No matter the outcome, it's a no-win situation for Billy Napier

Billy Napier is supposed to win against UCF; lose and all hell will break loose (Photo by Chris Spears)

Billy Napier can’t win Saturday evening.

Napier and the Gators may put the kibosh on little brother UCF with the big dreams from Orlando. And, it’s entirely possible UCF leaves The Swamp feeling like it did when the clock at Ray Jay in Tampa flatlined at zeros back in December of 2021. Knight fans celebrated long into the night and well into the following week after winning their version of the Super Bowl. It was one thing for UCF to score an undefeated season and paint 2017 national champs on their press box at the Bounce House. It was something totally different and far more important to kick the shins of the big bad Gators.

Beating the Florida Gators was a pool of drool fantasy until that night in 2021. Now that the Knights have fulfilled that fantasy, they think it is time to show big brother that 2021 was no fluke. UCF thought it was a better team than Florida in 2021 and believes nothing has changed in 2024 except UCF is stronger and Florida is doing a Wild Waters slide into deep, shark infested water.  

UCF wants to prove once and for all that it is a power player from a power conference. In UCF-think, there is no way better to prove worthiness than to take the two hour drive north of Orlando to punch older brother in the nose for the whole world to see. As a member of the Big 12, which has a seat at the College Football Playoff table, UCF believes it sees the Gators eye-to-eye these days. Perhaps the Knights even look down a little bit. They still have hopes of making the 2024 College Football Playoff. For the Gators, that ship left port a couple of Saturdays ago.

This won’t be like 2017 when the Knights ran the table, finishing off a 13-0 run by beating Auburn in the Peach Bowl. Nor will it be like 2018 when UCF came up one game short of a second straight perfect season when it dropped a white knuckler to LSU in the Fiesta Bowl.

UCF fans proudly boast that while their team may not have three national championships that actually count like the Florida Gators, they have one more unbeaten season in school history than UF. You can look it up: UCF 1, UF 0.

Recent history aside, UCF is a team that Florida should not only beat Saturday night but any given Saturday. It’s not arrogance to point out that Florida has been a member of the Southeastern Conference since the league’s inception back in 1932. UCF didn’t start playing football until 1979. It wasn’t all that long ago that UCF was toiling through another D1AA season, followed by a six-year stint as an independent. Then came three years in the MAC, eight in Conference USA, 10 in the American and now one year and four games in the Big 12.

Getting invited to join the Big 12 was indeed a big deal for UCF, which would like to think that it validates the entire sports program but especially football as big time. Doesn’t matter that the two Big 12 bell cows – Oklahoma and Texas – defected to the SEC. The Big 12 didn’t lose its power conference status when Texas and Oklahoma marched, but it doesn’t necessarily mean UCF has graduated from happy meals to the dollar menu, which was evident last week the way Colorado pushed the Knights around at the Bounce House.

That loss is precisely why Saturday night’s game with Florida is another Super Bowl for UCF and why the game matters more to the Knights than that wink wink national championship season of 2017. Beating the Gators erases the stigma of getting hosed by Deion Sanders and Colorado. Even though the Gators are anything but a contender in the Southeastern Conference, they’re still from the SEC and they are still the biggest football brand name in the state of Florida. UCF will gladly sell the script that it is on equal footing with the Florida Gators and the SEC.

So from UCF’s standpoint, this game is a very big deal. It needs to be every bit as big a deal to Billy Napier and the Florida Gators.

In his 29 games on the job at Florida, Billy Napier is 13-16 overall. At The Swamp where the Gators were once considered as formidable as any team in the country, Napier’s Gators are 10-5, but only six of those 10 wins are against power conference opponents. The five home losses in fewer than three seasons are the same number Steve Spurrier had in 12 years on the job and Urban Meyer had in six.

Florida’s loss to UCF in Tampa in 2021 in a catfish bowl thar ranks among the postseason bottom feeders is one thing, particularly since it was with a lame duck coaching staff. Losing to UCF in The Swamp in a regular season game with the coach who stepped in after the last loss to the Knights will be perceived as 10 times worse. Check that. Make it 100 times worse.

Napier’s seat is hotter than the red lava that flows down the slopes of Kilauea into the Pacific Ocean. It has been that way for a long time, but especially since the losses to Miami and Texas A&M. As loud as the calls have been for Napier’s demise after the losses to the Canes and the Aggies, a loss to UCF and the decibels will be higher than a 747 takeoff.

What if the Gators and Napier come away with a win? Given Florida’s propensity for giving up chunks of yardage on the ground and UCF’s inept secondary, this game could turn into a last team with the ball wins a shootout. UCF ranks second nationally in rushing at 326 yards per game, not good news for a Florida defense that has given up 550 in its last two. The Knights have allowed 692 yards and seven touchdown passes in their last two.

Florida’s passing game has been heating up the last two games behind Graham Mertz, who has completed 31-36 passes for 396 yards and four touchdowns. Mertz completed 72.9 percent of his passes a year ago. He’s at 75 percent this season while averaging 8.7 yards per attempt.

The Gators desperately need this win and they’re more than capable of beating UCF, especially if the defense can at least slow down the Knights running game and Mertz can continue to find open receivers. The last thing Florida needs is to go on the road next week to face 4th-ranked Tennessee in Knoxville on the heels of a loss to UCF.

Whether it’s a win or a loss, Billy Napier is in a can’t win situation. If he beats UCF it will be viewed as a game he’s supposed to win. Florida fans will be happy if the Gators win the game, but this is a game they’re supposed to win. Billy Napier was hired to win championships and teams climbing the championship ladder are supposed to clean up at home not to mention beat the directional schools from their own neighborhood. So, even with a win a rather large contingent of Florida fans won’t view it as a significant accomplishment. That’s what expectations are when you play little brother. You’re supposed to beat up on him.

Lose and all hell will break loose because not only is this a game Florida fans believe the Gators should win, it’s one Billy Napier absolutely can’t afford to lose, especially if he intends to remain gainfully employed at the University of Florida. Lose this one and Scott Stricklin’s cell phone might blow up with the words of Jeremy Foley, who once said, “What should be done eventually must be done immediately.”