Pregame Analysis: Florida Gators (1-2,0-1) v. Miami Hurricanes (3-0,0-0)

The Gators take the trip down south for the first of Billy’s Last Stands.

By Loren Meadows, GatorBaitMedia.com, Football Analyst, Host of the Lowdown with Loren Meadows

Billy Napier is 20-21 at Florida and 1-3 against Miami and FSU( Chris Spears photo)

20-21. That is Billy Napier’s record including a 1-3 record against Florida’s most hated rivals. The Napier era came in with a bang with a lot of well thought out plans and attention to detail that has yielded a pre-modern era worst for the Florida Gators. Florida is on its last leg with its 4th coach since Pope Urban left the 352 and looks to be prepared to welcome its 5th.

Regardless of that the trip to Miami and subsequent games to follow will be played no matter what happens to Napier, and it was a similar situation last season where the next loss could have been the last. Napier somehow barricaded himself and his team within the walls of the Heavener Complex and fought off all comers to get his team to eight wins and one of the best turnarounds of 2024.

To do that again he will take his team to the home of fourth ranked Miami, a team that looks poised for a return to the success their head coach Mario Cristobal helped usher in as part of the Miami dynasty of the 80’s and early 90’s. Miami is stout up front on both sides of the ball and the defense is playing with an edge that makes you wonder what keeps that edge from finding its way to Napier’s bunch? Has the procession of doom started for Napier at Florida, or can he make one more stand as Florida heads into an off week? The next 48 hours will tell us a lot and as you will see, it won’t be easy. 

Miami Offense

Key Players: #11 QB Carson Beck (6-4, 225, R-Sr./Georgia), #4 RB Mark Fletcher Jr. (6-2, 225 Jr.), #6 RB CharMar Brown (5-11, 220, R-So/North Dakota State) #7 WR CJ Daniels (6-2, 205, R-Sr./Liberty/LSU), # WR Malachai Toney (5-11, 188, Fr.), #0 WR Keelon Marion (6-0,195 R-Sr./BYU/UConn), #61 OL Francis Mauigoa (6-6, 335, Jr.), #73 OL Anez Cooper (6-6, 345, Sr.)

Key Matchups: Miami Offensive Line v. Florida Defensive Line, Carson Beck v. Florida Secondary

Under offensive coordinator Shannon Dawson, who may well be on his way to a head coaching job the Miami offense has seen a resurgence that is reminiscent of past dominance. Cam Ward was a Heisman trophy candidate and #1 pick in the draft last season and Dawson has given Carson Beck full control of his system with the ability to choose from 3-4 plays at the line of scrimmage for optimal performance. While Beck is the head of the Ibis the dominant offensive line is its most important piece. This is a unit that protects Beck like the secret service and can lean on you in the run game. Miami is averaging 5.1 yards per rush and has surrendered just four sacks in the first three games of the season. The air raid hybrid offense has been a perfect fit for Beck who looks to be playing his best ball after returning from an injured shoulder suffered in last year’s playoffs at Georgia. Beck has thrown seven touchdowns against two picks and is 11th nationally in passer rating completing close to 80 percent of his throws. His top receivers, the trio of CJ Daniels, Malachai Toney, and Keelon Marion have big game experience and have combined for 42 catches and four touchdowns.

Look for Miami to find out if the Florida defensive front is up to the task with a heavy dose of Fletcher and Brown early. Should the Gators take the bait Dawson will look to dial up play actions with a crosser and a post behind it to entice the Florida safeties into the trap. Carson Beck threw three interceptions to the Gators last season and maybe should have thrown two more. Florida will look to confuse Beck with pre-snap movement and then move the frame again after the ball has been snapped. The Florida defense has played well this season surrendering just two touchdowns in three games. Unfortunately, they have only two sacks on the season and just three turnovers. If Florida can make Beck uncomfortable things could get interesting. Another 300 spot for Beck and the Gator fans head north to beat the traffic early. 

Miami Defense

Key Players: #4 DB Rueben Bain Jr. (6-3, 270, Jr.), #3 DL Akheem Mesidor (6-3, 265, R-Sr.), #11 DL David Blay Jr. (6-5, 305, 5th-Yr./Louisiana Tech/West Chester) #DL Ahmad Moten Sr. (6-3, 300, R-Jr., #1 LB Mohamed Toure (6-2, 235, Gr./Rutgers), #10 LB Raul Aguire Jr. (6-2, 240, Jr., #0 S Keionte Scott (6-0, 195 6^th Yr./Auburn) # S Jakobe Thomas (6’2, 200, 5th Yr./Tennessee/MTSU), #29 CB OJ Frederique Jr. (6-0, 185, Jr.)

Key Matchups: Bain v. Barber, DJ Lagway v. 7 Defenders in Pass Coverage

Just like the offense the Miami defense makes their money up front. Reuben Bain Jr. may be the best edge rusher in the country and is an early candidate for national honors. Miami has the talent to get home with just four pass rushers which allows the second and third levels to play free and create havoc. Defensive line coach Damione Lewis has the unit playing at high level after leading a Colorado unit that led the Big 12 in sacks in 2024. Miami struggled to get its defense off the field last season so defensive coordinator Corey Heatherman, Lewis, and former Florida DB coach Will Harris were brought in to retool the unit. 

Miami has blitzed its opponent’s 40 percent of the time while playing coverage (dropping 7 or more players) the rest of the time. Playing coverage means one of three things. You are great on early downs, you can get pressure with just four guys, or you are playing with an early lead. With Miami it is all of the above and that’s where they will look to make life hard on the Gators.  Lagway has struggled versus drop coverage to the tune of a 30% completion percentage. While many believe this is a bye product of bad footwork and bad play design, it is noticeable, nonetheless. Miami will look to get pressure with just four guys putting the Florida tackles and their much-maligned guard rotation at the center of attention. Lagway has been ineffective when scrambling so Napier will have to get his quarterback into simple short throws or run the ball to get Miami guessing. With an offensive system that no one seems to understand but Napier, and with no defined checks and balances don’t expect anything but struggles from Lagway. 

The Skinny: Miami is confident, Miami is talented, and Miami is better. Now that is not to say that the Gators who have a talented roster could not go in and get a huge win for the program and its coach, but I wouldn’t bet on it. Whatever the Napier era has been it has not been what was expected. With a million people in a Jordan shirt walking around the facility they have failed to make a dent where it matters most, on the field. The schedule is the toughest in the country, but it is also filled with some of the best football minds as well. Florida has failed to match those wits for 41 games and Saturday will most likely be no different. Florida has the talent to play with anyone in the country, and while the tools are built for the best tool box, it is carried in a box made by Fisher-Price. With no real efficient plan on offense and a quarterback who is criminally being stunted, the Gators will play hard, but it won’t be enough. Beck will come back to earth this week, but the offensive line for Florida has not and will not be enough to help the defense who will keep Florida in it. Off week and change to follow? At 1-3 its unfortunately, not if but when. 

Prediction: Miami 27 Florida 17