No. 11 Florida's Keys To Beat No. 1 Alabama; Breakdowns From Emory Jones, Zach Carter and Tim Tebow
Let’s just examine the logistics first and get them out of the way. The No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide are a 15-point favorite over the No. 11 Florida Gators tomorrow. This despite Florida winning their first two games with ease (so did Bama). This despite the Gators posting 12 straight games of 400 plus yards of offense (Bama has 21 straight). All of this despite the game being in Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, The Swamp, which will be hosting a sold out crowd in one of the notoriously toughest places to play in the country.
But Alabama is too fast, too strong, too deep and taking them down takes a Herculean, flawless effort.
Even Gator great Tim Tebow, speaking with local media on Friday ahead of the marquee matchup, admitted it would take talent, skill and little bit of luck for his Gators to pull of an unlikely win.
“I think Florida absolutely has a chance in this game. Do I think they’re as good as Alabama? No. I don't think they’re as deep as Alabama…Do they have the experience in these games like Bama? No. Do they probably have the depth of Bama? No.
“But from a playmakers, from a talent standpoint, from a top 22, if they get some of the breaks—when Ole Miss beat Bama in the back-to-back years, that Ole Miss team wasn’t better than Bama. They got the breaks. They were aggressive. They hit their shots. Bama turned it over a few times and it started to roll. When you look at a recipe for Florida to win, is there a recipe? Yes. Is it a harder recipe to get all the ingredients? Yeah. Is that possible? Absolutely. But I think so much of it has to do with getting momentum early and getting your shot off first.”
With that in mind, getting momentum early and getting a shot off first, top our list of four keys to a Florida win that’ll shock the college football world.
Explosive Plays
Whether through the run or the pass, the Gators have to take a chance with explosive plays. Alabama hasn’t given up many explosive plays—just 15 through two games, plays counting foe 10 yards or more—but of those 15 plays, the typically stout Tide defense let one get past them for 60 plus yards.
Florida leads the country with three plays of 70 or more yards. They’re one of 14 teams—admittedly Alabama among them—that has posted a play of 80 or more yards. That 80-yard play was courtesy of quarterback Anthony Richardson on a run for a touchdown against USF. Emerging reports and Head Coach Dan Mullen’s latest comments seem encouraging Richardson will play. This after suffering a tightened hamstring on said 80-yard touchdown run.
Florida has to believe they can hang with the Tide, and having done so in Atlanta is a good boost. In that game, the Gators willingly took shots downfield. Even though they don’t posses the same downfield personnel this season—with a roster sans Kyle Pitts, Kadarius Toney and Tre Grimes—we’ve seen Xzavier Henderson, Justin Shorter and Jacob Copeland all get downfield for explosive plays through the air this season.
Getting the receivers downfield early with big shots will stretch the linebackers. That unit is arguably Alabama’s strongest, so neutralizing them is key. Once that’s done, the space will be there for the Gators seven-headed rushing attack to do some damage.
When it comes to Alabama, too many teams let the intimidation factor decide the game before it’s even started. The last Florida quarterback to beat Alabama was Tebow, in the 2008 SEC Championship. He knows what it takes. And as such, he wants to see the Gators looking for those explosive plays early.
"To beat Bama, first of all, you have to be willing to stand up to them, you know? And then you have to be willing to be aggressive with them. And I think that’s how you have to play. You have to be willing to take your shots and hit them like Florida did last year in the SEC championship, like Ohio State did at certain times in the national championship, like Ole Miss has when they’ve played them, like we when we played against them.
“I just think you can’t look and say, ‘Oh, Bama, we’re going to be scared. We’re going to be a little bit tentative. You can’t make a mistake.’ I think you have to shoot your shot early and keep shooting. If you do that, I think you have a much better shot at beating Bama
Front Seven Pressure
“We can talk about how good Bryce Young has been, but he still has to play the game.”
That was how Roman Harper—former Alabama safety and current SEC Network analyst—described the challenge the Alabama redshirt freshman quarterback will be facing come game time.
“He has to go out and perform at the highest level. All it takes is one interception and all the sudden the crowd is really into it and now they’re feeding off of their own energy. Now it’s a really tough game because now you have a ball game.”
Getting after Young quick and hard is a large part of the Gators game plan. This will be the first true road start Young is making, having opened the season in a neutral site game that featured primarily Alabama fans. Even as the backup in 2020, he played in stadiums that never topped out at more than 20% full, with COVID-19 restrictions.
But the best way to rattle him is to get in his face. Harper goes on to say he doesn’t see Young being affected by many blitzes, which is always a pillar of a Todd Grantham defense. But the Gators can still get in the young quarterback’s face and keep the ball in his hands thank to rush coverage.
Florida lineman Daquan Newkirk faced Alabama for a couple of years while with the Auburn Tigers (before he transferred to Florida) so he has even more familiarity with the Tide’s scheme.
“I know a few things, kind of a few things up my sleeve. I mean, definitely from playing them each and every year. I mean, I talk to the guys a lot. Definitely from facing them last year, they’re pretty similar. They lost a few guys up front, but they’re pretty similar as the guys from last year, so that’s a big plus I guess for us.”
Of course this all becomes much more difficult without middle linebacker Ventrell Miller. Losing the quarterback of the defense hurts, possibly more than any other position on the defense. He made the calls, put guys into position, and was the Gators leading tackler before exiting early versus USF.
Zach Carter, who has three sacks so far, feels he can keep the count going, but knows it will take extra care to contain Young’s talent.
“What I've seen from Bryce Young, he's a pretty elusive quarterback and from the film that I've studied so far,” Carter told local media this week. “I see how relaxed he is in the pocket and he has good pocket presence and awareness, so I feel like this week we had to do a good job with our rush lanes and just keeping in mind, trying to cage him in the pocket, because he's a pretty elusive guy."
“For a young guy he's, he's really developed and probably ahead of his age, per se, and he's really talented, so we know we're going to have to play well and he's got talented guys outside that can make plays when he gets them involved,” agreed defensive coordinator Todd Grantham.
“I think anytime you can affect the quarterback, you're, you know, you're going to be successful so obviously you've got to be able to first of all stop the run, to where you put it in his hands, you know, from that standpoint. But, anytime you can affect the quarterback and, and get after him a little bit, and make him a little nerve racked, that's got a chance to be in your favor. So yeah I mean that's obviously something we'll try to do.”
Protect the Ball
In the first two games, Emory Jones threw four interceptions. They were a combination of bad decisions and bad throws and indicative of problems so obvious that Jones himself was able to address them with pinpoint accuracy.
Explaining the turnovers after the USF win, Jones said, “First one was just bad read, bad decision from me. I didn't think the guy was going to run out that fast, but he did. I was trying to get it out of my hands quick before he could make a decision, but I mean he made a great play and I made a bad decision right there.
“The second one, that was another bad decision out of me. I was waiting for another guy to come open and I was late getting back to Trent, so I mean I shouldn't have thrown that ball. That was a terrible decision.”
These aren’t one-off “terrible decisions” though. According to Tebow, they come in certain moments. But Jones’ upside is still too high to be completely offset by the bad decisions, in Tebow’s mind.
“At times, [Emory] can make throws…and it's almost as good as you'll see in the country on certain throws, especially against man coverage. Then, sometimes he could be a little hesitant with some things. Almost every one of those has been a zone against a drop eight, right, which is partly being confident, seeing those looks. I think the more he sees him, the more he'll be able to, to just play with confidence and rip it like he does when he sees man coverage.”
All of this to say, whatever game plan Florida brings into this game, it must include fail safes to help Jones protect the football. Those are the little details that decide a game against teams this strong. As Mullen noted this week, if you change three plays in the SEC Championship, Florida wins the game. But just one play against the Tide—who has nabbed five turnovers in two games—can ruin your chances of winning.
To beat the best, you have to be better. That means no mistakes, the most important of those being turnovers.
The Swamp and the Atmosphere
As Gators Athletic Director Scott Stricklin tweeted on Friday of the Saturday, game time weather report, “Tomorrow is going to be hot, steamy, maybe wet … basically perfect weather for The Swamp.” As of print, the forecast calls for a 50% chance of rain at kickoff and for the entire game.
Rain benefits a ground game, of which the Gators have a nice one. In fact, Florida’s rushing offense currently leads the nation, picking up an average of 381.5 yards per game on the ground. Alabama’s rushing defense is 23rd in FBS, only allowing 77.5 yards per game. Still, as Stricklin mentioned, the combination of the rain and humidity should benefit a Florida team that can operate in both.
The biggest advantage Florida has in this game though? The fans. The crowd is such a difference maker, that it’s swaying even the staunchest of those who typically believe the game is only decided on the field. One of those is Florida alum and SEC Nation host, Laura Rutledge.
“It seems to me like Bryce, in getting to talk to him a little bit and watching him handle himself, is very good about any sort of adversity or complicated situation, but when you're in the heat of the moment there you do think that'll be a big factor.
“I think for Florida if they can get off to a fast start and the crowd's really in it and the crowd can stay in it, that's a much tougher day for Alabama than if the opposite happens. I think the crowd; I'm not usually a big, 'Oh, the crowd's a big factor' person. I think in this particular game the crowd can win this game for Florida and maybe also lose it. If they're not involved, that gives Alabama a real nice day.”
Zach Carter needs the crowd to stay in the game if the Gators want to pull off the upset.
“Whenever any team is coming into The Swamp, especially as big of a game as this is - I know it's a sell-out crowd, 90,000 -that could probably rattle anybody, you know, veteran or young player. So, I'm expecting the crowd to really help, juice up, energize the defense this weekend, and we definitely feed off the crowd and The Swamp."
Final Prediction
I think Florida has a lot going in their favor: the weather, the run game, the atmosphere, the defensive line, Anthony Richardson, a Dan Mullen game plan that I think will be one of the best we've seen...which will be enough to keep it close. Since this game shouldn't technically keep the Gators out of Atlanta, a close loss would still allow them to measure where they're at and where they need to be, then prepare to meet Alabama again in the championship game.
The spread is 14.5 and I think the game is decided by less. But in the end, Alabama is too deep, to disciplined, too talented, too fast. They'll pull away and win by somewhere in the 10-13 point range.
I sure hope Kassidy's wrong this time and I have a feeling she will be.
Gators, 27-24. the crowd‘s roar rattles Bama’s offense, the rain limits scoring, Mullen out-schemes Bill O’Brien. And Bama hasn’t fixed its running game.