it should be because the Gators have endured their fair share of winnable games that somehow slipped through their fingers. Some would go so far as to call the Gators masters of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

The two questions that should be asked of Napier are: (1) How will the changes you’ve made to the defensive coaching staff turn these close call, shoulda, woulda, coulda losses into victories; and (2) how much closer are the Gators to a legitimate SEC roster than they were when you took over the UF program in December of 2021?

Just from what we saw in the spring, there is no doubt the Florida coaching staff is better now than it was last year, especially on the defensive side of the football. The Gators addressed all three levels of the defense by bringing in Gerald Chatman from Tulane to handle the line, Ron Roberts from Auburn as co-defensive coordinator and inside linebackers, and Will Harris from the Los Angeles Chargers to handle the secondary.

Tulane gave up only 112.71 yards per game on the ground (3.55 per carry) and got to the quarterback 35 times. The Gators, by contrast, gave up 155.58 yards per game rushing (4.84 per carry) and only registered 22 sacks.  Chatman spent the spring teaching gap control against the run and collapsing the pocket. Of Tulane’s 35 sacks, 28 came from the D-line. In nine of Tulane’s 14 games, the Green Wave allowed fewer than 100 rushing yards.

Here is how to measure the potential for Roberts with the defense. A year ago, his first at Auburn, Roberts improved the defense by seven points and four first downs per game. Take away one touchdown from the opponents and give the offense 12 more plays and the potential is there for a 14-point swing. Can he do the same at Florida where offense hasn’t been the problem but getting the other team off the field has been? Roberts has been a mentor in the past to co-defensive coordinator Austin Armstrong, who is considered a rising star in the coaching profession. Roberts brings maturity and stability to the defensive staff.

Harris was a ball hawking safety for Pete Carroll at Southern Cal during his playing days. While coaching the secondary at Washington in 2021, the Huskies led the nation by allowing only 142.9 passing yards and only 5.4 yards per pass attempt.  Based on what we saw in the spring time, the Gators much more aggressive with their coverage and their willingness to go after the football.

Two years of development, good recruiting that plugs holes, three years of judicious use of the transfer portal, improvements in the strength and conditioning department and the most experience he’s had since he arrived have finally given Napier a roster that looks the part of one that belongs in the SEC. Graham Mertz, who came via the transfer portal, has more starts than all but one Division I quarterback, and he’s building on a 20-TDP, 3-INT season in 2023. He’s got stud receivers in Eugene Wilson, and transfers Chimere Dike (Wisconsin) and Elijhah Badger (Arizona State), the best running back in the SEC (Montrell Johnson Jr., transferred in from Louisiana two years ago) and an O-line bolstered by transfer tackles Devon Manuel (Arkansas) and Brandon Crenshaw-Dixon (San Diego State). Over on the defensive side of the ball, Napier brought in a stud pass rusher (George Gumbs, Northern Illinois), the Ivy League Defensive Player of the Year (DT Joey Slackman), the big, physical middle linebacker he needed in Grayson Howard (South Carolina transfer) and three stud safety transfers in Trikweze Bridges (Oregon), Asa Turner (Washington) and D.J. Douglas (Tulane).

It has taken three offseasons but finally, the Gators look the part of an SEC roster. Two years ago in Jacksonville it looked like the Gators were playing kids against grown men. It was less of a problem last season but as we saw in the spring, the Gators look like grown men. For a change. 

Experience cannot be underestimated. The Gators were one of the least experienced teams in all of college football a year ago. They come into 2024 with a roster than has a combined 525 starts and 1,401 games of experience. Kids are going to play, but they won’t be thrown to the wolves. They will be surrounded by experienced players and that has the possibility to make a huge difference.

The pieces are in place for improvement. The schedule is brutal for sure, but seven games are in The Swamp and only three outside the state of Florida. Even with the home field advantage, the oddsmakers in Las Vegas say the over/under is 4.5 wins which is fueling so much of the Napier on the hot seat rhetoric. Does this team look the part of another loser? Not really, but this will be decided on the field and not by Vegas or the media.

So, expect another typical Billy Napier press conference in Dallas. This will be the equivalent of driving 100 miles out of the way for an ice cream parlor that has more than 40 flavors then ordering vanilla. He will not say anything that can be remotely close to bulletin board material for any UF opponent. Don’t read anything into it. He knows he has a team that could not only post a winning season but scare the bejabbers out of every team on the schedule.

For now, think of Billy as a poker player who isn’t showing his cards.