Numbers crunch: What the Gators have to do to make the NCAA Tournament

Mike White will tell you it’s one game at a time, and he’s right. You can’t look ahead, not in the Southeastern Conference, which ranks surprisingly behind the Big 12 as the best basketball league in the country this year. But, with seven regular season games remaining and the SEC Tournament in Tampa looming, White knows it’s a numbers game and right now the numbers barely favor the Gators making it to the NCAA Tournament.

Winners of their last four games, the Gators are 16-8, 6-5 in the SEC, which is actually quite remarkable considering UF began the SEC portion of the schedule 0-3 and had a six-game stretch without the services of Colin Castleton, who leads the team in scoring (15.4 points per game), rebounding (8.9) and blocked shots (2.8 per game). Florida’s fragile existence is made more difficult by the absence of backup center Jason Jitoboh, who was starting to play very well in Castleton’s absence before an unintentional shot to the eye at Tennessee ended his season.

What the Gators have proven in their first 24 games is that they can win some games they shouldn’t and lose some games they have no business losing. That shows up in the NCAA Net Rankings, where the Gators are No. 48, which places them squarely on the NCAA Tournament bubble. The Gators are 1-5 against Quad 1 (Top 30) opponents, 3-2 against Quad 2 (31-75), 5-0 against Quad 3 (76-160) and 7-1 against Quad 4.

It is that one loss in Quad Four that could prove to be the most troublesome for the Gators moving forward. That was Florida’s 69-54 loss at the hands of Texas Southern, which came into the game 0-7. To Texas Southern’s credit, the Tigers have evened their record at 10-10 but that has done is elevate them to No. 177 in the Net Rankings. The way the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee looks at things, a loss to a Quad 1 or even a Quad 2 team is forgivable. Quad 3 losses are on shaky ground and a Quad 4 loss is a huge negative capable of torpedoing tournament chances.

So, how do the Gators overcome that disastrous loss to Texas Southern? Winning cures everything, but the schedule is daunting. The Gators have to play No. 5 Kentucky home and home, plus they have home games with red hot Arkansas and No. 1 Auburn. The other three games are all roadies: Texas A&M, Georgia and Vanderbilt.

If the Gators can win the games with Texas A&M, Georgia and Vanderbilt – all games that on paper, at least, they should win – they will have at least 19 regular season wins. Given the strength of the SEC plus non-conference wins over Florida State, No. 16 Ohio State and Oklahoma State, a 19-win regular season should get the Gators over the hump and into the tournament although it will probably be an 11 or 12 seed that requires a trip to Dayton for a dreaded play-in game. If the Gators could win the three they should win and then somehow get one win against Kentucky, Arkansas or Auburn, they could probably move up to the 10 line since they would have 20 regular season wins. Any wins in the SEC Tournament would further enhance their standing and could be conducive to moving up in that 7-10 grouping.

The 7-10 grouping is not a bad place to be since all four teams are pretty evenly matched. There usually isn’t a whole lot of difference between a No. 10 and a No. 7. UConn won the NCAA Tournament as a No. 7 seed in 2014 and Villanova won as a No. 8 in 1985. Wichita State made the national championship game as a No. 9 in 2013 and Syracuse made it to the Final Four as a No. 10 seed in 2016. In 2006 George Mason advanced to the Final Four (lost to Florida in the semifinals) as a No. 11 and VCU made it to the Final Four as a No. 11 in 2011. A No. 12 seed has won a first round game in 18 of the last 20 tournaments and the 2002 Missouri Tigers made the Elite Eight as a No. 12.

In the Mike White era at the University of Florida, the Gators have made the NCAA Tournament four of five years. The only years the Gators didn’t make the tournament were White’s first year in 2016 when they went to the NIT quarterfinals and 2020 when the NCAA Tournament was cancelled because of COVID-19.

The Gators made the Elite Eight in 2017 when they finished 14-4 in the SEC for second place. As the No. 4 seed in the East, the Gators advanced to the Elite Eight game in the NCAA Tournament where they lost to South Carolina. That team might have had a chance to win the national title except that 6-11 center John Egbunu went down with a torn ligament in his thumb that kept him out of the SEC and NCAA Tournaments.

The 2018 Gators went 11-7 in SEC play to earn a No. 6 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Injuries to Chase Johnson and Gojok Gak were a problem during the season. The Gators lost in the second round of the NCAA to Texas Tech. The 2019 Gators made the NCAA Tournament as a No. 10 seed after a 9-9 SEC run. The Gators lost in the second round to Michigan and for a third straight year, injuries were a problem at tournament time.

A year ago, the Gators endured the collapse on the court of preseason All-America Keyontae Johnson and two COVID-enforced breaks. They still finished 9-7 in SEC play and got to the second round of the NCAA Tournament where they lost to Oral Roberts. With Johnson in the lineup to go with NBA first rounder Tre Mann, NBA second round draft pick Scottie Lewis and Colin Castleton, this team could have made a very deep run in the tournament.

Injuries have been a constant with the Gators every NCAA Tournament year. That’s not an excuse but a reality. If Florida fails to make the tournament this year, injuries will be a factor once again. Assuming there are no further injuries and Castleton can stay healthy, Florida has a legitimate chance to get to 19 regular season wins and a 9-9 SEC record. To be on the safe side, however, they need to get to 20 wins and get what will amount to a signature win over Kentucky, Auburn or Arkansas. That would make it a no doubter that UF belongs in the tournament.

Currently, ESPN bracket analyst Joe Lunardi, has the Gators among the last four teams to make the NCAA Tournament. Lunardi projects the Gators as a No. 12 seed which would send them to Dayton for a play-in game. Win that one and the Gators would advance to the first round to face a No. 5 seed. The only way the Gators are going to get off that 12-seed bubble is to finish the regular season with three or four wins. A win at the SEC Tournament certainly would enhance their chances of getting to the 7-10 area of the brackets.

Lunardi currently has seven SEC teams making the tournament – Auburn (1), Kentucky (2), Tennessee (5), Alabama (6), Arkansas (7), LSU (7) and Florida (12) – which ties the Big 12 and Big Ten for most teams by any conference.

POST SEASON CHANCES FOR THE REST OF THE SEC Alabama (15-9, 5-6 SEC): Although it has been an up and down season in the SEC for Alabama, the Crimson Tide does own wins over then No. 1 Gonzaga and then No. 4 Baylor, the two teams that played for the national championship last year. Those wins offset losses to Memphis, Missouri and Georgia. Included in the final seven regular season games are Arkansas and road trips to Kentucky and LSU. The NCAA Net Ranking is 23 so a 4-3 record down the stretch will get Alabama in even without an SEC Tournament win.

Arkansas (19-5, 8-3 SEC): There isn’t a hotter team in the league than the Razorbacks, who have rebounded from an 0-3 start in league play to reel off eight wins in a row including a recent slaying of No. 1 Auburn. Arkansas has one of the tougher stretch runs, however, with Alabama on the road, Tennessee home and home and a homer with Kentucky. Florida on the road in between home games with Tennessee and Kentucky could prove troublesome. The NCAA Net Ranking is 31. With eight SEC wins already, the Hogs are shoo-ins for the NCAA Tournament. If they can finish 14-4 in league play, they could be a top four seed in some regional.

Auburn (22-2, 10-1 SEC): Bruce Pearl took Auburn to the Final Four in 2019 with a team that wasn’t as talented, as tall or as deep as this one. The schedule down the stretch isn’t particularly daunting other than a road trip to Tennessee so 6-1 or 7-0 is achievable, which would mean a regular season SEC championship. The Tigers have a No. 9 net ranking and Joe Lunardi has them a No. 1 seed. It’s hard to imagine they would drop any lower than a No. 2. This is a team that could make a Final Four run and bring home a national championship.

Georgia (6-18, 1-10 SEC): The Bulldogs are going nowhere. About the only question remaining is will Tom Crean get another year. A growing number of Georgia fans believe that if Crean is still the coach next year it is a sure sign that the administration cares only about football.

Kentucky (20-4, 9-2 SEC): The Wildcats have disposed of five consecutive opponents including a blowout win over then No. 5 Kansas in the SEC/Big 12 Challenge. It isn’t a question of if the Wildcats get into the tournament, just a matter of how high they will be seeded and where the Big Blue Nation needs to start reserving hotel rooms. The way John Calipari has the Wildcats playing defense, they have the look of a Final Four team. Their Net Ranking is No. 5 and Joe Lunardi currently has them a No. 2 seed. To run the table the rest of the regular season, they’ll have to win at Tennessee and at Arkansas, plus beat Florida twice and Alabama. That’s difficult but do-able.

LSU (17-7, 5-6 SEC): Now that point guard Xavier Pinson is healthy again, the Tigers could prove to be formidable down the stretch. Before Pinson was hurt, they were 14-1. LSU is looking like a 7-10 team in the NCAA Tournament. Any higher than that will require at least five wins in the next seven games with one of those five against either Arkansas or Kentucky, both games on the road. LSU has a No. 16 NCAA Net Ranking. Currently, Lunardi has them on the seven line.

Mississippi State (14-9, 5-5 SEC): The Bulldogs are on everybody’s bubble, but they’ve lost five of their last seven games and they still have to play at LSU, at Alabama and home against Auburn. They did beat Arkansas before the Razorbacks got things rolling, but that’s the closest they have to a signature win. Because of a COVID postponement they have eight SEC games remaining. They need to go 5-3 to make the NCAA Tournament. The Bulldogs have a No. 56 NCAA Net Ranking and they’re among Lundardi’s first four out.

Missouri (9-14, 3-7 SEC): Barring something unforeseen, such as winning eight straight SEC games or winning five in a row to take the SEC Tournament, the Tigers aren’t going anywhere anytime soon. Are the natives restless enough to call for Cuonzo Martin’s head on a platter? That might be the biggest question with three weeks remaining in the regular season. The NCAA Net Ranking is 145.

Ole Miss (12-12, 3-8 SEC): The final seven games include roadies to Auburn and Kentucky and this is an Ole Miss team that needs to win all seven to make the NCAA Tournament plus go deep in the SEC Tournament. Ole Miss is good enough to be pesky and capable of knocking off an unsuspecting team at home, but maybe not good enough to even make the NIT with a strong stretch run. The NCAA Net Ranking is 107.

South Carolina (13-10, 4-7 SEC): There are only two ways South Carolina can get into the NCAA Tournament: (1) go 7-0 down the stretch to finish 11-7 in SEC play or (2) win the SEC Tournament. The NCAA Net Ranking is 106. Four wins should get the Gamecocks into the NIT but even that will be difficult.

Tennessee (17-6, 8-3 SEC): The Vols have won their last three and seven of their last nine to jump to a No. 10 NCAA Net Ranking. Lunardi has Tennessee on a five line, but that could change since the remaining schedule is daunting with home games against Kentucky and Arkansas and a roadie to Auburn. A 4-3 record down the stretch probably keeps UT at a No. 5 for the NCAA Tournament. Win two of the three against Kentucky, Arkansas and Auburn plus make the SEC Tournament semifinals and the Vols could be a four or better seed.

Texas A&M (15-9, 4-7 SEC): The Aggies started out 15-2 and 4-0 in the SEC. Since then the wheels come off. With seven losses in a row, it’s going to take some sort of miracle to break out of their funk to turn things around. The schedule is conducive to a good finish although three wins in their last seven should land them in the NIT. The Net Ranking is No. 74.

Vanderbilt (13-10, 5-6 SEC): Jerry Stackhouse is a prime candidate for SEC Coach of the Year. It has been five years since the Commodores won 13 games in a season. Getting to the NIT would be quite an accomplishment and would take winning five of the last seven to get there. Odds aren’t good for that to happen, but still, getting to 17 or 18 wins would be a real sign that Stackhouse has the program heading in the right direction. The NCAA Net Ranking is 82.