Pregame Analysis Florida Gators (3-3, 1-2) v. Kentucky Wildcats (3-3, 1-3)

The Lagway era begins at Florida on a date when many of its’ greatest return to The Swamp.

By Loren Meadows GatorBaitMedia.com, Football Analyst

Florida hasn't lost four straight games to Kentucly since 1950.

DJ Lagway makes his first SEC start this Saturday (Chris Spears photo)

Kentucky Offense

Key Players-#12 QB Brock Vandagriff (6-3, 217, Jr./Georgia), #2 QB Gavin Winsatt (6-3, 227, Jr./Rutgers) #0 RB Demi-Sumo Karngbaye (6-0, 210 Sr.), #10 RB Jamarion Wilcox (5-10, 197, R-Fr.) #4 RB Chip Trayanum (5-11, 227, Sr.), #6 WR Dane Key (6-3, 210, Jr.), #7 WR Barrion Brown (6-1, 182, Jr.), #85 TE Jordan Dingle (6-4, 242, Jr.), #74 OL Courtland Ford (6-6, 327, Sr.)

Matchups To Watch: Receivers Dane Key and Barrion Brown v. Devin Moore and Jason Marshall Jr., Kentucky Running Game v. Florida Front Seven

Brock Vandagriff has been up and down in his first year as the Kentucky’s starting quarterback. Vandagriff is completing 59.8 percent of his passes for 941 yards with five touchdowns against two interceptions. While on the plus side statistically, Vandergriff has struggled against SEC competition where his completion percentage drops to 55.6 percent. The struggles of Vandagriff have caused the Kentucky offense to rely on what they have done best under Mark Stoops, run the football. They do so with a two headed attack that features NC State transfer Demi-Sumo Karngbaye and redshirt freshman Jamarion Wilcox. The duo has rushed for 500 yards on the season which unfortunately is far below what one would expect from the Wildcats. Kentucky was expected to start Ohio State transfer Chip Trayanum at running back this season but he has been absent for Kentucky this season but could return this week. The rushing attack could also get a boost with the return of offensive lineman Courtland Ford who has played in 33 games with 14 starts at USC and Kentucky but has been absent so far this season with a wrist injury. His return could also help a Kentucky offensive line that has surrendered 13 sacks this season.

At receiver Vandagriff has one half of a sprint relay team with Dane Key and Barrion Brown. The highest rated receivers ever to play at Kentucky these two future pros have made their mark early in just two years in the program. At 6-3, Key is both a deep ball threat and a matchup problem in the red zone and Brown’s combination of speed and quickness allows Kentucky to utilize him in various ways including kick returns. Tight end Jordan Dingle is skilled but has been mainly used as a blocker this season to protect Vandagriff. He does have touchdown catches of 59 and 79 yards in his career so he could be a factor if he is able to get involved in the passing attack.

Kentucky is ranked 75th nationally in rushing offense while ranking 121st in passing. Numbers that don’t usually go with a Mark Stoops offense. Kentucky has struggled to protect the quarterback and all of a sudden, the Gators have found a pass rush. Look for Florida to sell out against the run with multiple looks and then pressure Vandagriff and his linemen with varied pressures to force punts and more importantly turnovers. The play of the Florida back end will be key as they have survived the explosive downfield plays the last three weeks of the season. Key and Brown are a different bunch and have cut their teeth with early success against some of the nation’s best defensive backs. The corners and safeties for Florida will definitely be tested. Does the defense continue its improvement or fall back to its woeful ways from earlier this season?

Devin Mooore (28) and Jack Pyburn (44) (Chris Spears photo)

Kentucky Defense

Key Players-#0 DL Deone Walker (6-6, 345 Jr.) #8 DL Octavious Oxedine (6-1, 278, Sr.) #13 OLB JJ Weaver (6-5, 255) #2 LB Jamon Dumas-Johnson (6-1, 245 Sr./Georgia) #54 LB D’Eryk Jackson (6-1, 244 Sr.), #90 DL Trey’vonn Rybka (6-4, 284, Sr.), #25 S Jordan Lovett (6-2, 205, Jr.), #6 DB JQ Hardaway 6-3, 191, Jr.) #14 DB Ty Bryant (6-0, 194, So.)

Matchups To Watch: Billy Napier v. Stoops Brothers/ Brad Smith, DJ Lagway v. JJ Weaver

The Kentucky defensive line may be the best in the SEC and is coached by arguably one of the nation’s best in former Wildcat Anwar Stewart. Deone Walker is arguably one of the top five defensive linemen in the country. The Preseason All-American has speed, quickness, and strength and has been a fixture on the Kentucky defensive line since his arrival in Lexington. Voted a captain as a true sophomore Walker is an alpha dog who can single handedly wreck an offensive run or pass play. He creates a challenge for any offense and Florida would do well to run away from him. Octavious Oxedine is a nice complement to Walker and a playmaker in his own right. Trey’vonn Rybka has played in 36 games at Kentucky and gives defensive coordinator Brad White another experienced player in the Kentucky front.

At linebacker JJ Weaver is a versatile player that can play the run as well as in space. He currently leads the team in sacks and also has a pass break-up, a forced fumble and a fumble recovery. Due to his versatility he may be called upon to spy Lagway in certain situations. D’Eryk Jackson has been a mainstay at middle linebacker with 21 consecutive starts. He has recorded at least one tackle in 23 straight games. His 33 tackles lead all Kentucky defenders. Georgia transfer Jamon Dumas Johnson has continued where he left off in Athens with 29 tackles and five for loss. Staunch in the trenches Johnson makes life difficult for opposing offensive linemen. At Georgia Dumas-Johnson never lost a game in which he started and was named to the 2024 Butkus Award Watch List for his efforts. Safety Jordan Lovett is the quarterback of a secondary that also JQ Hardaway and Ty Bryant. Lovett has 27 tackles and despite boundary corner Maxwell Hairston being listed as out this week the Kentucky secondary will look to confuse and harass DJ Lagway in his first conference start and dominate the Florida receivers. 

Statistically this will be the best defense that the Gator have played this season. Brad White’s unit ranks in the Top 15 nationally in every major defensive category and is ranked 4th overall. This unit is fast, physical and plays with discipline. Despite early losses the defense has surrendered more than 20 points only once and held Ole Miss to just 17 points sacking Jaxson Dart four times. Florida was dominated by the Kentucky defense in Lexington last year and with DJ Lagway at the helm the freshman quarterback will have to play patient mistake free football and the offensive line will need to play much better than they did a year ago. Points could be at a premium in this game and if Florida fails to match the physicality of Kentucky it could be another tough evening at The Swamp. 

The Skinny: Florida is 33-4 in their last 37 games against Kentucky. Unfortunately they have only won 2 of the last 6 including three straight losses. Florida looked overmatched and outcoached in last years 33-14 beatdown where running back Ray Davis may still be running. Another lackluster, unmotivated performance on the resume’ of Coach Billy Napier. In many ways this game has taken on the same tenor as UCF two weeks ago. Must win by any means necessary. Last week Florida allowed another one to slip away against Tennessee in a game with question marks littered all over it. Now with alumni and others descending upon Gainesville, Florida faces possibly its only winnable game until the crew travels to Tallahassee in late November. This is a game that Florida could easily win or lose but the head-scratching occurrences need to stop. No Florida coach since 1950 has lost three straight games to Kentucky, and on Saturday Billy Napier will be handing the keys to a talented but unproven driver. Florida will need Lagway to do just enough with his legs and arm and don’t turn it over. Punt and allow an improving defense to force Vandagriff to make the mistakes. Kentucky has been good enough on defense to keep them in every game but one and they will do so again on Saturday. Florida however will find a way to solve the puzzle with four scores and Lagway begins his ascension with homecoming win. Vandagriff struggles, Florida gets two turnovers and a win. 

Prediction: Florida 24 Kentucky 17