Nothing guaranteed, but Napier should be safe for at least 2024

Administration is solidly behind giving Billy Napier enough time to right the Florida ship (Photo by Brenden Martin)

A few thoughts to jump start your Tuesday morning:

And so it begins. Billy Napier and a handful of assistant coaches will be taking the podium this morning at The Heav to talk about the Gators ahead of the first day of practice that begins bright and shiny Wednesday morning.

Most of the folks in the national media as well as the oddsmakers in Las Vegas are of the opinion that Napier sits on a very hot seat, largely due to a schedule that is universally agreed upon as the most difficult in the country. At SEC Media Days the Gators were picked 12th in the 16-team SEC. The Las Vegas oddsmakers set the over/under for Florida at 4.5 wins.

Based on the schedule and two years of losing winnable games, there isn’t a lot of argument in favor of Napier and the Gators posting their first winning season since 2020 when Dan Mullen had eventual national champ Alabama on the ropes in the SEC Championship Game. Even some of Napier’s most ardent supporters believe that while the Gators will be a better football team than they’ve been the previous two seasons, it won’t be enough to post a winning record.

And, not enough wins, they say, means another new coach in 2025. If that turned out to be the case, then the next coach would be the seventh since Steve Spurrier retired from UF after the 2001 season.

But here’s the thing that the folks in the national media and others convinced that Napier has one foot out the door either don’t know or refuse to hear: The Florida administration is solidly behind Billy Napier and for good reason.

They understand first and foremost that six coaches since 2001 is way too many. Florida had three coaches from 1950 to 1978 – Bob Woodruff, Ray Graves and Douglas Adair Dickey. From 1979-89 there were two – Charley Pell and Galen Hall. Spurrier was the coach from 1990-2001, but since then it has been a revolving door. Ron Zook (2002-04), Urban Meyer (2005-10), Will Muschamp (2011-14), Jim McElwain (2015-17), Mullen (2018-21) and Napier (2022-present).

Of all the Florida coaches since Spurrier left after a 122-27-1 run that saw one national championship and six SEC titles, Napier was dealt the worst hand. Spurrier left Zook more than 30 players who spent at least one year in the NFL including 2001 Heisman runner-up Rex Grossman. Zook left Urban Meyer 20 of the 22 starters from the 2006 national championship game. Meyer left Muschamp recruits from classes ranked seventh, sixth and first from 2008-10. Muschamp left McElwain an NFL defense. McElwain left Mullen Kyle Trask, Kyle Pitts, three running backs who played in the NFL, four receivers who played in the league and a handful of defenders including a pair of stud DBs in CJ Henderson and Chauncey Gardner-Johnson.

Mullen left Napier the barest cupboard since Dickey was fired and replaced by Charley Pell in 1979. As a result, Napier has had to rebuild the Florida program from the ground up. This is the second part of the equation whose answer is why Billy Napier is being given plenty of wiggle room when it comes to putting the Gators on sound footing.

It takes time to restock a program with the kind of recruits it takes to win in college football’s toughest conference from top to bottom. From 1990-2010, Florida was a recruiting juggernaut which is why the Gators won more games (210) during that stretch than any team in the country. In the 13 years since, the Gators have the 39th best record in the country (98-66) and they’ve fallen far behind Alabama and Georgia when it comes to recruiting.

Thanks to good use of the transfer portal and a change in the approach to strength, conditioning and nutrition, this will be the first team Napier has put on the field that has the look of upper tier Southeastern Conference. If you were in Jacksonville the last three years, then you saw what looked like grown men (Georgia) and really big boys (Florida). The Gators looked a lot different in the spring and they should look even better when they take the field tomorrow.

There are no guarantees that the Gators can win seven or eight games in 2024 just as there are no guarantees the Florida administration will honor its commitment to give Napier the time he needs to restore the program to championship level excellence. But, Napier has an ace up his sleeve in freshman quarterback DJ Lagway. If the administration were to send Napier packing, there is every good chance Lagway would be in the transfer portal where he would be one of the two or three most highly sought players in the country. He’s that good. He was the top high school quarterback in the country last year. He is described by many observers as a generational talent, a potential Tebow clone whose combination of talent and the sheer force of his personality can lift a team to new heights.  

Graham Mertz (15) and DJ Lagway (2) hold the keys to Florida success offensively in 2024 (Photo by Chris Spears)

Napier has a really good quarterback for 2024 in Graham Mertz and enough good players that can give UF its first winning season in what seems like forever. Just as Tim Tebow did in 2006 when he added a missing dimension to Chris Leak’s game, Lagway will be the change of pace that causes opposing defensive coordinators nightmares when he steps in for Mertz a series or two each game.

The 2006 Gators had advantages that Napier and the 2024 Gators don’t have, such as an easier schedule and starting the season ranked seventh in the nation. Expectations are much lower for this year’s team but that’s not necessarily a bad thing. You can bet the farm that Napier and his entire coaching staff are selling this as an us against the world type of season.

Teams that embrace that kind of philosophy are known to play with an enormous chip on their shoulders. If the Gators can get off to a fast start, that chip might become awfully tough to knock off for teams on the UF schedule.

All these new scholarships: Who’s going to pay for them?

The University of Florida sponsors 21 collegiate sports. With the new anti-trust settlement, Florida will have as many as 518 athletic scholarships available starting in 2025-26. Using $30,000 as the base cost (room, board, tuition, books, fees) and if UF fills all 518 scholarships the UAA will be on the hook for $15,540,000. Currently, UF has approximately 265 on scholarship with a cost of $7,950,000.

The question that has to be asked is who is going to pay for all the new scholarships? The SEC contract with ESPN/ABC/Disney will be worth approximately $17 million more in revenue for the athletic department yearly. That contract is expected to be rewritten when television ratings go through the roof now that Texas and Oklahoma are in the league. So, from $70-75 million, the media contract could be worth an additional $10-15 million per year conservatively.

In addition to raising the scholarship limits, the new settlement will require revenue sharing that could BEGIN at $21.5 million. That equates to $41,505 and change to each scholarship athlete if revenue is shared equally. Since football generates nearly all the profit of the UF and other power conference athletic departments, would football players get more money? And what happens when Title IX makes its presence known, which you can bet the farm is going to happen?  

Another question that begs to be asked is will Florida fill up all its available scholarships? Let’s use lacrosse as the first example. Amanda O’Leary has been fielding a consistent top 7-8 team for years with 12 scholarships. Under the settlement, she can have as many as 38 at her disposal. Are there enough quality players available to fill 38 scholarships? And, would she even want to manage a roster that big?  

Baseball increases its scholarship allotment from 11.7 to 34, but it should be noted that Kevin O’Sullivan has been spreading his 11.7 scholarships over 27 players for years now. The NCAA has allowed for eight walk-ons as well, so figure there won’t be any significant changes there. Tim Walton’s scholarship allotment will double to 25 (from 12). He’s typically been working with 20 players, so again, no significant increase there.

Track and field, plus cross country (men’s and women’s)? That’s 90 scholarships between the two sports. Swimming goes from 23.9 scholarships to 60. The same question applies to Anthony Nesty as Amada O’Leary? Would he actually want that many scholarship athletes and how would he manage that many swimmers? The pool, it seems, could be quite crowded.

Finally, there is the ongoing possibility that athletic departments and conferences are going to push for athletes to become employees. The athletes don’t want that because it could lead to a salary cap. However, as employees, they could unionize and collectively bargain for salaries and benefits.

We’re less than a week into what the NCAA is hoping will be a landmark decision that will shape the future of collegiate athletics and it’s as if someone is waiting with a shotgun whose shells are filled with bird shot, just waiting to blow holes in the agreement.

ONE FINAL PITHY THOUGHT: ESPN came out with its 25 best players of the current century Monday. Here is the list with commentary to come:

1. Ndamukong Suh, DT, Nebraska; 2. Baker Mayfield, QB, Texas Tech and Oklahoma; 3. Cam Newton, Florida and Auburn; 4. Vince Young, QB, Texas; 5. Ed Reed, S, Miami; 6. TIM TEBOW, QB, FLORIDA; 7. Reggie Bush, Southern California; 8. Bryant McKinnie, OT, Miami; 9. Joe Burrow, QB, Ohio State and LSU; 10. Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Pittsburgh; 11. Terrell Suggs, DE, Arizona State; 12. Joe Thomas, OT, Wisconsin; 13. Khalil Mack, LB, Buffalo; 14. Aaron Donald, DT, Pittsburgh; 15. David Pollack, DE, Georgia; 16. Deshaun Watson, QB, Clemson; 17. Roy Williams, S, Oklahoma; 18. Kyler Murray, QB, Texas A&M and Oklahoma; 19. DeVonta Smith, WR, Alabama; 20. Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville; 21. Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State; 22. Will Anderson Jr., LB, Alabama; 23. Tyrann Mathieu, S, LSU; 24, Julius Peppers, DE, North Carolina; 25. Jonathan Taylor, RB, Wisconsin

Two words. Oh please.

Let’s start with Tebow. He was invaluable to Florida’s 2006 national championship team, won the Heisman as a sophomore, should have won it in 2008 when he led Florida to the national championship, and probably would have won it in 2009 except Urban Meyer saw fit to make Steve Adazzio as his offensive coordinator. No offense to anyone else on this list, but the only player on this top 25 that can really hold a candle to Tebow is Ed Reed who put the fear of God in every receiver who dared run a route across the Miami middle for three years. Tebow and Ed Reed would be my 1-2.

Cam Newton had one of the greatest seasons any quarterback has ever had. One season. He was Tebow’s backup in 2007, was booted off the team in 2008, spent 2009 at junior college and then had a great 2010 when he led Auburn to the national championship. A great player for a season.

Where is Sean Taylor? If he’s not in the top 25 then there is no such thing as a top 25. A couple of other DBs that didn’t make the list are Eric Berry of Tennessee and Patrick Peterson of LSU. Both belong ahead of Mathieu.

Where is Percy Harvin? Percy and Reggie Bush are the two most electric and explosive players of the past 25 years. Reggie is No. 7 but Percy belongs top 10 as well. No Adrian Peterson either. Michael Crabtree over Justin Blackmon, hands down.

No Glenn Dorsey? Easily the second best D-lineman of this century behind Suh. David Pollak was good, but not No. 15 good. Any list that doesn’t have Ohio State LB James Laurinaitis in its top 25 isn’t very good. Period.