Prediction Sunday: Who wins each conference, makes the playoff

It’s prediction Sunday. Since college football kicks off Saturday when Florida State takes on Georgia Tech in Dublin, Ireland, it’s time to make a few predictions starting with all nine Division I conferences plus independents and ending with the 12 teams I think will make the College Football Playoff.

SEC

Alabama: Kalen DeBoer’s career record as a head coach is 104-12. If there is a dropoff at Alabama this will be the year for it, but what happens if the Tide’s offense lights up scoreboards?

Arkansas: The schedule says 4-8. For the Hogs to do better than that offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino will have to dial up enough plays for the Hogs to win some shootouts.

Auburn: The Tigers should be 4-0 by the time they play anyone decent. They could win seven games if Payton Thorne remembers to complete passes to his team and not the other.

FLORIDA: The over/under in Las Vegas if 5.5 wins. Take the over. The Gators are going to be better than anyone expects. The offense will put points on the board and the defense is much improved. The Gators could be 6-1 or 7-0 by the time they play Georgia in Jacksonville.

Georgia: From a pure talent standpoint, Ohio State is the only team with as much or more than Georgia, but the Bulldogs have to go on the road to face Alabama, Texas and Ole Miss. They haven’t beaten a top 10 team on the road in the regular season since 2018.

Kentucky: The Wildcats will have to win with defense while hoping the offense can figure things out. The schedule is wicked with Georgia, (at) Ole Miss), (at) Florida, Auburn, (at) Tennessee, (at) Texas and Louisville.

LSU: The O-line is outstanding and it will have to be for the Tigers to generate a running game. The defense will be improved, but how could it be worse than the last two years? Four of the last five games are at Texas A&M, Alabama, at Florida and Oklahoma.

Mississippi State: Anything more than three wins should be viewed as an unqualified success. It’s going to be a long year in Starkville.

Missouri: The schedule is the easiest in the SEC. The skill people among the best. It might be difficult for the Tigers to do worse than 9-3.

Oklahoma: Only eight returning starters and a redshirt freshman QB. And yet, the Sooners might be better than anyone expects.

Ole Miss: The Rebels have a deep running back room, five experienced starters on the O-line, the best wide receivers in the country and a third-year starter at QB. Oh, and the Rebels have a defense, too. If they’re 8-0 heading into November they could run the table.

South Carolina: If Shane Beamer can go 6-6 he might be SEC coach of the year. Zero returning starters at the skill positions.

Tennessee: A redshirt freshman QB and only three starters (none in the secondary) on defense. Plus a schedule that includes (at) Oklahoma, Florida, Alabama and (at) Georgia.

Texas: The Longhorns play at Michigan game two and have Oklahoma and Georgia (home) back-to-back, finishing with the Aggies. Final four talent on this roster starting with QB Quinn Ewers.

Texas A&M: The Aggies start out with Notre Dame and end up with Texas. In between there are four losable games, one of which is at Florida. Can Conner Weigman stay healthy an entire season?

Vanderbilt: Every league needs a designated homecoming opponent.

Predicted top 4: 1. Georgia; 2. Alabama; 3. Ole Miss; 4. Texas.

The rest of the league: 5. Missouri;  6. Oklahoma; 7. LSU; 8. FLORIDA; 9. Tennessee; 10. Texas A&M; 11. Auburn; 12. Kentucky; 13. South Carolina; 14. Arkansas; 15. Mississippi State; 16. Vanderbilt

Big Ten: It’s going to be difficult for Ohio State to not win the Big Ten. The Buckeyes are loaded no matter who plays quarterback and they have the advantage of Chip Kelly calling the offense. K-State transfer Will Howard will be the QB with specific instructions, forget being a hero and just get the ball in the hands of the playmakers … Oregon is probably the second best team in the league, but they’d be 9-3 at best if they played an SEC schedule ... Michigan is vastly overrated with only five starters back from last year . Watch them get clocked by Texas week two … Penn State always figures out a way to lose games it shouldn’t and this year won’t be an exception … Southern Cal is in a rebuild mode. That wasn’t supposed to happen when Lincoln Riley became the coach … Iowa will win 9-10 games but won’t be nearly as good as its record would indicate … Wisconsin has to play Alabama, Penn State, (at) Iowa and Oregon. There’s another loss in there somewhere … Everybody else is playing for a chance to go so some exotic bowl location like Shreveport. Predicted top 4: 1. Ohio State; 2. Oregon; 3. Iowa; 4. Penn State

Big 12: If Cameron Rising stays healthy there is no reason short of a forfeit for Utah to lose a game. The Utes have the best coach in the league (Kyle Whittingham), the best defensive coordinator (Morgan Scalley), the best QB, a running backs room that is top ten in the country and a fierce defense … Can Jeff Gundy win the league now that Texas and Oklahoma are no longer around to kick Okie State? He’s got 20 starters back from last year’s 10-win team … Kansas has the second best QB in Jalen Daniels and the second best coach in Lance Leipold. The Jayhawks don’t play Utah but they do play Okie State and K-…   … K-State, Arizona, West Virginia and BYU should be pretty good but not good enough to win the league … Watch out for UCF. Gus Malzahn has his kind of QB in Arkansas transfer KJ Jefferson, but the Knights play as tough a schedule as there is in the Big 12 … This is year two for Sonny Dykes at TCU. The natives are restless, expecting at least 8-9 wins … If there is a surprise team it’s probably going to be BYU but the Cougars have to play SMU (non-conference), K-State, Kansas, Okie State … Coach Prime and Colorado could lose their season opener with North Dakota State and if they do it will be a long year in Boulder. Predicted top 4: 1. Utah; 2. Oklahoma State; 3. Kansas; 4. BYU

ACC: Florida State and Miami are the faves to win the league with Clemson and Louisville right behind … FSU is depending on DJ Uigalelei to take the Seminoles to the promised land. As he’s shown in previous stops at Clemson and Oregon State he’s good enough to beat bad to average teams, but stuggles against good ones. The Seminoles have to play at SMU, at Miami and at Notre Dame, plus they have homers with Clemson and Florida (non-conference). There are three losses in that group … Miami probably should fire Mario Cristobal if he can’t win 10 games with his schedule. If he loses to Florida week one, the sharp knives will be out among alums who never spent a day in a classroom on the Coral Gables campus. Fact you may not know but Miami has NEVER made it to the conference championship game … If Cade Klubnick finally puts it all together Clemson could win as many as 11 games. Dabo will have an outstanding offense, but a lot of young but talented guys on defense … First year for SMU and the Ponies have one of the best QBs you’ve never heard of in Preston Stone. Schmooz is really good … Louisville won 10 games last year but the Cards are breaking in a transfer QB and seven starters on offense … Duke,  Predicted top 4: 1. Clemson; 2. Miami; 3. SMU; 4. Florida State

American: Tulane is breaking in a new coach (Joe Sumrall) and a transfer QB from Oregon in Ty Thompson. If the Greenies survive weeks two and three (K-State and at Oklahoma), they could win the league for the second time in three years … Memphis will be very good. QB Seth Henigan is best in the league … A year after shocking everyone by going 7-6, South Florida will be improved, but the Bulls have to survive out of conference beatdowns with (at) Alabama and Miami … Texas San Antonio has a strong O-line, a roomful of running backs and a serious front seven on defense. The secondary could be the Roadrunners undoing … Can anyone prepare for Army’s funky option offense in a week? … Mike Bloomgren wins just enough to keep his job. Another 6-6 regular season is likely … Surprise team in the league should be UAB under second-year HBC Trent Dilfer. Predicted top 4: 1. Memphis; 2. Tulane; 3. Texas-San Antonio; 4. Army

Mountain West: Barry Odom won nine games in his first year. If UNLV wins the MWC this year, he’ll be somebody’s power conference HBC. The Rebels can win the league if Odom can find someone to get the ball to WR Ricky White III … Boise State has Southern Cal transfer Malchi Nelson as the QB and the league’s best RB in Ashton Jeanty. The Broncos might get killed at Oregon game two … Jeff Tedford has Fresno playing at a high level behind former UCF QB Mikey Keene … Air Force plays defense with its option offense that chews up clock. The Falcons are too hard to prep for in a week … Colorado State is overrated and Wyoming, despite a new head coach, is underrated … Bronco Mendenhall is coaching again, this time at New Mexico. If you’re looking for a possible darkhorse, this is it. Predicted top 4: 1. UNLV; 2. Boise State; 3. Fresno State; 4. Air Force

Sun Belt: They still play divisions in the Sun Belt. In the East, Appalachian State and James Madison are the faves, while in the West it’s Texas State and Arkansas State … App State should win the league with QB Joey Aguilar back as well as nine defensive starters. Aguilar is the best player in the league … James Madison has a new coach (Bob Chesney), a new QB (Dylan Morris) and 16 other new starters. The Dukes aren’t going to win 11 games again this year … Coastal Carolina lost Grayson McCall to NC State, Georgia State lost Cam Carroll to Missouri and Marshall lost 18 starters … Texas State has a new QB in JMU transfer Jordan McCloud and eight starters returning on defense. The Bobcats have the best running back in the league in Ismail Mahdi … Butch Jones got Arky State to a bowl game last year. This year the Red Wolves challenge Texas State for the West title … Louisiana’s offense will be very good. The defense has seven returning starters and a new DC in Jim Salgado. The Cajuns gave up 30 or more seven times last year. That’s where the improvement has to come for anything more than a break even record … Georgia Southern is another one that has to improve on defense for anything better than 6-6. Predicted top 4: 1. Appalachian State; 2. Texas State; 3. Arkansas State; 4. Louisiana

MAC: Miami gets back the best QB in the league (Blaine Gabbert), four starters on the O-line and the two best linebackers in the league in Matt Salopek and Ty Wise who combined for 265 tackles a year ago. The only losable games are at Notre Dame and at Toledo … Northern Illinois has to find a passing game to complement Antario Brown, the best running back in the league, but the Huskies return eight defensive starters … Toledo’s QB and stud running back transferred to power conference teams so it’s going to be somewhat of a rebuild for the Rockets, who still have the second best talent in the league … Scot Loeffler has done the unthinkable by taking Bowling Green to two straight bowl game. The Falcons are good enough to win seven games, eight if they’re lucky … Western Michigan is probably the fifth best team.  Predicted top 4: 1. Miami; 2. Northern Illinois; 3. Toledo; 4. Bowling Green

Conference USA: Jamey Chadwell’s offense has the perfect triggerman in Kaidon Salter who accounted for 44 TDs a year ago. There isn’t a defense in the league that will stop this offense and only one losable game (non-conference Appalachian State) … Rich Rodriguez led Jax State to nine wins last year. Even with a new QB (Logan Smothers) the Gamecocks will run the ball and win 8-9 games … Former Auburn, LSU and Texas State QB TJ Finley is at Western KY where they run an everybody out for a pass offense … Former Vandy head coach Derek Mason is the new HBC at Middle Tennessee, replacing longtime coach Rick Stockstill. When he was at Vandy his defenses were usually good and his offenses usually sucked. That’s probably what happens again, but if the defense is reasonably good the Blue Raiders might win six games … Florida International isn’t very good, but you don’t have to be very good to finish fourth in this league. Predicted top 4: 1. Liberty; 2. Jacksonville State; 3. Western Kentucky; 4. Middle Tennessee State

Independents: If Notre Dame can beat the Aggies in College Station game one, they might not lose again. The only tough games after the opener are Louisville, Florida State and (at) Southern Cal … Washington State and Oregon State weren’t invited to join either the Big Ten or Big 12, so they’re in never never land playing a mostly MWC schedule. They’re better than UConn or UMass … The ACC should have invited UConn years ago. Predicted top 4: 1. Notre Dame; 2. Washington State; 3. Oregon State; 4. UConn

THE 12 TEAMS THAT MAKE THE COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF

Georgia (SEC champs)

Alabama (at large, SEC)

Ole Miss (at large, SEC)

Texas (at large, SEC)

Ohio State (Big Ten champs)

Oregon (at large, Big Ten)

Iowa (at large, Big Ten)

Notre Dame (at large, independent)

Clemson (ACC champs)

Miami (at large, ACC)

Utah (Big 12 champs)

UNLV (MWC champs)